Thursday, Aug 21, 2008
Fun online poll
Pollcode.com: How much will house prices drop from 2007 peak?
This is just a straw poll, which we can run again in a few months time.
Posted by mark wadsworth @ 08:45 AM (973 views) Add Comment
19 Comments
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1. honest valuer said...
looks like the majority so far is 30%. I voted 40% because there was not a 45% option.
2. jack c said...
Good post Mark - my estimate is 50% off peak
3. harold said...
Nice one Mark. I went -60%; perceptions count!
4. handle_it said...
Earnings will drop significantly in my opinion. So the question of how far they fall and how much we earn is more relevant. I wouldn't be surprised at 60-70% in certain areas. 1 bed new-builds 80%.
5. japanese uncle said...
Anyone who set up this survey may be aware of the possibility that the drop could well be extended beyond 60%, but too scared to call up the deveil. Why 60% ceiling? The scale ranging from 30% to 80% should have been provided.
6. titaniccaptain said...
Nice one MW will be good to keep a regular poll going....say every 3 months.................I voted 60% but I would of voted at 80% if the option was there
7. sold out said...
i am going for between 50% and 55%.From the peak to trough in 2010/2011.
Incidently chaiman of Perrsimmon was being interviewed on bbc this morning, he was saying that he believed they had reached the bottom allready,deluded fool.
8. sold 2 rent 1 said...
JU,
Why stop at 80pc limit?
Why not have an "end of money" option?
You need to stare into the abyss before you can see global enlightenment.
9. beartil2010 said...
I voted 40% because I just can't believe it could be more, I want it to be 50% but I would just cry with happiness at being able to afford a nice home! I'm 32 and been working my ar*e off and saving for 9 years, I live in London and earn well and can't afford more than a small flat. Roll on 60% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
10. mark wadsworth said...
JU, I set it up.
Next time round I'll include 70% and 80%. (10% and 20% were in there for a giggle, we've passed 10% and are heading for 20% in the next few months).
11. Kruador said...
Needs to be more than 60% to return the average price to 3.5x median annualized pay, when considering all workers, not just those full-time workers on annual salaries. That average would be £68,500. I don't think many commenters are aware of the distribution of pay in this country. I'm a software engineer, and paid probably average or worse than average for my seven years of experience, but I'm still well within the top 20% of earners in the country. 25% of earners earn less than £11,960 per year.
On this basis, at peak, the multiple was 9.7 times median salary (taking peak to be £189k and median pay to be £19.5k). That's how completely ridiculous it got.
Figures from the Office of National Statistics' Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, table 1.1a, at http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_labour/ASHE_2007/tab1_1a.xls.
12. matt_the_hat said...
Are we talking real or nominal cos I think the government is trying to inflate its way out of the sh%t
13. mark wadsworth said...
Matt, fair point, but house prices are a function of incomes, which are rising at 4% or so nominal so let's not get too technical.
The fact that commodities and imports are racing away (10% per annum?) does not help mask the HPC, in fact it probably makes it even worse.
14. vindicated said...
I have voted at 60%. No good reason other than wishful thinking!
15. plato said...
60% from peak, easily for simplicity. Would be tempted to go 80% but for the obscure use of official stats. In reality accounting for what your currency would buy then as opposed to what it will, loss of potential profit during 'normal' growth,etc. Well over 100%.
16. nubbers said...
Just a suggestion - next time state whether the drop includes inflation or not. This would change my answer by perhaps as much as 15-20% as the trough will be several years after the peek.
17. mark wadsworth said...
Nubbers, point taken, will do, let's do nominal fall for simplicity.
18. still renting said...
Anyway, you're all wrong. That nice man from RICS said the drop would be 16% peak to trough and I'm sure he knows what he's talking about.
I'll go for a 50% real fall over 4 years, which will equate to 30% - 35% nominal.
19. mark wadsworth said...
SR, that's assuming 4% inflation or something - there is a school of thought that says we are heading for DEflation.
So 50% real might be 60% nominal!!!