Wednesday, Jul 16, 2008
Oil crash has started
Bloomberg: Oil Falls After Report Shows Unexpected Increase in Supplies
Crude oil futures fell more than $5 a barrel in New York after a U.S. Energy Department report showed an unexpected increase in inventories
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 04:19 PM (2036 views) Add Comment
42 Comments
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1. sold 2 rent 1 said...
$147 is getting further away.
Some oil stocks are down 25pc in 2 weeks
Look at the XOI index
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5EXOI
Has the oil crash started?
2. sold 2 rent 1 said...
My oil/oil stocks PUT options are up 100-200pc and the crash has only just started.
3. debtfree said...
has the dollar recovery begun ?
4. Rm96696 said...
Will oil go the same way as houses?
5. Hubbers said...
How is this an "unexpected increase in inventories" the Americans have driven 2 billion less miles this year than the same time last year. This is completely expected. They are hard up and a taking measures to live within their means.
6. sold 2 rent 1 said...
debtfree,
The USD index may appear to be recovering but I like to think that the EUR will start to fall.
So where will the flight from fiat currency go?
Not oil. Not any more.
Maybe, just maybe gold (and silver too)
7. Whostolemyendowment said...
Minor adjustment before a bull trap, and final correction? If you look at the trend in oil price over the past year - it is a typical bubble....it must burst or we are all going to be plunged in to the middle ages?
8. Nic said...
One of the people on this forum has some sort of an Aladdin lamp that keeps on telling us something about the 5th night of this and the markets tanking, currency no longer being of any value, people killing one another in the streets from the world market fallout etc... Why don't we just pull out the good old Aladdin lamp, give it a rub or 2... sniff some good carpet glue and we should have a fairly good answer as to what exactly will happen...
9. James said...
But wait! An 'unexpected increase in supplies'! Wouldn't that suggest that the NWO isn't all powerful? Or that there actually isn't one behind the scenes at all and that's it's all a figment of your overactive imagination?
Or is this a double bluff? In which case, s2r1, it's your duty to go and talk up oil!
10. whiteknight said...
puuullease.. this is a new low in reasoning attachment post action.
Calls the balls.
11. debtfree said...
Crude oil futures fell more than $5 a barrel in New York after a U.S. Energy Department report showed an unexpected increase in inventories.
The important words here are :
Bloomberg
US Energy Department
unexpected
its a pack of lies because the decrease in the dollar's value and the increase in energy prices are two sides of the same coin.
12. beartil2010 said...
Interesting. Could be US tough talk & some better inventory control - I don't see evidence of a great increase in supply that would cause the bubble to crash, perhaps an adjustment?
I don't think that anyone disagrees that oil is overpriced, everyone just disagrees about the level it should go down to. I think the demand is still high and growing?
13. montesquieu said...
Demand will fall when the Chinese economy tanks after the Olympics. With the US down, China down, the Eurozone down it should wipe the smile off a few other faces, not least Russia (who have it coming), to say nothing of the end of the property bubble in the Gulf states.
14. whiteknight said...
see you at 250
15. plato said...
Here's the reason :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/2304156/America-to-hold-first-direct-talks-with-Iran-on-nuclear-programme.html
16. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
The Goldman Sachs effect - ramp it, flog it, short it.
17. beartil2010 said...
ah yes that makes more sense, I'd forgotten about that - everyone's worried about Iran stopping pumping. Like the oil price will matter when nuclear war starts.
Then property prices will really drop.
18. montesquieu said...
Not just stop pumping. They also promised to close the Straits of Hormuz, and with their jets and missiles could well take out a good chunk of other Gulf capacity too. Also Iran has an alliance with Hugo Chavez who at a stroke could take out a fifth of America's oil supply if he wanted. It attacking Iraq was a serious miscalculation, attacking Iran would be suicidal madness.
19. montesquieu said...
BTW let's not forget too that Iran has every right to nukes if it wants them, it never signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and so has no bar in international law. Not that international law matters very much to the US (or indeed the UK) these days, viz the attempt to get Mugabe - admittedly a much worse character than Ahmadinejad - ousted through UN sanctions, an intereference in internal affairs expressly forbidden by the UN charter and quite rightly blocked by China and Russia.
20. Wickedsirjasper said...
Is it just me, or weren't the previous two property price 'corrections' preceeded by significant upsurges in the price of oil? I assumed that was a commonly accepted pattern, but perhaps not. Allowing for inflation etc, oil would have to exceed $80 a barrel now in order to match the 'real' cost it reached in the late 80's! Oh dear. Never mind, I'm sure that the central banks and a free market economy can sort it all out fairly.
21. japanese uncle said...
A speculator that has installed an insider at high place in the Administration (and that quite legally) can obtain the foreknowledge of any military action in the Middle East, thereby can make a stinking billions at a stroke in the derivative markets. This lunacy must be stopped.
Unless there is any military incident there, oil price will drop to USD 30-40.
22. japanese uncle said...
Yet they cannot stop the trend of changeover to alternative source of energy. We have just seen and fully appreciated the real danger of heavy dependence on oil. Thanks to the ultra greedy punks, oil price could go up again in the future, thus abandaning oil as main source of energy will never stop, as the most rational option for the moment.
23. malct said...
quick history lesson :-
The Real Reasons Why Iran is the Next Target:
The Emerging Euro-denominated International Oil Marker
by William Clark
www.globalresearch.ca 27 October 2004
The URL of this article is: http://globalresearch.ca/articles/CLA410A.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Iranians are about to commit an "offense" far greater than Saddam Hussein's conversion to the euro of Iraq’s oil exports in the fall of 2000. Numerous articles have revealed Pentagon planning for operations against Iran as early as 2005. While the publicly stated reasons will be over Iran's nuclear ambitions, there are unspoken macroeconomic drivers explaining the Real Reasons regarding the 2nd stage of petrodollar warfare - Iran's upcoming euro-based oil Bourse.
In 2005-2006, The Tehran government has a developed a plan to begin competing with New York's NYMEX and London's IPE with respect to international oil trades - using a euro-denominated international oil-trading mechanism. This means that without some form of US intervention, the euro is going to establish a firm foothold in the international oil trade. Given U.S. debt levels and the stated neoconservative project for U.S. global domination, Tehran's objective constitutes an obvious encroachment on U.S. dollar supremacy in the international oil market
"Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes...known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few. . . No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare."
- James Madison, Political Observations, 1795
24. malct said...
more recently:-
Iran, oil, dollar, euro
PrintShare
Delicious Digg Facebook reddit Technorati Brad Setser | Mar 27, 2007
Iran indicated that it plans to reduce the dollar share of its portfolio to below 20%.. Something tells me it might not want to shift into pounds – a fairly popular alternative to the dollar – right about now either. And for that matter, if it has euros on deposit in London …
It also indicated that China is now paying for its Iranian oil in euros. Interesting.
That brings up a question that Steve Kyle raised sometime ago over at Angry Bear – one that I have been meaning to address for sometime. Does it matter that oil is priced in dollars?
Steve’s answer is basically no. And I don’t really disagree. I certainly don’t think that the fact that most countries pay for their oil imports in dollars implies that either oil importers or oil exporters should keep their savings in dollars – and that is what really matters. But I want to introduce one small nuance to his argument.
oilcrash! What oil crash?
25. plato said...
j u
Very true ! @ 20
I believe your price prediction will materialise at sometime and conveniently we will be saved from financial disaster --- It's the Joker in the Pack of the waiting game.
26. nooneo said...
malct...
I agree (gulp). I personally think that it could be could for the world if oil is no longer paid for in bucks. The US has to realise that in no longer has a 50% share in the worlds economy (as it did late 1900s/early20th century) and I think this could "help" this ailing giant into the 21st century.
Of course they could invade Iran and try and start WW3 but that would be churlish!
27. japanese uncle said...
plato
I think, given the long-term trend of technological changeover to alternative source of energy, oil price could go down further, may be to 10-20 ultimately in the not so distant future. By then Dubai will have become a bunch of ghost towns.
28. plato said...
JU
Your intuition backed by your knowledge makes it a certainty. Only a question of: When?
malct : Well informed.
29. malct said...
Am I dreaming or is it near 10:30 and a s2r1 post is ending in harmony?
nooneo agreed with me here and I agreed with him totally on another post - spell broken? I hope so.
30. nooneo said...
plato. @ 27
That's the trouble. Productionising this technology and convincing the public to embrace a different way of living will take time/pursausion. This could take a longer time than actual development. Let's face it we aren't replacing all our roofs with solar panels, available technology that would massively reduce our oil/energy dependance. THATS WHAT WE HAVE GOVERNMENTS FOR. We need assistance, developers need to be forced, we all need to take a good look at ourselves and say "what can I do to make the situation better". I know it's corny, simple stuff but it doesnt take from it's basic truth. If we don't stop cr@pping on the place, it will, eventually be full of s****!
As for JU, we all know his views are (almost) infallable.
31. nooneo said...
malct..
This place can be a good place to be. All arguments are welcome. As a good italian friend once told me "what have we, if we have nothing to argue about!"
32. enuii said...
JU, unless the US Dollar make a unimaginable recovery it will NEVER EVER drop to USD 30-40, at this level demand for oil would have to have completely EVAPORATED as it would be in the main UNECONOMIC to pump it from the ground.
33. handle_it said...
Wasn't America supposed to telling big fibs about having almost infinite supplies of the black stuff being safely guarded by some Polar bears ? Errr that's what I read here the other day ? I think the plan was to use up all the nasty Arab jollop then go on massive crusade with a 60litre V24 Cadillac at the front of an army of burger sucking overweight conscripts ? Now it seems the game has changed again ?
34. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Come on oil - fall to below 80.
And then Genepax, give us the deal we have been waiting for.
JU, what do you think about Genepax?
35. handle_it said...
I forgot the obligatory video link to prove this theory. You will notice this Polar Bear is being trained by a CIA operative. Once the Nano microchip has been ingested via the milk the bear will parachuted into an area only know as La-La 1929 and will survive on a high protein diet based on Mcflully & Corndogs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NatmfUQwqo
36. Fingerbob69 said...
The US requires a collapse in the price of oil to mask the fall in the value of the Dollar ("it's oil that's worthless...not the dollar it's priced in you idiot!"). A few more weeks of 'high oil' such as we are witnessing, and confidence in the Dollar as the World's reserve currency will collapse. And that is a mess of doggie do-do so big, it will take decades to sort.
37. last_days_of_disco said...
However messes with the Americans and their oil supplies is mad. Its something they have and will go to war over again and again.
It perfectly reasonable for them to do it too. They need the oil for their army. You are going for their throat when you mess with the oil
supply and they are basically forced to smack you down or disappear quietly into the night.
Saddam was punished and his buddies in Europe didn't step in and save him. I would advise the Iranians to negotiate. There is no
point in loads more innocent people getting the chop just because their leaders decided to be silly.
38. japanese uncle said...
enuii
I am assuming general global deflation for the next few decades. USD10-20 prediction is in such context as well. Mankind has been lazy in developing alternative energy, besides doubless pressure from the oil majors and other VIed parties to suppress invention in this area. But there may well be quite a few technological breakthroughs for the coming decades. Oil will be a thing of the past in my view, and it should be so.
39. japanese uncle said...
sold 2 rent 1
Genepax seems genuine, though at this moment it may not be perfectly free from involving the use of conventional source of energy. The course of future energy development should certainly be this direction. And as I said earlier, this area is and will be led by the Japanese manufacturers almost inevitably, since energy constraint has been the keenest issue for the country for centuries. I am not sure about the patent implication, but the this business could well involve the markets worth trillions of pounds. When you can burn water, who would need that stinking dark messy liquid. Quite like property bubble, sitting on the oil field just waiting for the prices to soar, without any inspiration and perspiration, should not be tolerated by God (if any).
40. gardeniadotnet said...
I have watched "A Crude Awakening - The Oil Crash."
I have watched "Arithmetic, Population & Energy."
I have watched "The Energy Non-Crisis."
I don't know what to believe, and neither, I suspect, do you.
41. A Solovine said...
1. The US is too impoverished to attack Iran and neither will her foreign creditors support military action. Any decision to attack Iran by the US will not be taken rationally and cannot be predicted.
2. The magnitude of the US oil inventories issued in a U.S. Energy Department report is not disinterested and should be treated with skepticism. The significance of the present dip in oil futures cannot be understood until its context is clearer, which will take weeks at least. Long-range predictions about oil prices have entertainment value only.
42. James said...
Genepax is unmitigated guff, as it betrays the laws of thrmodynamics. Even the most basic research should tell you that.
But even IF (and look at the size of that if) they had a water-powered car, wouldn't they launch whilst the oil price was high? So even in your crazy little world, s2r1, saying:
"Come on oil - fall to below 80.
And then Genepax, give us the deal we have been waiting for."
Simply doesn't make sense.