Tuesday, Sep 23, 2008
Of echelons and Peerless
Times: Resale of the century
As a £10m house is repossessed, it’s clear that nobody’s safe from property-price pain
Posted by confused76 @ 12:36 PM (681 views) Add Comment
13 Comments
- If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
- If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
- Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
- Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
- Please adhere to the Guidelines
1. drewster said...
Nice post!
Phil Spencer (Location*3) is quoted:
"Until last Monday, it looked good. There was a bit more liquidity and more competition between banks. What has happened has set us back a long way. Any recovery is put on hold. We’re no longer looking at the end of next year, but 2010."
I like how the target dates keep shifting further and further away. As Merryn Somerset Webb writes,
"The financial world has a magic number – 18 [months]. At every turn in this crisis, from the first signs of subprime cracks early last year to this week, I've been told that after a tricky 18 months, all will turn out well."
It's a nice number, 18 months. Far away enough that things could really have changed by then; but close enough that we all know we can survive 18 months of hardship without too much trouble. If the prediction was for three or five or seven years of pain, people would find it harder to adjust.
2. Will said...
"...with people trying to call the bottom of the market"
Wow, I thought it had only just begun.
3. Will said...
Phil Spencer denied the market would ever turn down.
Now he thinks it will be over in 18 months.
He knows nothing.
4. Landedgentry said...
Phil Spencer (Location*3)
"We’re no longer looking at the end of next year, but 2010."
Dream On*3
5. beartil2010 said...
So... if the whole property chain is supported from the top by city bonuses... and the regulation will increase and the world is in credit meltdown... will this add significantly to the size of the valuation reductions? Would this turn 30% into 40%, or 40% into 50%? Any opinions on this from anyone?
6. Still-waiting said...
Be realistic. 20 to 30% drop overall, then in about 4 or 5 years, will start increasing again.
7. japanese uncle said...
Again, 11 million for 6 bed house (not even detached) is simply madness, even though Holland Park is not a bad place at all.
Lunatic City bonueses and an army of traders seeking the crust of bread from those 'sahibs' drove the price up to this realm.
90% HPC here is inevitable. Period.
8. drewster said...
bear,
For me the lesson is this: nowhere is immune from the crash. A year ago the 'experts' were saying that the crash would remain confined to new-build BTL flats in Liverpool or Sheffield, and that London would clearly be safe. (The Americans held similar beliefs, thinking that while Cleveland, Ohio was obviously a HPC disaster-zone, New York and LA would never suffer.) Now it turns out that even bankers have mortgages, and even bankers can lose their jobs. Nowhere is immune.
9. mark wadsworth said...
JU, you are confusing two things.
The value of bricks and mortar is fairly stable over time. The value of bricks and mortar will not fall or rise significantly.
Underlying LAND values may well fall by 90% - in the early 1990s crash they fell by two-thirds. If land values reverted to mid-1990s prices, that would imply a fall of 75% to 90%, depending on exactly how you measure it and what sort of area you are looking at.
10. japanese uncle said...
mw
Just watch the horror story unfolding in front of us. 25% overall HPC from the peak by the end/March/09 seems sure thing now. What did people say about this prediction a year ago, eh?
11. inbreda said...
well JU, I seem to remember being called an idiot.
12. beartil2010 said...
25% is the minimum - unfortunately we are starting to move into proper economic pain now with more unemployment, a proper recession - things will continue to slide.
I am still thinking 35-40% end product, meaning 45% real terms with inflation added
13. str 2007 said...
There seems to be about 10-15% difference between the various forms of measuring the falls.
Surprisingly some are only showing 3% off to date which is surprising.
I can certainly site examples of 25% off asking prices, however I can also site Sept2007 asking prices +15%.
I'll still stick with 20-25% falls and look forward to every index showing this. By which time no doubt Haliwide will be showing -30%+
I'm wanting to revise my prediction up but there's plenty of time for that yet. (I was glad to hear on the Fred Harrison post earlier today that preserving ones savings at present by keeping them in the bank and using interest to counter inflation was the best policy at present).