Monday, Sep 22, 2008
Is this the death of capitalism?
MoneyWeek: Is this the death of capitalism?
"...when it comes to paying for the global property bubble, it won't just be those who over-extended themselves to buy over-priced houses who suffer. And it won't just be the bankers who sold them the loans. It'll be you, me, and every other mug who ever paid a penny in taxes to governments who blatantly ramped the idea of property ownership as a right."
Posted by damien @ 11:53 AM (1147 views) Add Comment
49 Comments
- If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
- If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
- Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
- Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
- Please adhere to the Guidelines
1. sold 2 rent 1 said...
All you Calleman-deniers take note.
He predicted massive destruction between Nov 2007 - Nov 2008
But this is just the warm-up.
Nov 2009 - Nov 2010 will be another extremely rough period
But summer/autumn 2011 will blow yout mind completely.
I am guessing that most of you now see the world in a different light from 1 year ago.
Could you call this a change of consciousness?
2. icarus said...
He makes the classic Austrian School case - governments and central banks should stay out of it and let the market set interest rates. Then he brings government back into it in a big way - regulate the financial sector and cap its profits. The Austrians argue that without artificially high credit creation by central banks there will be no systemic problem and no need for governments to step in to 'solve' it.
3. handle_it said...
" But summer/autumn 2011 will blow yout mind completely."
Could you be more specific ? What will blow my mind ? And choosing two whole seasons seems a little cheeky for a prediction. Actually yes I do see the world differently ! How did you know I've got new glasses ? You're very good...
4. beartil2010 said...
Banks can create repeated money multiplication without the central banks surely by lending to each other.
Regulation is always required for any free market to be efficient. There is a difference between 'regulation' and interference, which I think is key.
5. nooneo said...
sold 2 rent @ 1
"I am guessing that most of you now see the world in a different light from 1 year ago. Could you call this a change of consciousness?" - Only time will tell s2r1. My whole problem with Calleman and others is that I simply don't believe in fate (or luck) and as such I think it is a physical impossibility to actually do anything other than vaguely predict anything with an accurate timescale. I do think that $800 billion dollars possibly buys an awful lot of time at the american taxpayers expense.
I'm guessing that a lot of businessmen and traders are now having to take a change of underwear with them to work nowadays, in case their bottom lines give way!
6. sold 2 rent 1 said...
handle_it,
"Could you be more specific? What will blow my mind? "
Specific predictions are almost always wrong (as I have learnt), but having read "The Transformation of Consciousness" I think the destruction will be less physical (low death count) but more mental.
Calleman studied the Mayan Calendar but I have recently been discovered the work of Terrance McKenna who developed Timewave Zero from the King Wen sequence of the I-Ching (Chinese).
Although there is still a discrepancy of what the actual end-date is? Both theories subscribe to the exponential change model where events happening now resonate with previous times in history.
As McKenna says, "The rise and fall of hemlines in the 20 century maps to the rise and fall of empires 1000s of year ago”
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8701042459684666916
7. mrmickey said...
I have a change of consciousness after several pints of Old Rosie on a Saturday night.
8. handle_it said...
Empires rise and fall but it's because what happens not what has to happen. I know a little about i-ching and it's not fortune telling. More like looking from the top of a mountain instead of looking from the valley. Events aren't predetermined.
9. icarus said...
@4 - the Austrians would argue that commercial banks can create credit but they are encouraged to do so, or discouraged from doing so, by credit conditions set by central banks and bond markets.
10. James said...
s2r1 - Correlation does not imply causation. Seriously, think about it.
You don't seem to get that, whilst you can 'map hemlines to the rise and fall of empires', it tells you nothing about either. I'm fairly certain I could map my bowel movements to your postings, for example. What would it tell us?
As you say... "Specific predictions are almost always wrong (as I have learnt)" - this is because your 'model' is wrong.
Unless you can make falsifiable predictions, it just isn't a useful model. To this exact point - show me where you predicted the events of last week. If you can (though I don't think I saw it...) I'll show you a number of instances where you were flat wrong. As such - your model is right no more than we would expect than we would expect from something utterly random.
11. paul said...
sold2rent1. I am reading an excellent book at the moment called Irrationality by Stuart Sutherland.
He cites an example of citizens of a doctors conclusion in the 1950s that high rates of milk consumption in certain US cities has led to an increased incidence of cancer, with statistical evidence to support the assertion. However it was flawed - the cities he cited were prosperous (they could afford milk) so the longevity of the citizens was also longer and consequently they died of cancer because nothing else killed them. The conclusion was rational, but wrong.
I think your connections between things thousands of years ago like the Mayan calendar and now are similar. Things grow and shrink naturally and autonomously - but not because of each other.
12. larry pickleman said...
all nations fall.
13. plato said...
"I am guessing that most of you now see the world in a different light from 1 year ago."
Well Yes!.........Mankind (bit worried about the 'kind' bit) in general is far worse than I ever thought and far more stubborn than I ever imagined. Everything else though is still the same and quite a pleasure to be with.
14. Friend_of_the _stars said...
Has anyone else noticed that everything changes, constantly, in relation to something. House prices, inflation, law, politics, the amount of traffic on the M62. The entire universe is in a constant state of flux. Consciousness, either individual or collective, has evolved, and continues to evolve, since time immemorial. If we are conscious, fully awake, we may be able to glean the importance of events around us as they unfold, and do the right thing. Most humans, sadly, continue to do as they are told, without recourse to morality. S2R1, you could change your consciousness now, if you so wanted. Why wait??
15. last_days_of_disco said...
@paul
Thank you paul, very succinct.
@icarus
I think you are miss-interpreting the article. He says the best solution is to get rid of central banks altogether. The alternative is to make banking a public
amenity. And then he says that the first option is his preference. He remarks that in reality we will get neither. Some half in between bodge that will just
allow the problem to perpetuate itself.
16. george monsoon said...
17. Amos said...
The idea that the solution to the current problem is even less regulation with no central bank influencing affairs
is just more Money Week nuttiness.
Free financial markets do not regulate themselves and achieve equilibrium, they freeze up at periodic intervals, always.
18. george monsoon said...
But what does it all mean.. and why is there nothing after 2011??
19. icarus said...
LDOD - I know what you're saying It'd just that the para is a bit ambiguous. On the one hand he talks about 'the alternative' (to letting the market set IRs) but then he writes 'if it really is the case that banking is too important.....' (a proposition with which he seems to agree) then regulation is the answer'. Can be read two ways.
20. george monsoon said...
21. Landedgentry said...
CaptCrunch
http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/crunch.jpg/55802_CaptCrunch.jpg
22. japanese uncle said...
Books written by neither John Callman nor Eustace Mullins are available in the UK, the so called oldest democracy. Luckily I managed to obtain Japanese versions. Callman's works have a lot of redundant/repetitive parts and not well refined, whereas Eustace Mullins' works are much better organized and perfectly documented. (Though Calloman is obviously pointing out very important issues based on update info). Those who are denouncing their works as 'conspiracy theories' without even reading them, may wish to address the inadequacy of their own intellectual capacity.
23. sold 2 rent 1 said...
japanese uncle
"John Callman" ??????
I was refering to Carl Johan Calleman
24. japanese uncle said...
s2r
Sorry for getting confused.
25. theboltonfury said...
@18 - they are not available because they are rubbish
26. sold 2 rent 1 said...
george monsoon,
"But what does it all mean.. and why is there nothing after 2011??"
If time (the fourth dimension) can be traversed like we can traverse our other 3 dimensions then life goes on but it will be very different.
This would explain why the Mayan Calendar ends
This videos explains how to visualise the tenth dimension
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-97057222894136590
Maybe global enlightenment is about reaching (in your own consciousness) the tenth dimension?
27. sold 2 rent 1 said...
theboltonfury,
"they are not available because they are rubbish"
Have you broken another guitar string today?
28. theboltonfury said...
not done that for a while
I am just mystified about how you can be so guided by a Swedish nutjob, who has been derided by everyone who has studied his work. He is nothing more than a Scandinavian Russell Grant. Although we don't agree you clearly are an intelligent person - so how do you get taken in so wholeheartedly by this guy?
29. jamonit said...
Handle it said: Events aren't predetermined.
Two things spring to mind. One is that I can well believe that everything is subject to cycles. Empires rise and fall, plants grow and fade, climte warms and cools, suns are born and die. And stock markets rise and fall. If this cyclical nature of things dose apply to everything, then in the broadest sense, it's surely possible that declines can be predetermined.
Secondly, if I understand the word correctly [and please correct me otherwise] all system suffer entropy, namely the gradual loss of energy. They tend towards disorganisation. Our society is a system. Furthermore, as an article in New Scientist reported recently, the more complex systems become, the more vulnerable they become. We, it seems, tend to compensate for the entropy factor by increasing the complexity of our system, but that may be no help as it makes us more vulnerable and so increases the liklihood of collapse...so, again, perhaps it is, in the broadest sense, possible that things are predetermined...not events but trends.
So I'm not willing to scotch ol' s2r1's stuff quite so readily.
30. icarus said...
boltonfury 3.06 pm. If that were the criterion there'd be a lot less in the shops.
31. theboltonfury said...
icarus, you've obvioulsy not read Angel by Jordan. A truly great piece of writing
32. icarus said...
boltonfury - yep, puts Homer to shame. I was thinking of STUFF in shops in general.
33. theboltonfury said...
fair point. How is Calleman any difference from the fad a few years ago of the Bible Code. Essentially a load of noise created by someone trying to sell a few book and fill a couple of auditoriums
Any truth in the Bible Code, nope - nothing proven. Infact they found that you could make equal predictions about things that have happened by applying a sequential formula to Hamlet
34. sold 2 rent 1 said...
jamonit,
"so, again, perhaps it is, in the broadest sense, possible that things are predetermined...not events but trends"
Substitute "trends" for "global consciousness" and you are spot on.
35. sold 2 rent 1 said...
theboltonfury,
Whilst Calleman's work is centre to my understanding of what is going on in the world today, it is the journey to how I found it that makes me believe it.
The "joining of the dots" is a lengthy process and Calleman's "dot" is the biggest by far.
Howver without the other smaller dots to reinforce his ideas his book would not make sense.
36. theboltonfury said...
does he also do the horoscpoes in the Swedish Daily Star?
37. handle_it said...
jamonit @ 25. If I throw a ball in the air it's not unreasonable to predict it will fall to the ground. However,how far it will travel and at what speed are not predictable. This is not a cycle or a trend. Also I chose to throw the ball, or not to have done so.
38. Chilli said...
How does the market determine interest rates? I can understand how the market might set the price of a share but a share has a limited supply. That's the point, the value is a function of the supply and demand.
I don't see how high inflation will cause the banks to charge higher interest rates, when they can print all the money they like. The supply of fiat currency has to be controlled somehow.
Please don't say we have to back it with something - that has its own problems.
39. jamonit said...
Actually, Handle it, you could very easily predict how far it will travel and at what speed.
40. handle_it said...
Every single time ?
41. James said...
Oh good! We've got that condescending 'joining up the dots' guff again. Let's remind ourselves of those dots (because it's funny/worrying):
Calleman/Lungold, Armstrong, Kondratieff, Fred Harrison, Robert Prechter, Oswald Spengler, 600 year gold graph, Elliott waves, 300 year debt graphs, 300 year stock graphs, 9/11, energy suppression, hemp suppression, bogus MM global waming, chem trails, drugs suppression, food/water poisoning, 2012 (or 2011), secret societies, religion, ancient civilisations, UFOs, Hollywod movies, monatomic gold, electromagnetic energy, water powered cars, consciousness, metaphysics, God etc etc etc.........
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2008/08/blog-uk-house-prices-could-easily-decline-pc-from-the-peak-16302.php?comment=added
Some vaguely rational stuff, some odd stuff, some lunacy. Mainly, whichever video he last saw on youtube, or whatever crackpot website he last looked up.
42. george monsoon said...
If time is the fourth Dimension, why can I slow down time by watching the clock in my office?
43. george monsoon said...
If time is the fourth Dimension, why can I slow down time by watching the clock in my office?
44. Jamonit said...
If you know the energy and trajectory, yes. But anyway, I said that trends were predictable, not events. Although events would presumably come to be typical of trend based circumstances, so even some events might be predictable. [eg climate change - drier weather - poorer harvets - price of wheat higher (given no other variables)]
George, interesting [and slightly above my head] discussion about the nature of conciousness in there.
45. jamonit said...
If you know the energy and trajectory, yes. But anyway, I said that trends were predictable, not events. Although events would presumably come to be typical of trend based circumstances, so even some events might be predictable. [eg climate change - drier weather - poorer harvets - price of wheat higher (given no other variables)]
George, interesting [and slightly above my head] discussion about the nature of conciousness in there.
46. jamonit said...
S2R1 - beware the easy use of the word consciousness, read The User Illusion by Tor Nooretranders. Chewy...but I think I got the gist.
47. handle_it said...
Suffice to say events or trends(whatever)can't be predicted. We're talking about about the end of civilization or a new consciousness. No civilization has ever ended just evolved. The changes that have taken place in any civilization have arisen from infinite interaction from internal and external forces. You can't predict the speed and height of a ball thrown into the air any more than you can predict how one individual would react in a society. Also consciousness is subjective and isn't ever experienced as part of a whole. I'm sure those who take comfort in predictions from a calendar will continue to do so until they see fit, regardless of what I or countless others might say. Any spiritual awakening will happen to people one at a time, not collectively or by the hand of vengeful deity.
48. planning4acrash said...
S2R1, its quite clear what will happen. Central banks have bailed out the system. After November we will have calm, for a year, until Nov8th next year, when the Central Banks and the power centres of the elite, e.g. derivatives, the United Nations, the EU, Chinese Communism, North American Union Apparatus, will enter terminal decline. All those who have not stocked up on real assets, gold, productive land, productive industry and hardware, etc by that time, all those tied to illusionary fiat wealth generation, and illusionary power via the Babylonian pyramid, will be the ones who loose their wealth. There could be a witch hunt too. I just hope that skirmishes between the US, Israel and Russia at Georgia and Ukraine don't move into a third world war.
We may need to find ways to save our skins, storable foods, water filtration, independence, otherwise you will be reliant on government, which will feed you GMO's and force mercury injections to save you against their imaginary Bird Flu epidemic, when infact it will be the inoculation that will kill you. Note, you cannot create a vaccine against a future epidemic, you can only do it post event. Yet they claim to already have one!! Either it is a bio-weapon, or we will be shown the same chicken dying a million times on telly and, come get your nice shot, which, low and behold, not only gave your cousin autism a few years back, but now gives you bird flu!! http://www.healthfreedomusa.org/ for more of the real info on bird flu.
49. jamonit said...
omg