Sunday, Aug 17, 2008
No More Spin
Guardian: Things will get worse: you can bet the house on it
...the property boom which began to gather pace in the mid-1990s, and more than tripled house prices in a decade, turns to bust.... part of the reason house prices have turned so quickly since last autumn is that, deep down, we all half knew the market had gone mad. Now, analysts are scrambling over each other to increase their predictions of how far prices could fall from their peak.
Posted by pendulum @ 08:29 AM (862 views) Add Comment
13 Comments
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1. Tenyearstogetmymoneyback said...
Good article
However, no mention of the effect of buy to let or second homes.
To Seema Shah's comments I would add
"Other people bought more houses than they actually needed to live in thinking (as I'm sure the Inside Track leaflet said) it was a one way bet to easy street.
:- Duncan
2. Confused76 said...
'We're in a period where house prices are clearly adjusting to a new level, and buyers and sellers are struggling to find out what that new level is,' he said. 'The market will determine it, not us or the government. Once we've reached that level, prices should normalise. But that does not mean back to levels seen early last year that were clearly excessive.' Mervyn King
3. Confused76 said...
But clearly that does not apply to me, here and now is different, new era, special place, watch my space...
"Back in Solihull, not everyone is pessimistic. David Poole, director of upmarket chain Savills, is putting on a brave face and says that at the top end of the market, things are holding up quite well.
'We won't sell anything below £500,000 here,' he says proudly, 'We have a lot of footballers from Birmingham City and Aston Villa, along with their managers, who move here and when old players move out we sell their houses.'
sure I am counting the days Savilllssss and Poxtons are going out of business... what a pleasure to watch!
4. Confused76 said...
"Meanwhile, couples browsing for electronics and perfumes in the opulent shopping arcade down the road say buying a home is still too expensive as far as they're concerned - they'd rather go on holiday instead"
HAH AHAHHA AHH AAHHH HAH HAAAAAAAAA HAAAA
"they'd rather go on holiday instead"... like I do with all the subsidy paid by my landlord! Very smart answer! Great! Thank you landlord!
5. Eternal Sceptic said...
This website has had much flak for being a prophet of doom in the past, perhaps realist would have been a better description.
6. paul said...
'Not only home owners, but also first-time buyers, probably react to the housing slide by feeling impoverished [in the short term], saving more and spending less.'
Not sure that sliding house prices impoverish FTBs.
7. Prof said...
I`m very familiar with the Solihull area. It has always been a bit posh (at least the people who live there think it is). When I`ve been spreading the "doom and gloom", like a good HPC`er should, one of the responses I`ve often had is "yes, but prices won`t fall, or fall as much in good areas. Property will always be in demand in good locations".
Oh yeh ?
Miller and her colleague look up hopefully as a customer comes in, but Paula Parker, a mother of three, has already sold her house. 'It took me a year,' she says, 'I had to lower the asking price from £320,000 to £250,000'.
As usual, estate agents still can`t see the obvious, they blame the credit crunch, the government, the lenders, the weather, anything but asking prices. Why not have a short, sharp, shock ? Knock 25% off all the property on their books, that might get things moving again. No, make that 40%. LOL !
8. japanese uncle said...
The size of the HPC should be no less than 60% overall and even 80% in the 'hot spots'. It's simply inevitable what has trebled without reason must shrink by 66% after all. An illusion of a gallactic scale.
9. little professor said...
O RLY? Here's just one of his properties that has had its price slashed:
10. mark said...
jones chapman estate agents were closed yesterday , they had notices on window saying they were too busy showing properties and were short staffed, so shop had to close!!!!..................hmmmmmmm and the real reason is?
11. nooneo said...
Mark @ 10
I think a lot of agents have let so many staff go that they have no cover when doing evaluations or when doing veiwings. I expect a lot more of this as they try to hang on to their busineses !
12. montesquieu said...
@ littleprofessor
Indeed - according to propertysnake, £795k, 8% reduction, 118 days on the market.
Not the only one - 109 price drops in solihull post code B91. Admittedly not nearly so many as in some crummy areas but it's only a matter of time.
13. Peeps said...
'Karen Ward, chief UK economist at HSBC, says the value of housing has a natural limit, set by people's incomes'
and that natural limit was reached 7 years ago IMHO.