Friday, Aug 29, 2008
Land Registry says house prices down 2%
Yahoo: Land Registry says house prices down 2%
as if... anything connected to this government is total lies...
Posted by mark @ 03:24 PM (1624 views) Add Comment
15 Comments
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1. bystander said...
'readers' of the Sun now know that property has dropped 10.5% on average to 164500GBP average house price, so why, do the government allow these ridiculous numbers to be printed, all they serve to do is make the British government look out of touch and dishonest...........oh, my mistake.
2. nooneo said...
This lot really are as bent as a nine bob note (That's 45p for our younger viewers)
3. Flanby said...
The land registry is an ex post measure and is very lagged as it is based on sold prices. Also it is affected by biases - for example new build 'purchase prices' are what is recorded on registry but we all know that the builders offer incentives to sell the properties (car anyone?) - the builders have not really changed their 'prices' in the current slide they have just upped the incentives.
4. Eternal Sceptic said...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/69a12db2-4f7d-11dd-b050-000077b07658.html.
An interesting link that tries to explain discrepancies in the data
5. The Empty Vessel said...
If you actually bothered to find out how the land registry estimates prices you'd find out they lagged the Halliwide by about 3 or 4 months. Compare the Land Registry figures with Halliwide from 4 months ago and bingo they match reasonably well
6. mark wadsworth said...
Rule of thumb, HMLR annual change for any month (i.e. July) = Nationwide annual change for two months prior (e.g. May) as I have explained previously.
Does the rule still hold? Yup, Nationwide May figure - down 2.5% y-o-y
Next.
7. peter_2008 said...
mark wadsworth@3 Are you sure it wasn't down 2.5% M-o-M? The YOY was -4.4% on that report. But I do agree there is a time lag, so maybe April's YOY figrue of -1% is closer?
8. drewster said...
I agree with Mark. Halifax and Nationwide figures are logged as soon as the mortgage application is made; whereas Land Registry figures aren't logged until after the sale completes. Given that it takes about eight weeks for a typical housing transaction, that tallies with Mark's 2-month delay.
9. Sc said...
Also Land Registry includes property that doesn't need a mortgage and these are now I suspect a greater %age and also probably higher than average. It also depends on whether they report mean or median. Mean would also get skewed further by foreign cash buyers of expensive property when compared to median.
10. mark wadsworth said...
Peter2008, well spotted, it was 4.4% y-o-y. Maybe one day the HMLR figures will become detached from reality as according to Haliwide?
The October 2007 HMLR average price was £184k against Nationwide August 2007 £183k;
whereas July 2008 HMLR average price was £178k against Nationwide May 2008 average £174k.
11. titaniccaptain said...
"London proved more resilient, managing an annual rise of 1.7%"....................that cant be right..........
12. Sensiblebear said...
@Mark 10., 6. etc
Perhaps the time to completion is stretching as there are more problems in the market? Chains getting stuck etc. That would explain the even greater time lag.
13. Jayk said...
Forgive me for hijacking this thread to ask a question about the Nationwide and Halifax house price indices.
It is often said that the former is an indicator of the market in its key area, i.e. the south, while the latter is the best indicator for its core region, i.e. the north. If that is the case, why does the lender most concentrated in the north show a higher average property value?
14. Bear Gryles said...
yes but arnt they seasonally adjusted?
15. Jayk said...
Bear, was that in response to my question? If so that doesn't make any sense. Both would be adjusted. So why do these indices suggest that the average house in the north costs more than in the south?