Thursday, Aug 14, 2008
cebr's latest consumer and housing prospects report
Professional Adviser: Cebr: house price boom in 2010
The impact of the credit crunch has already sown the seeds for a renewed house price boom from 2010, according to the cebr. The economics analysts said there will be a 20pc dip in new home completions this year. And, with completions tipped to remain below government targets for the next five years, this will fuel a medium term supply shortfall and consequent upwards price pressures. The conclusions were reached in the cebr's latest consumer and housing prospects report, which sees average prices falling by 14pc, peak to trough, from end-2007 to mid-2009.
Posted by jack c @ 11:28 AM (1474 views) Add Comment
20 Comments
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1. str 2007 said...
''This has lead to our revised forecasts for 2008 and 2009. ''
So you were wrong with your last forecast - but now confident that the peak to trough will be 14% and the trough will be mid 2009.
You guys must be loaded being able to predict the future so accurately.
And the current worsening of everything doesn't dampen you optimism for making predictions.
2. beartil2010 said...
Don't worry lads - the entire debt derivatives market is going to be fixed by mid 2009, 10 months from now. House prices have stopped falling now in USA, allowing this market to reinflate to its previous levels on now-solid assets.Thus all these global banks can stop worrying about writing down any more losses, and start borrowing more money on the wholesale markets; this will enable new 110% mortgage products to be available to high street consumers by the end of 2009.
Then the whole of the UK buyers market will jump in, having got their old jobs back that they lost just recently (oh by the way everyone's hiring didn't you notice?), and start pumping up the market prices. I mean come on, Nadia the Polish immigrant can't stay with her friends surely? She needs her own house! Detached! And a double garage for her cars! So don't worry about losing the equity in your tiny overpriced hovel guys, it's good and safe.
All this must happen, because the Cebr must be right!
Of course, Japan had massive population pressure and no more land than us, and their property prices rebounded in no time, remember!
Don't you believe me? You're all stupid.
3. bystander said...
weren't these the guys who recently predicted a huge increase in HPI of 25% over the next 5 years, so If that is true, from todays over inflated prices, even with farcicle reductions, the price of an average house will drop by 14% and in the next year and then grow at an astonishing 39% over the next 4 years (average -177,000 14% reduction (152,220) and then 39% HPI = 211,585 average price in 2013). So the supply and demand mantra is back again fuelling another credit binge, what a load of VI b*llsh*t. This would mean that the average wage of everyone countrywide, not the ludicrous necessity in London and the South east, would have to be (3.5x salaray = 60,450/ year). Or to put it another, more realistic way the 'average' buyer (23-25,000/year) would need to arrange a mortgage of 9 times average salary and even with a hefty 25 deposit would need to borrow 6x salary to purchase and average property. Where do these people live???
4. beartil2010 said...
With the fairies!
5. quiet guy said...
The CEBR appear to be relentlessly bullish. I am also very spectical. The only way for their forecast to come true is if the UK miraculously avoids the problems seen in Ireland, Spain, USA, Australia etc
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=449026&in_page_id=57
6. Dstars said...
Nitwits. How can they be unaware that the lard on property prices is decided by the 'supply' of money?
The supply (real availability) of money will be a third to halfway (at best) on a long downtrend that will last well beyond 2010.
The actions of the finance Gods has simply lessened the current impact by pushing the most profound effects into the future. But still our media turn to our very own chinless Cletises to 'predict' a market that is a complete mystery to them. All these people can ever do is predict a 5% a year rise with their idiotic, and painfully simplistic models.
They think they're being clever. They've broken free! They're sticking their winkies in the custard!
Don't these people have any self-respect?
Why don't they get jobs down at Tescos, where they belong? (Maybe they'd learn something abut stagflation while they're there?)
7. jackas said...
"The impact of the credit crunch has already sown the seeds for a renewed house price boom from 2010"
If these guys covered a murder story, they would find some good news by saying:
"The impact of the fatal blow to the victim has already sown the seeds for a renewed period of the victim not being killed in the future"
8. hpwatcher said...
The work of idiots. This article can safely be ignored....
9. Will said...
Vested Interest article.
Average man in UK cannot afford ever higher prices, Rebellion looming I think.
Britain is morally corrupt.
10. Davros said...
The same people were telling us that we'd have a soft landing 6 months ago.
11. mark wadsworth said...
Doh!
12. Ah-so said...
"the credit crunch has already sown the seeds for a renewed house price boom"
Isn't this wonderful denial and weird logic.
How about writing 79 years ago,"The Wall Street Crash of 1929 has already sown the seeds for a renewed equity boom"
13. Pond321 said...
Yeah, but I bet the Express still runs a 'house prices to double' story on the front page tomorrow on the back of this report.......
14. growler said...
They are too dim to think outside of their mortar boards. It is a supply issue, yes, but it's the supply of money
15. k said...
If it were that easy to inflate the housing market then banks would be holding repossesed properties rather than selling them as quickly as they can.
16. Eternal Sceptic said...
Inside the big top we can not only be treated as clowns, but apparently we can watch them as well.
17. nooneo said...
k @ 11.
Exactly k !
They talked the market up and up and up and now these morons think it will be easy to talk up the bottom of the crash!
In the words of the immortal carpenters "It's only just begun!"
18. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
"over the long term prices will generally outstrip growth in incomes."
Oh really funny thing I would have thought in the short to medium term that can always happen - but in the long term if you dont earn the money you cannot buy and support prices being high.
So it doesn't make much sense.
19. Archiejc said...
You are right, it is the supply of money that matters. If anybody wants to get a feel for how property will perform in the next decade, forget articles about house prices and just watch the banks. And the news from banking isn't looking great right now.
20. Archibald Campbell said...
"Who dat who said"......"Archiejc said"