Monday, Aug 18, 2008
UK house prices could easily decline 50pc from the peak
The Telegraph: Dollar surge will not stop America feeling the effects of a global crunch
"The UK housing event is probably second only to the Japanese 1990 land bubble in the Real Estate Bubble Hall of Fame. UK house prices could easily decline 50pc from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income," he said.
"If prices go all the way back to trend, and history says that is extremely likely, then the UK financial system will need some serious bail-outs and the global ripples will be substantial."
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:00 AM (1767 views) Add Comment
21 Comments
- If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
- If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
- Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
- Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
- Please adhere to the Guidelines
1. sold 2 rent 1 said...
The USD index and US T-bond yield bottomed in mid-march (Martin Armstrong's low)
It looks like we could see a rebound in US stocks going into the high in April 2009 when foreign money flows back into the US.
After next spring we get the death plunge in Armstrong's model to the possible end-of-money scenario in summer 2011
2. malct said...
closing statement from article
"So no, this painful ordeal is far from over. We are not witnessing a dollar rally so much as a collapse in European and commodity currencies. The race to the bottom has begun in earnest"
and a Roubini quote from sold out's article below -
But most important, in Roubini’s opinion, is to realize that the problem is deeper than the housing crisis.
“Reckless people have deluded themselves that this was a subprime crisis,” he told me. “But we have problems with credit-card debt, student-loan debt, auto loans, commercial real estate loans, home-equity loans, corporate debt and loans that financed leveraged buyouts.” All of these forms of debt, he argues, suffer from some or all of the same traits that first surfaced in the housing market: shoddy underwriting, securitization, negligence on the part of the credit-rating agencies and lax government oversight. “We have a subprime financial system,” he said, “not a subprime mortgage market.”
3. growler said...
... there is not a lot you can say here. But I note he has used the word "negligence on the part of the credit-rating agencies". Which means the lenders have not been duly diligent.
4. mountain goat said...
Interesting how there is fuel for a pretty big US dead cat bounce - "US industry is now super-competitive, if small. Mid East funds are drawing up shopping lists of Wall Street takeover targets. Airbus and Volkswagen are shifting plant to America to escape crushing labour costs. US exports have risen 22pc over the past year, outstripping Chinese growth. The US non-oil trade deficit has shrunk by two fifths since 2002. It is now running at $300bn a year. This is 2.1pc of GDP."
So S2R's prediction model could be on to something.
5. beartil2010 said...
Look at some of the other articles over the last few days - the European and other central banks have bought 4x the normal volume of US currency over the last 3 weeks, precipitated by the US administration calling the PPT together - currency manipulation plain and simple.
This is an artifical bounce that is helping to sway sentiment, and is deliberately timed in terms of the equity markets, gold & oil prices, and the move to place a missile base in Poland under the cover of 'Russian aggression' on Georgia - which is actually American aggression.
I sound like a conspiracy nut, but them's the facts! There has been no sudden change in corporate news or trade numbers to buoy the US dollar whatsoever - lots of people are buying US dollars, but it's not traders, it's the central banks.
6. japanese uncle said...
Presumably, 'easily 50%' means 68% overall, 80% in the hot spots. Meanwhile 'second only to' Japanese 1990 land bubble' may better be rephrased like 'much worse than'.
7. plato said...
5. beartil2010 said..."I sound like a conspiracy nut, but them's the facts!"
You sound like a man who knows what he's talking about to me.
8. sold 2 rent 1 said...
beartil2010,
"I sound like a conspiracy nut, but them's the facts!"
Joining the dots is what it's all about.
Once you have joined enough of them, your consciousness will change.
That's one more blogger to be sectioned.
Soon we will all be locked up under constant 24 hour watch, and maybe shipbuilder and a few similars will be holding the keys. - LOL
9. James said...
Simple questions for you s2r1 - That graph you posted (like you've done before) has no y axis scale. Wat is it? If the 2011.45 point is the 'end of money', why aren't the 2002.85 (etc.)? It can't be because that's the end of the graph, because it only starts in 1985 and 'money' existed long before that...
Your odd little theories don't even make sense in themselves, never mind challenging 'mainstream' economics.
10. growler said...
I don't think it's conspiracy theory - it's the ONLY theory to get us out of a hole caused by severe governmental inadequacies. Which government wants to admit they've let rampant lending cause delayed and highly geared inflationary pressures? That same policy has also destabalised all of industry as confidence in all but cash is falling as many people start to default undermining credit backed securities. So - if you know the markets doubt anything but holding folding - policy to increase the value of one of the worlds most influencial currencies (lets be honest - the dollar still is) will help. That's all great - but if your commercial model is based entirely on perceived demand - it's a very dodgy basis.
11. mountain goat said...
Never mind conspiracy theories. Whoever, bought those USD 3 weeks ago made a good investment!
12. sold 2 rent 1 said...
James,
I just connected the dots of many items to get "the end of money" in 2011
The dots are Calleman/Lungold, Armstrong, Kondratieff, Fred Harrison, Robert Prechter, Oswald Spengler, 600 year gold graph, Elliott waves, 300 year debt graphs, 300 year stock graphs, 9/11, energy suppression, hemp suppression, bogus MM global waming, chem trails, drugs suppression, food/water poisoning, 2012 (or 2011), secret societies, religion, ancient civilisations, UFOs, Hollywod movies, monatomic gold, electromagnetic energy, water powered cars, consciousness, metaphysics, God etc etc etc.........
Only you can connect your own dots.
13. rickyb said...
s2r1,
Can you explain the Martin Armstrong graph in your own words please, without referring to me some other website? It's not clear to me why PI * 1000 earth days defines the length of these Armstrong business cycles.
14. James said...
If ever anyone needed proof that s2r1's a nut - there it is. Besides anything else - post 12. A laundry list of internet garbage for the weak-minded, soaked up by him.
AND - no response to the actual question. Try them one at a time - what's the y axis s2r1?
15. sold 2 rent 1 said...
rickyb,
What Armstrong discovered is that "the world" as a whole is not a set of random events but is following a specific path at the global level.
Why PI * 1000? I don't know? It took him 30 years to even realise this fact.
What is important is not the 1000 multiplier number, but the metaphysical nature of his model, and how it relates to the "other dots"
16. rickyb said...
s2r1,
I don't understand why someone who claims to be searching for some form of higher "consciousness" can accept something like this Martin Armstrong theory without even bothering to question or even investigate the theory further. Surely the point of a "new consciousness" is not to just blindly accept what we are told by other people, but to try to understand and question. Perhaps understanding is less important to you than blind faith.
17. holding out said...
rickyb, What you're forgetting is that these theories have been posted on YouTube and Google and are therefore beyond question. If they had only appeared in some pifflling rag such as the Lancet then they would indeed be open to question.
Most people would listen to all the arguments but give more weighting to reputable sources. It would seem that conspiraloons only give weighting to sources which tell them what they want to hear.
18. uncle tom said...
Having spent the last eight days in the USA, I am pretty confident that our cousins across the pond are going to handle this downturn with far less pain than we do.
They're treating the whole thing like a storm warning, a nuisance rather than a crisis - batten down the hatches and stay indoors until it blows over.
In general, they are far more self reliant, and far more in touch with their families and communities should they get into a financial mess. With bigger houses, it is far less inconveniant to put up firends or relatives who have got into difficulty, and even working class Americans tend to regard begging off the state as being beneath their dignity.
They almost seem to relish the challenge.
Strange how Americans abroad are rarely good company, yet on their home turf they are some of the most pleasant and polite people on the planet..
19. uncle tom said...
I'll qualify that last sentence - any American in uniform is a pain in the backside, at home or abroad!
20. sold 2 rent 1 said...
rickyb,
Read this
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html
and the comments below the article
The key statement Armstrong makes is
"As long as not everyone believes, the cycle will exist forever"
IMHO in 2011 we will all believe in it, but then it will have finished and served its purpose.
21. denzil said...
Completely concur UT, on all your points. Whilst the UK employer is suffering during 09-10, that could be a good time to look stateside. The US are about 12-18 months ahead of us, so while we are in the doldrums the US will pulling through.