Sunday, Aug 24, 2008
Housing market may not recover for a decade.
observer: Savills to cull jobs as house deals slump
The dire state of the British housing market will be underlined this week when Savills, the upmarket estate agency chain, reveals that it is axing scores of jobs as deals dry up and selling prices tumble.
Posted by mken @ 09:13 AM (1523 views) Add Comment
12 Comments
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1. str 2007 said...
Well there we go again, even Savills are re-affirming their previous mention of 25% falls by the end of 2009. Which was my prediction BTW. I wonder how much Savills paid for their info.
But seeing as an Estate Agent is predicting 25% falls I guess I better think about revising my figure upwards.
To be fair we're both talking by end 2009. It would perhaps be unwise to make 2010 predictions as Labour are sure to launch a range of house price saving initiatives at the end of 2009 to give the (false) impression that things are recovering and they've rescued us.
2. japanese uncle said...
In London, Savills will say, homes selling for £900,000-plus are simply not moving as sellers hang on in the hope that they can get a better price in a year's time
------------------------------------
Not knowing it will end up at 700,000 in a year, 500,000 in two years and 350,000 in three years. It shows how hard it is for a common man to get rid of the euphoric effects embedded into this head during those silly days that are finished once and all.
3. Danny said...
Good riddance. Its was always some muppet from Savills you see on the tele, lying through their teeth about how the housing market will not crash. I aint buying til they hit 2001 prices.
4. beartil2010 said...
It annoys me that people that are dumb enough to think that can get their hand on a house that costs £900k in the first place.
5. plato said...
Brilliant !
'Common man' and monetary wealth just don't go together. Never have and never will. Wasn't their money in the first place------- was the Banks' Money. Borrowed over time and the time has run out. The Banks want their money but 'common man' has spent it because he only invests by popularity and where he is led and inevitably wastes money. Savills have doubtless dealt with 'common man' and relied on that extra source of income and that time is now over, so back to business as originally was.
6. mark wadsworth said...
I hate this mantra about "housing market crisis" or "housing market may not recover".
The point about markets is that buyers and sellers find a mutually acceptable price. If prices fall by up to half, then all but the very poorest (for whom there is council housing) will be able to afford to buy. So that's what I'd call a "market success" rather than a "market failure".
STR, the consensus average price fall prediction in our recent online poll was 42%, so you're behind the curve there.
7. japanese uncle said...
plato
The most dangerous type of casino on earth is the one in which 'the banker (coincidentally)' tells you 'Just keep playing as you can borrow as much as you like from the house' Nowadays people are effectively encouraged to risk their fortune in the deadly gambles, by the banks, government and media, in which you need to keep praying 'lead us not into temptation' just to stay independent without being enslaved by them.
8. plato said...
ju
Yes, a casino with no house rules. A world with no commandments and the freedom to become a slave. This is our progress.
9. Chilli said...
Mark Wadsworth - I couldn't agree more!
In fact the quicker house prices fall, the sooner we can get back to an economy where the masses can be employed and contribute to society. The desire of housing owners/stock investors etc, to try to stabilize prices at an artificially high point will stagnate the economy. People need to think more about real value than nominal value. If we were to stabilize at an artificially high point, we still wouldn't have the run-away speculation we have seen in recent years. Without the 'capital increase' rewards any of these 'investments' are bad ones. Its got a lot further to fall.
10. str 2007 said...
Mark
I have put a time onto my 25% fall - the end of 2009.
Surely you're not predicting 42% fall by then. I think your poll was peak to trough.
I said it was difficult to predict into 2010 because of what I believe will be the unusual circumstances of the election which as sure as night followes day will have various measures put in place to try and get some housing market stability.
As I've said previously (and depending on circumstances at that point) if I buy (and get a good deal) when the market has reached -25% then I think I'll be buying at say the equivalent to -30/-35% off peak.
If the fall to -42% was a long drawn out process then for me I'd rather be in my own house, making my own improvements and paying off my own mortgage than renting for another 2-3 years to try and get that last 5-10% off.
That's just me though.
11. Peeps said...
The empty EA offices should be turned into bookies shops, which are a more honest front for gambling.
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