Monday, Jul 28, 2008
The 25% house price rise NHF report in all its glory....
Firstrung: Despite fears of a housing market crash house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years - NHF
The average house prices in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash - according to a new report published today by the National Housing Federation. The document - researched by independent economists Oxford Economics - forecasts that house prices will fall in 2009, start to recover in 2010, and then rapidly increase from 2011... The paper, entitled Home Truths 2008, says that house prices will increase by: 5.2 per cent in 2011 9.2 per cent in 2012, and 9.3 per cent in 2013 - with the typical price at the end of the period being well above the average in 2007 of £222,600.
Posted by converted lurker @ 10:51 AM (797 views) Add Comment
7 Comments
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1. Papabear said...
I love the fact how the report claims house prices will increase by 5.2 percent in 2011. Five point two percent! Not "around 5 percent" but 5.2. Such precision and three whole years into the future. Why don't they tell us who'll win the FA cup in 2020 while they are at it.
2. growler said...
At least even the most gullible or self-interested reader of this will have worked out that the National Housing Federation might consist of members whose business model relies on people having the confidence to build houses and sell them for profit. Because I think the Governement will not do anythgin about reckless lending, I think this boom scenario is likely to happen again - but not quite in 2013. With massive spending cuts required the like of which are yet to be unearthed - and the aftermath of a period of inflation and unemployment - it will be a few years more before it's back to boom time. When the Government think of sellign Northern Rock is probably the time the investors in such an enterprise think there is money to be earned in property. I can't see that for a few years!
3. cyril said...
If you didn't already know, the NHF is the body which represents the interests of housing associations - the owners of about half of the UK's social housing.
The full titile of the report is "Home Truths: Why the need for social housing is increasing"
need I say more?
4. Rm96696 said...
Yes, house p% prices will start soaring again, banks will start offering 125 pct mortgas again since they're risk free, everyone laid off in the city will be hired back at twice the salary, gordon brown will win the elections and santa claus will cover everyone's dream home with golden fairy dust.
5. Whostolemyendowment said...
The fundamental issue will be that salaries will not increase much above inflation, if at all in real terms during the next 5 years.....so who will be able to afford the mortgages on these 275K houses?
6. drewster said...
Growler - the NHF represents non-profit Housing Associations (i.e. owners & managers of ex-council houses). Their original report draws two self-serving conclusions:
- "Ministers need to support housing associations in developing mortgage rescue schemes that prevent households from losing their homes."
- "They should also support housing associations in buying up unsaleable private developer homes of a sufficient standard."
(my italics)
Translation:
- "Give us money"
- "Give us more money"
7. rumble said...
@growler: "Because I think the Governement will not do anythgin about reckless lending, I think this boom scenario is likely to happen again"
How about the banks -- prepared to risk this fallout again?