Monday, Jul 28, 2008
"House prices will rise 25%" said Vested Interest
Sky News: House Prices will soar 25% in the next 5 fives
House prices fell for the 10th month in a row during July - but there are claims the property market will bounce back stronger than ever.
(Advertisement)
Homes in England and Wales lost a further 1.2% of their value during the past four weeks, new figures show.
The average cost of a home has now slumped by 4.4% during the past year.
That is the fastest annual rate of decline since property intelligence group Hometrack first launched its index in 2001.
But separate research carried out for the National Housing Federation predicted that the house prices in England will rise by 25% during the coming five years.
DENIAL IS UGLY
Posted by sortofsilver @ 12:55 PM (712 views) Add Comment
7 Comments
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1. dave said...
Insane nonsense. Or, a joke. How anyone can see to the other side of the next recession is completely beyond me. One also wonders where the money is coming from to fuel that increase? Certainly, HBOS investors don't think a tick up in prices is likely anytime soon. Also missing from the "analysis" is inflation, currently running at about 4-odd percent. Does their prediction include inflation at a higher rate than presently, I wonder?
2. dave said...
Just done some back of the fag packet math. Say there's 10million houses in the country, which are all worth the average price of £190k. So, the total housing stock is worth £1.9trn. If they were to go up by 25%, then the banks would have to find £475bn. That's twice as much as the combined losses resulting in the current credit crunch. Give them three years to find it, so that is equivalent to three Northern Rock worth's of defaults in each of those years......I don't think they have thought this through very well.
3. mark said...
in a 100 years my house will be worth a trillion quid..........
4. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
I see. So research paid for by an association of housebuilders says their property will be worth 25% in a few years.
Funny that because they are dropping pricesby around 5 to 10 % on what they are trying to sell at the moment.
Their share price has dropped through the floor and nobody wants to offer them finance anymore.
Paid for polls are worthless toilet paper.
5. Daniel said...
This comes from David Orr, MD of the National Housing Federation. David Orr made a statement JUST LAST YEAR that average house prices would top £300,000 by 2012!!!
He also said "A housing crash was unlikely despite first-time buyers finding it tougher to afford a home."
Sooooo. If you feel like sending them a short message: copy and paste:
http://www.housing.org.uk/default.aspx?tabid=208
6. mark wadsworth said...
Dave, there are 20 million privately owned homes in the UK, redo your sums.
Itisgoing - you got the wrong vested interest! represents Housing Associations, who live off taxpayer subsidies - they can't admit that prices are falling because a sensible gummint would say "What's the problem? In a couple of years houses will be affordable again" so you have to see this in terms of 'Quango tries to persuade gummint it needs more money'
The organisation you were thinking of is The Homebuilders Federation who are torn between saying 'prices will rise' (so OT1H 'give us money to increase supply' but OTOH 'the gummint will then see no reason to bail us out') and saying 'prices will fall' (so please help us with subsidies), so the HBF have to steer a very fine line here.
With a straight quango like housing associations, it's a one way bet what they'll say. I hate them.
7. mark wadsworth said...
Sorry, the links went awry there. Try again.
Dave, there are 20 million privately owned homes in the UK, redo your sums.
Itisgoing - you got the wrong vested interest! The National Housing Federation represents Housing Associations, who live off taxpayer subsidies - they can't admit that prices are falling because a sensible gummint would say "What's the problem? In a couple of years houses will be affordable again" so you have to see this in terms of 'Quango tries to persuade gummint it needs more money'
The organisation you were thinking of is The Homebuilders Federation, who are torn between saying 'prices will rise' (so OT1H 'give us money to increase supply' but OTOH 'the gummint will then see no reason to bail us out') and saying 'prices will fall' (so please help us with subsidies), so the HBF have to steer a very fine line here.
With a straight quango like housing associations, it's a one way bet what they'll say. I hate them.