Friday, Jul 18, 2008
Sales fall but apparently price rises 4%
The Press and Journal: Property sales fall by 21% as confidence slides
However, there was a GLIMMER of hope for property owners, as the average house price in the Aberdeen Housing Market Area (AHMA) rose 4% to £210,364 compared with the first three months of 2008.
The figure is very close to the average price at the same point last year (£210,536).
Since the second quarter of 2007, the average house price in the AHMA, which takes in commuter towns such as Ellon, Stonehaven and Westhill, has dipped slightly but recovered to virtually the same level.
Posted by debtfree @ 09:04 AM (465 views) Add Comment
9 Comments
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1. Mzzpatzey said...
A crash happened before in Aberdeen and many years for prices to recover (despite the oil..."which makes it different here"). This one is going to be faster, deeper and longer and is much overdue.
2. pelethar said...
I'm actually surprised prices in Aberdeen are only up 4% on a year ago. There has been a massive amount of money sloshing around up there over the past few years.
3. Cashinmattress said...
About the article, was the average price of sold property or asked price?
I agree that Stonehaven property market will remain attractive due to the rail link and strong sense of history and community there, with a diverse population from various walks of life and a thriving town centre which brings tourism and the holiday crowd.
Commuter towns of Ellon and Westhill, outside of the rail system, consist of mainly of cookie cutter bungalows to house oil workers. With too much sprawl, little infrastructure, no town centres and heavy reliance on automotive transport, the attraction to living in the suburbs
Old Abereen City may well hold up for the central and east end buy-to-let market due to the growing numbers of students, but anyone who lets to students knows that this is a risky investment. As for the rest of the city, the current bankrupt state of the council and increasing cost of home heating gas and electricity, combined with the aging population in the West end, will become more and more expensive to maintain. Taxes will have to increase and this will further diminish the market across the board.
Overall, the North Sea industry is still fairly strong, but the big players (BP, Shell, Mobil) are beginning to sell off the reduced fields to smaller multinational service companies with no interest in maintaining the status quo of high wages and pensions. This reduction brings a sub-contracted, lesser paid workforce, with little interest in upholding the current high levels of real estate in the greater area. Together with the collapse of the global credit market, the cost real estate will come down, and the cost of living will increase. Its a sad truth, but Aberdeen is still a one horse town, and has not padded the council coffers to carry the city beyond the North Sea.
4. Mzzpatzey said...
To Pelether
They are not up 4% since last year...they are up 4% (apparently!) since last quarter. They are static year on year from 1Q 2007 - 1Q 2008 (therefore a drop) Bear in mind that statistics also say the crime in the UK is going down! Statistics statistics....mmmmm. Anyone watching the Aberdeen market knows what is happening. C R A S H
5. Mzzpatzey said...
To cash in mattress. It doesn't make it clear in the report if it's sold prices or asking prices - which makes all the difference. I did phone the author of the report last quarter and asked the question and he treated me like an idiot for asking the question saying "of course it's sold prices". It certainly does not say that anywhere in the report. Shoddy and amateur and as with lots of the solicitors dealing with property - arrogant.
6. hpwatcher said...
Balls.
7. Cashinmattress said...
I know quite a few people working in and around the North Sea, and most of them are between the £25-35k annual pay rate, and the onshore fellas are well under that. Not sure how the market can sustain itself now that one has to put up 25% for an 'affordable' interest rate. Add to this that none of the people I associate with are going to be here long term, making it patently obvious they will just not be buying in the city or shire. I guess when you are clutching at straws you hold out hope for the long one. The statistics displayed in the article are suspect, and as always, open to interpretation.
8. who stole my pension? said...
Well even with oil prices at 130dollars Aberdeen City Council is bankrupt! Me thinks council tax will rise further depressing house prices. See http://news.scotsman.com/aberdeen?articleid=4296507
9. Johnnyp said...
Aberdeen shall have a HPC like the rest of the country just not so severe. Oil does make ABZ a slight difference to the case but as we wall know it will not last for ever.With prices starting to drop off this is just the start and Scotland as a whole shall emulate what is happening down south. One of my co-workers out here has speculated on the property market in ABZ for several years now and has two flats in ABZ waiting to be finished before they go on the market ,these will be his last as he dam well knows the game is up,dont agree with what he does anyway and all of the profits should have been taxed 40% ,its people like the speculators that have helped to get prices where they are today ,HOPE THEY GET THEIR FINGERS BURNED BIG TIME!!!!!