Tuesday, Jul 22, 2008
UK House Price Crash of Summer 2008
The Market Oracle: UK House Price Crash of Summer 2008
"The housing market is in full panic selling mode, as property owners slashing prices are met with silence from potential home buyers."
Posted by housebear @ 02:25 PM (801 views) Add Comment
9 Comments
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1. beartil2010 said...
repost
2. Cynicalsoothsayer said...
"quarterly rate of decent of -6.7% is unsustainable as that would imply a 12 month fall of 26.8%"
Why not? Just because it hasn't happened before? Maybe this is a worse (=better) crash than the previous crashes.
3. nooneo said...
This guy is good. I'm convinced by his factually based arguments and skillful use of a dodgy red line. Nadeem Walayat you are indeed a big fat t1t, there, It just has to be said!
Look at the way he skillfully creates the "ski-slope effect" with his lovely bright red marker pen to insinuate that the property crash will bottom out in late 2008 must be a modern work of art that needs hanging in the Tate.
"that would imply a 12 month fall of 26.8%, far beyond anything that Britain has experienced in recorded house price history. Therefore this implies that the rate of decent will start to moderate by the release of September 2008 house price data in October" - Wow, that's the best argument I've heard for the soft landing since that smelly ol' dead cat finally stopped bouncing. With journalism like this I'm going to advise all young people to get themselves down their nearest polytechnic (sorry dodgy new university) and join a meeja studies course whilst at the same time taking as many hallucinagens as possible and they still won't be able to come up with fantsy stuff like Nadeem!
It's funny, I've waited years for the crash to happen and now good ol' Nadeem Walayat tells us it's all going to stop in september. - The property boom starts in september remember you heard it hear first
4. nooneo said...
Here is another peice of fantasy from the hands of the great poperty sage
http://seekingalpha.com/article/28003-this-is-the-housing-market-the-uk-built - posted February 26, 2007
"The key to the strength of the UK housing market has been the fact that UK house prices have yet to reach the excesses of the early 1990's, in terms of House Price to Earnings to Interest rates ratio."
Wow he's good at maths too. Comparing things that have no relationship to each other, brilliant, why didn't I think of that (doh!).
5. nopensionnohouse said...
As I said on the other post of this article by the man him self "You might as well get a 5 year old with a red crayon to forecast where the prices are going (so long as it is south)"
6. nooneo said...
Didn't know you could post duplicates, thought the system prevented it?
7. Davip said...
Agreed, it's compelling stuff Nadeem -- particularly for those of us priced out of home ownership for the past decade (although no comments ever appear on your heavily-moderated site)
However, I'd like to take you up on one point, quote: "...On a slightly positive side, the quarterly rate of decent of -6.7% is unsustainable as that would imply a 12 month fall of 26.8%, far beyond anything that Britain has experienced in recorded house price history".
History is our guide certainly, but so is the trend of actual events in the graph; what justfication is there for the uptick you have pencilled-in in red on both graphs? This is not supported by the data and seems little more than the same optimistic speculations you cite from the various VIs. Even the flakiest extrapolation of those data do not produce such a projection.
Perhaps I don't properly understand the relations between actual house price movements and inflation-adjusted ones, but ultimately, the less money people have, either as loans or income, the worse it will be for the price of houses. Much as I like the slope of the observed data, your projection appears to be baseless.
Luxury: a real HPC thread free of Mayan calendricals, NWO and Godbug-ery. Wonder how long it will last!
Davip
8. Herbie said...
@nopensionnohouse said...
"You might as well get a 5 year old with a red crayon to forecast where the prices are going (so long as it is south)"
Looking at this bloke's charting skills, that appears to be what he's done.
9. doomwatch said...
I don't agree with the up tick at the end of 08 into 09. The brake cables have been cut.