Monday, Sep 22, 2008
Fred Harrison and The 18-Year Cycle In Property
Commodity Watch Radio: Fred Harrison
In the latest Commodity Watch Radio Fred Harrison, The Renegade Economist, discusses the 18-Year Property Cycle and suggests ways for Gordon Brown, or whoever should succeed him, to avoid boom and bust in the future.
Plus Michael Hampton aka Dr Bubb shares his views on Fred's cycle and the London property market.
Posted by frizzers @ 11:39 PM (1503 views) Add Comment
9 Comments
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1. amjidk said...
Great analysis..
2. techieman said...
download this and play it every once in a while. Play it to your kids and your grand kids.
3. frizzers said...
LOL
4. str 2007 said...
That was worth a listen.
frizzers was that LOL you don't believe a word of it ?
5. Dbc Reed said...
It's a pity that all the conspiracy theorists who are making this site increasingly unattractive in their futile attempts to encourage a return to the Gold Standard do n't take a look at Fred Harrison aka the Renegade Economist whose theories are extreme enough but based on well-established analyses of land values which have more immediate relevance to house prices.His idea of the eighteen-year cycle sounds far-fetched,( though not as far-fetched as the abolish credit-creation way to prosperity ceaselessly propounded by the usual suspects) but it did lead Harrison to correctly identify the year that the economy started to go down the pipes. For which he should be given some credibility.
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9. Nearabbeyroad said...
Fred Harrison's series of videos on YouTube are well worth watching. What Fred is talking about is not far fetched at all. It is well establish economic theory dating back over 100 years.Land value Tax, made popular by American Henry George in the late 1800s. The game that was the precursor of Monopoly, The Landlord's Game, was designed to teach people about Land value Tax and the theories of Henry George.
Fred speak lots of sense. Land Value Tax was implemented in Pennsylvania to great effect. Land values have paid for infrastructure in Harrisburg and empty lots and run-down buildings disappeared in Pittsburgh. LVT auto controls and keep land prices affordable. Land is currently not taxed. Labour is taxed and Capital is but not land. If implemented now, the government will service the debt to bail out banks. With LVT income tax is abolished, giving incentives for people to work. LVT is charged on the 'value' of 'all' land.
If speculators can't make use of the land, then they sell. If land is hoarded they pay LVT. Hoarding land becomes uneconomic. Currently much is hoarded - 700,000 homes in the UK as whole. Developers have land banks. LVT will spread land ownership naturally by the market. You need to make use of the land to pay the LVT due. If you do not make productive use of the land you sell to someone who makes productive use. LVT puts a brake on spiralling land values and more boom and busts.
Land values increase because of community activity, infrastructure, which was paid for by the communities taxes. The owners of land did nothing to raise the land values.
LVT:
1. Does not tax those who are productive and inject into the economy - wages and interest on savings are not taxed. Your work created by yourself.
2. Taxes those you take out of the economy - the values of land created by others.