Thursday, Jul 24, 2008
"Worst fall for x years" - and "x" keeps growing
The Times: Retail sales dive 3.9% in worst fall for 22 years
The economics of volatility on the high street. If you were in retail (or any sector), would you think of moving house?
Posted by growler @ 12:56 PM (503 views) Add Comment
8 Comments
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1. nooneo said...
The trouble with retail sales figures is that I never know whether they include online sales. Online sales apparently are at 19% of all "retail" sales but I think I'm right in saying they aren't included (please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong). This is obviously a bit of a ridiclulous situation as online sales are set to go up and up.
If you want an iPod you may go to a shop to see it but may go back home and search for a cheaper price online.
Oh well, lies, damn lies and statistics!
2. drewster said...
Nooneo,
Online shopping is only useful for certain products. Clothes and shoes aren't often bought online, simply because most people prefer to try them on and get the right size. So while HMV faces competition from Amazon and BitTorrent, Next and M&S are suffering from people having less disposable income.
3. nooneo said...
drewster @ 2.
That doesn't take away from the fact that somehwere between 17-19% of every pound spent in the retail market is spent online and these figures ignore that. Also it may be reasonable to assume that online sales will go up and high street shop sales may well go down.
I agree that certain products have a more limited appeal online, but lets face it, why can't you buys shoes and clothes online, enormous amounts are now. People will always prefer to buy things in shops and Next and M&S sell a truckload online (next have been selling truckloads through catalogues for years and their online sales are probably massive). You can buy fresh fish online so why not anything else.
Like physically paying your bills by going down to the shop/bank have fundemetally changed, so have online sales fundementally changed peoples attitude to shopping (look at how many people shop at argos, they don't get to touch the product until they have paid!). I just hope that retail sales will someday include online retail sales.
All I'm really saying is that high street sales are not really an accurate indication of retail sales and getting more innacurate as online sales increase. I think everyone is suffering because of the downturn recession but it's hard to judge by how much if the the Office for National Statistics (ONS) uses such archaic data from a market place that is no longer the only place to purchase our goods from. This figure will get more out of date if they don't include online figures and could lead to a false sense of the economic climate as retail sales have traditionally been used as a fair and accurate gauge of public confidence.
4. layers said...
Well I guess if the Times wanted a positive 'spin' and on-line sales aren't included, it would have told us whether the figures are included in the official stats or not. If on the other hand it wants a negative spin then including the online sales would make this figure less worse, and so to conclude I doubt they're included!
5. drewster said...
Nooneo,
Ok point taken. Still, if people are turning to online shopping to hunt down bargains, that in itself is a sign of change.
6. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
A fair point. But then you would need to also take into account inflation.
You would expect turnover to be at least 5% higher than last year anyway just to keep the same amount of business.
Spending full stop has been quite substantially funded by house prices over many years and therefore will be affected - there is no avoiding it.
The number of To Let signs on business premises including shops is visibly on the increase.
4 garages with 6 miles of me are closing. Ford . Mitsubishi and Suzki Main Dealers. All because the last 3 to 6 months has been absolutely terrible with no sign of recovery.
All this and lets face it - we are technically not even in recession yet. Imagine what it will be like when it is.
7. Whostolemyendowment said...
Consumer spending up - we are all feckless sheeple, and must be punished with higher interest rates - bad. Consumer spending down - tight @rsed consumers affecting the economy - bad.
Don't blame the sheeple...blame the crooks at the top.....
8. nooneo said...
it_is_going_with_a_bang @ 6.
It does appear to be going with a bang it_is_going_with_a_bang!