Monday, Jul 28, 2008
You love it!
Express: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/54301/House-prices-to-rise-by-25-
HOUSE prices will soar by nearly a quarter over the next five years, it was predicted yesterday.
A report published by the National Housing Federation shows that demand is growing but the supply of new housing has fallen dramatically.
As a result, the impact of the credit crunch – with lenders reducing the supply of mortgages – will be out-stripped by the increasing demand for homes.
The average house price is set to reach £275,000 by 2013.
Posted by little professor @ 01:00 AM (3024 views) Add Comment
59 Comments
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1. little professor said...
Argh, wrong headline. Should read as in the pic - "House Prices To Rise By 25%"
2. Ccamper said...
It beggars belief how ignorant these people are!
Demand can only happen if people can raise the MONEY to buy at these prices!
There is only a shortage of something when people have the will and the means to buy but cannot due to lack of supply.
3. Stevo said...
Well there thousands of houses on the market I think they should start demolishing them to,get rid of the glut, as there is an over supply.
4. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
5. taffee said...
express not wanting a headline grabber then
what a pile of c**p
6. yoyo1 said...
And tomorrows headline "House Prices To Sink 35% by 2013"
7. symo said...
So the crash is on. The express have no facts to report to back this up. The traditional supply and demand arguement has been trotted out in a desperate bid to sell of the Editors buy to let portfolio. How's the Diana investigation going, and who kidnapped Maddie?
8. Orwell said...
I wonder if any other papers have the boldness to publish this nonsense?
Poor old Express. It was once at least considered to have some claim to respectable journalism...
9. Peeps said...
Myleene Klaas looks nice though. Nice assets and she has never tried to flog anyone a lifetime of debt.
10. trough2010 said...
Radio 4 'Today' ran this headline this morning - sure a few homeowners felt better getting out of bed...
11. Dave said...
At last a newspaper that is talking some sense!!
You lot have been shafted!!
12. hpwatcher said...
Well, the express have been quiet about this for a while, so it's only right that they trot it out now.
I think lots of people will buy this newspaper because it's what they want to hear. But it's very, very irresponsible in the current climate.
It will mean that vendors will become even more entrenched in their daft asking prices...for a while at least.
13. Dave said...
WHY ARE MY COMMENTS NEVER ADDED TO THE ARTICLES??????
14. Iain Greig said...
i am sure house prices will go up 25%. But first the bust cycle of the present boom has to play out. This may well take a decade.
15. housebear said...
BBC news 24 are about to give this rubbish a platform in the next half hour or so.
VI or what?
16. Markus said...
The bubble was created and fed by infinite money supply. Now the money supply is very very finite, as it always should have been. Demand and supply are meaningless until the value of existing houses matches the money that is available. That's a long way from here. I have no doubt there will be no shortage in people who will then go and build another bubble. However, it remains to be seen where the money will come from this time.
17. Charlie Brooker said...
It brings to mind the kind of insanely optimistic shit Hitler must have spouted just as the Red Army shelled his bunker in 1945.
Hitler took his life shortly after. Lets hope the Express do the same soon and the whole stinking f*cking property reich comes crashing down.
18. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
19. Ah-so said...
This is nearly as absurd as suggesting that Myleene Klaas is about to replace Carol Vorderman. Although a daily dose of Myleene would do Britain's students and pensioners a lot of good.
20. renting2 said...
Doesn't matter how few houses there are, if there's no money available to buy them then they won't sell.
21. Freefall said...
Obvious isn't it - people can't afford todays prices, so in 5 years with no wage inflation they'll be able to afford todays prices plus another 25% on top. Where do they find these geniuses?
22. paranoia blue said...
Must be free "rose-tinted" sun glasses that they are offering
23. Stevie Dee said...
So the Express are indicating Hyper-Inflation, as the value of Sterling of falls 20-35%.
24. Dave said...
A brilliant article by the Express. Finally, a newspaper is showing some common sense!!
25. paul said...
Now these media sources are just embarrassing themselves. This was going to happen sooner or later, as they get so used to lying about house prices that it becomes second nature.
The inconvenient truth is that the statistics don't bear out their arguments. From the BBC's own site, you might notice that they didn't publish this picture at the bottom of the same article:
26. matt_the_hat said...
You don't talk your way into an inflation, and you can't talk your way out of a housing market crash, good night.
27. uncle tom said...
Who was it who described the Express as 'reliably deluded' ?
28. mrmickey said...
TV & the media are turning the population in to unthinking morons, turn the tv off and use newspapers to line the kitty litter tray.
29. Will said...
If there were such a shortage of homes, why have so many first time buyers not got on the ladder?
Article assumes population will remain the same, however Eastern Europeans going home
and many UK citizens are leaving the country in droves to settle elsewhere for retirement.
Birth rate has fallen significantly in the past 20 years. Elderly will end up in care homes.
I suggest the house builders should really be pulling down their empty homes as they will
lie empty for years.
30. inbreda said...
MickeyMouse is on TV
and the kids stare at the screen
but the pictures are all black and white
and the words don't mean a thing
cos mummies got no money
and daddy is in jail
he couldn't afford the license
she can't afford the bail
31. handle_it said...
My alarm clock went off this morning just before 7am. I heard this story reported on Radio 3 news. I was a half asleep so didn’t catch the entire item. I then went and checked BBC ceefax and ITV teletext but the story didn’t appear. Given that Radio 3’s news is rather brief it strikes me as odd that a story with such a lack of credibility would feature so strongly.
32. inbreda said...
Good news for homeowners? How is that good news for homeowners? Doesn't help them pay the mortgage does it.
33. Slim said...
The article covers itself by saying that prices will increase "as soon as the economic outlook improves".
And makes the assumption that the economy will recover in 2009/10
It doesn't explain how it deduced that the economy is going to recover? It's just taken as a fact.
I think people are being lulled into the recovery in 2009/10 thing on the basis of no reliable evidence for such a recovery.
To make furthr assumptions is just daft. They might also say that the price of caviar will also rise.
34. drewster said...
C'mon people, let's dig behind the headline. The article is based on this report from the National Housing Federation. It was commissioned by Oxford Economics who are notorious for coming up with figures to suit their clients - for example in 2006 the aviation industry paid them to write a report supporting a third runway at Heathrow. The National Housing Federation represent local housing associations (i.e. mostly former council houses). Warnings of ever-higher house prices are good for them, as you can see from the report's conclusions:
- "Ministers need to support housing associations in developing mortgage rescue schemes that prevent households from losing their homes."
- "They should also support housing associations in buying up unsaleable private developer homes of a sufficient standard."
Translation:
- "Give us money"
- "Give us more money"
35. nooneo said...
Well chaps we finally know that we are in a full blown House Price Crash when tripe like this is thown about.
Hilarious. It's just a shame that the Diana inquest/obsession has finished as I suspect that the Express has a new theme to run on 90% nof it's front pages. I have never understood what sort of deluded fool wants to hear the same old poop every day/week.
DOh! apart the tens of thousands going to the wall in the HPC I suppose!
36. Luckyjim said...
"you can't talk your way out of a housing market crash"
I dunno. Headlines like this have certainly delayed the crash for a couple of years. If you believe house prices are going to rise you will give up other things to pay the mortgage - savings, pension contributions etc. Only paying the interest isn't so bad if the debt is going to be dwarfed by the value of the asset. this is why the house price to earnings rule isn't really a rule at all - if attitudes change the rule is meaningless.
Sentiment plays a big part.
At the very least sellers who don't need to sell will be encouraged to keep their asking prices high for a little longer.
37. japanese uncle said...
Nexy year Express will probably be sold for 15p a copy, the right price for this cheaply blunt propaganda organs.
Mail is doing the same job in a much more exquisite way.
38. wiltshire said...
What I find interesting is it seems a majority of people simply don't believe these reports and it was reported a few weeks ago that more people want a return to realistic house prices than don't. So why do the Express and the BBC set themselves up to look like fools by reporting as if this 25% is a done deal? It's a shame they don't understand how ridiculous they look. (If anyone is interested Radio Five have just announced (at 10.05am) that they'll be discussing this report this morning).
39. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
ROTFL.
If ever I could have been convinced that this and the Sun weren't the government's direct input channel to the public mind, it's all over now.
40. jack c said...
HPC regulars will appreciate that this is part of the Express "house prices up/house prices down routine" - They run the Grand Old Duke of York house price index - when they are up they are up and when they are down they are down and when they are only half way up they are neither up nor down.
They key to house prices is availablity of credit and affordability - both of these factors currently limit any prospect of short/medium term house price rises - the National Housing Federation must be making a genuine effort to join Mr Assetz & Co at the comedy club.
41. Lloyd said...
They can fool some of the people some of the time, but they can't fool all the people all the time. Well perhaphs they can, as a contry we voted BLIAR, and laBOUR in 3 times. Yeah collectively we really are pretty STUPID!!
42. last_days_of_disco said...
Its the silly season guys: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silly_season
43. Sponge said...
is it me, or does the Housing Federation report actually "predict":
+5.2 per cent in 2011
+9.2 per cent in 2012
+9.3 per cent in 2013
- 2.1 per cent in 2009
+1.3 per cent in 2010
which is 22.9%, not quite 25%.
it also does not include the rest of 2008, which most would expect a fall of another 5-10%
so even if you believe this report, getting a 13-18% return on your house over 5 years is pretty poor compared to a very poor performing (4%apr) but very safe savings account that will *guarantee* >20% over the same period.
Despite the general feel of this forum pouring scorn on the report as being, rather optimistic, if any conclusions can be made from it, they are still dire. I read it as saying, don't consider buying a house for at least 3 years if you can help it, and then you might be ok. Hardly a endorsement of a bouyant housing market.
44. Imageaudio said...
Great!!! That means the average wage will be £78,000 to make the average house price of £274,000 affordable (3.5 X wage)! I'm going to see my boss today to see if i can get a 150% pay rise, hope he's read the express today!
45. Whostolemyendowment said...
After a 10% fall this year, and a further 10% next.....things may level off to there true sustainable values by 2013.....not a rise of 25%, but a fall and level off to MINUS 25% of last years peak.....or I'll eat Krustie's hat (or any other garment she may offer).
46. crash bandicoot said...
inbreda, do I get a gold star for knowing that that is the Subhumans? How about
And it all went quiet in the city
and the wind blew down the road
someone cried out subvert
and the people all went cold
Oh what youthful angst!
47. rumble said...
Will such credit chaos be permitted again, considering the resultant turmoil? I'm not sure house prices will return to recent salary multiples. Their days as a short term investment are gone.
48. plato said...
Of course : It's so obvious.What a strange world we live in !
Btw is Dave the CE of the NHF ?
49. new user 2007 said...
July 2006
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2006/jul/17/housingmarket.houseprices
The average house price in England will rise by more than 50% to top £300,000 within six years [2012], according to econometric forecasts by the National Housing Federation.
September 2007!! (I think)
http://www.housing.org.uk/Uploads/File/HomeTruths/HOME%20TRUTHS%20SOUTH%20EAST%20-%20FINAL.pdf
This report says in England the average price will be £302,000 by 2012.
July 2008 (current story)
The average value of a home is set to reach £275,000 by 2013, a study says.
= making it up as they go along
They are meant to be a housing charity. Their motivation is probably to try and frighten the government into doing something i.e. building housing. BUT they have a misguided belief that the government actually wants there to be affordable housing (and I do not define this as the same thing as free housing for the poor)…affordable housing is completely the opposite of what is clearly the government's greater fear of house prices falling.
The forecast needs to be ridiculed in as many places as possible, as it unjustifiably supports house price expectations.
50. techieman said...
Re Dave - cmon Dave register (as i told you already) and you can put your comments in real time. Mind you once you do lets see what your Bullish argument relies on - hey maybe if you are convincing enough some of us might actually take some notice. Your qualys might help - about time we had a decent bull on here to discuss things with. Please dont disappoint though.
51. new user 2007 said...
Dave...
Last September we were told prices could never fall because of the shortage. Is there a plague killing of tens off thousands of people? Is that why prices are actually falling and builders have stopped building as there is no EFFECTIVE demand.
At the same time it was never credit driven, but the solution to helping the market is to "improve" access back to the excess credit seen over the last 10 years.
Does anyone else see the inconsistencies in the arguments of anyone who wants to either ignore or does not understand the credit cycle:)?
p.s. and please feel free to check Japan's property market from 1988 to now. Check their lack of land, rising population etc etc etc.
52. techieman said...
new user 2007 - mate - give him a chance i want to see what he says - dont head him off at the pass. Wheres the fun in that?
53. jack c said...
@techieman - do you want to provide the ammo and I'll shoot the bull or the other way round this time?
I notice our mate greenbay is very noticably absent from this site lately
54. techieman said...
Hi Jack - (good holiday?) i have to pop out soon. But we did suggest that he register last time because a few posts ago he complained that his posts werent being posted. I am not interested in the ya boo sucks method of bullology just i am interested in some reasoned arguments that can be debated - not just shot down. My feeling though is that this will be a very poor bull based on comments to date so i am readying myself for:
1. Disapointment
2. Cut and paste jobs from enlightened sights such as BTLRs R Us.
3. No response at all.
Come on Dave my chins in front of you - take a shot - right cross , uppercut, left hook. Up to you . No kicking below the belt though!!
55. jack c said...
@techieman - holiday was excellent thanks, interestingly since I got back just over a week ago the number of people I have spoken to who have either lost their job or are in severe danger of doing so is quite alarming (even by my bearish stance on the economy) so as you say it will be interesting to hear some reasoned arguments that can be debated with the bulls.
56. new user 2007 said...
Techie...I suspect that he will come back, at best, with some inconsistent comment on par with the ones Mr ASSetz makes. But I will wait to see what pearls of wisdom he has:)
57. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
365k for the average property in my area in 5 years?
That would be about x15 average salary. What a complete load of bulls**t.
The have been times when people listened and acted on property propaganda.
Those times are drawing to a close. Because property over the last 5 + years has been one big pyramid scheme. Driven by articles such as this.
Its the last bit of ammunition being used up in the war or words.
58. the haunted said...
I have to agree with Dave on this one, Myleene would be a good replacement for Carol.
59. sid public said...
I love the way Dave was up at 7.30 reading this website.... must be bricking it over a BTL investment I reckon!!!
ha!