Wednesday, Jul 23, 2008
Great graphs
Market Oracle: United States Unfolding Financial and Economic Nightmare
The rally you saw last week was little more than a normal, bear-market bounce — predicated on the myth of government omnipotence ... spurred by the blind faith in fiat money ... and triggered by the official attacks on short-sellers
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:52 PM (2212 views) Add Comment
61 Comments
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1. sold 2 rent 1 said...
2. sold 2 rent 1 said...
3. sold 2 rent 1 said...
As I write gold is down to $938, oil is down to $126 and stocks have recovered in a bear market rally.
The oil bubble is bursting and has a long, long way to go down
Gold should find support at $920 before going through $1000
The gold/oil ratio is at 7.5 after hitting a 30 year low of 6.5 recently.
Over the next 6-12 months I think this ratio could easily go to 14 (long run average) and maybe beyond
As I said before the final capitulation of this stocks crash looks set for Sept/Oct.
Gold stocks should do extremely well over the next 6 months
4. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Just watched one of Michael Tsarion's videos.
Did you know the word GOVERNMENT stands for GOVERN(control) and MENTE means MIND.
Government = Control of the mind
5. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
6. drewster said...
Wow those are some amazing graphs! The article is definitely worth a look!
Overall I agree - the current rebound is just a dead-cat bounce, a chance for anyone to unwind their positions before the continued fall. Gold does seem to be one of the best options for protecting against both asset deflation and dollar-printing inflation. I'm happy to listen to alternative viewpoints though.
7. still renting said...
"The word government is derived from a Greek verb meaning “to pilot a ship.” - Encyclopaedia Britannica
Of course, the Encyclopaedia Britannica is just a government tool for controlling my mind.
8. last_days_of_disco said...
I like the pretty graphs in the article. It really is very obvious that the Fed has known about this problem for a while.
It does leave you with an understanding of how the carry trade works and with a realization that we are utterly stuffed. If America looks like this, the UK is worse. That is deeply scary. The politics in the US are becoming increasingly nasty. And anyone who is voted in to solve this mess is going to be handed a poison chalice.
9. rumble said...
"Did you know the word GOVERNMENT stands for GOVERN(control) and MENTE means MIND.
Government = Control of the mind"
You have got to be kidding.
10. beartil2010 said...
i. Scary numbers & scary article
ii. Makes me think the UK numbers on unemployment are similar - I've also thought for a long time the 'economic growth' predictions from the treasury are bunkum (ie. sh*t).
iii. Even stocks in oil & gold are being pushed down by the volume of cash being removed from the market by investors - while oil has been at an all time high.
iv. Who on earth is investing at the moment, why is the FTSE going up?
Seems like there might end up being revolution in US at this rate! They'll be burning their currency in the streets in no time!
11. nopensionnohouse said...
The first graph is completely meaningless!!!
Absolute BS!!! Pardon my French.
12. gardeniadotnet said...
>The first graph is completely meaningless!!!
I understand it.
13. nopensionnohouse said...
> I understand it.
Go on then, indulge me.
14. matt_the_hat said...
Just one thought..
If debt is money and the amount of debt is decreasing (i.e. banks unwinding mortgage positions), therefore decreasing money supply. Will pounds not be worth more. It definatley felt that way when I went on the high street yesterday.
15. sold 2 rent 1 said...
rumble & still renting,
Have we anyone with Greek and Latin knowledge to clarify this
The word government is ultimately derived from the Greek κυβερνᾶν (kybernan), which means “to steer” or “to control” and the latin mente which means “mind”.
16. gardeniadotnet said...
>Go on then, indulge me.
The graph on the right shows the exponential growth of US house prices over a 30 year period.
It is accompanied by a graph, covering a 7 year period, showing the dramatic fall that is now underway.
You take it from there.
17. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
18. Interested said...
While to govern does imply control -ment is a suffix implying action i.e. government = the act of governing
19. nopensionnohouse said...
>You take it from there.
That was meant to be rhetorical!
Here is some sarcasm:
I have made a graph that shows that over a 7 day period the sun rises and falls a corresponding number of times.
I have also made it in brightly coloured crayon. Would you like me to post it so we can all see the bleeding obvious?
20. holding out said...
It seems unlikely that Government would be derived from Latin & greek sources. It is not compulsory to believe everything you see on YouTube.
21. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Latin mente, "mindedly" from mens, "mind"
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/-mente
The Greek word "kybernan", which means "to control" or "to govern" as concerns specifically the navigational function of "steersmanship". To illustrate, at sea the long ships of antiquity often grappled with strong rain, winds and tides, and the man operating the rudder played the crucial role of kybernan.
http://www.mod.gov.ee/?op=body&id=490&prn=1
22. James said...
Government is a corruption, via French, of the Latin 'gubernare', to direct. You can see the original form in words like 'gubernatorial', etc.. and the '-ment' is a French suffix, found in other words like arrondissement (sp?) and so on.
1 google search and some GCSE Latin sorted that out for me. Can't think of any words that combine Latin and Greek derivations either, so your chap's theory is nonsense. Nothing to do with mind control, I'm afraid. Again, not everything on youtube is true.
23. montesquieu said...
Complete tosh on both counts. First the derivation of government:
govern
[Origin: 1250–1300; Middle English < Old French gouverner < Latin gubernāre to steer (a ship) < Greek kybernân to steer]
-ment
a suffix of nouns, often concrete, denoting an action or resulting state (abridgment; refreshment), a product (fragment), or means (ornament).
[Origin: < French < Latin -mentum, suffix forming nouns, usually from verbs]
Second the graph: oldest statistics distorting trick in the book: alter the scale and blow up just the section that makes your point.
Didn't you do statistics at school?
24. James said...
govern
1297, from O.Fr. governer "govern," from L. gubernare "to direct, rule, guide," originally "to steer," from Gk. kybernan "to steer or pilot a ship, direct" (the root of cybernetics). The -k- to -g- sound shift is perhaps via the medium of Etruscan. Governess "female ruler" is 1483, shortening of governouresse "a woman who rules;" in the sense of "a female teacher in a private home" it is attested from 1712. Government is first attested 1553, from O.Fr. governement (replacing M.E. governance); governor (c.1300) is from L. gubernatorem (nom. gubernator) "director, ruler, governor," originally "steersman, pilot." Gubernatorial (1734, chiefly in Amer.Eng.) preserves the L. form.
http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?l=g&p=8
25. Rumble said...
@ npnh... agreed, rubbish. Throw in a few meaningless pink lines and they'll be on a par with the useless red crayon charts posted yesterday.
@ s2r1... "Just watched one of Michael Tsarion's videos" Michael Tsarion?!?! Get real. Do they let you out for walks?
26. gardeniadotnet said...
>Second the graph: oldest statistics distorting trick in the book: alter the scale and blow up just the section that makes your point.
No - graphS.
Clue: the first has % on the y axis, the second graph is in dollars.
27. rumble said...
@ npnh... agreed, rubbish charts. Throw in a few meaningless pink lines and they'll be on a par with the useless red crayon charts posted yesterday.
@s2r1... "Just watched one of Michael Tsarion's videos" Michael Tsarion!??! Get real. Do they let you out for walks? This is embarassing.
28. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Here are the US M3 graphs from nowandfutures.com
Looks to me like we could have money supply collapsing very soon
29. nopensionnohouse said...
Note to self:
Stay away from any posts that contain:
Graphs & charts (especially from marketoracle)
References to NWO
Talk of conspiracies
Any mention of consciousness
Links to youtube and google videos
30. Panda said...
What? Four posts from save to rent? ALL in agreement? What would be worse? Save to rent arguing with himself?
I NEVER do that!
31. george monsoon said...
lol
If nothing else, s2r1 does provide for some provoked arguments on here.
This has livened up my afternoon no end..
32. James said...
Wait, wait, wait!!! s2r1's referred to M3! This would imply he knows the difference between central bank money and commercial bank money! Wow!
This being the case, he *must* now agree with me that banks do not 'create money out of thin air' and that M3 is non-inflationary, need not be exponential, etc. and that fiat currency is not ultimately doomed. If not, then he doesn't actually know the difference and is just cut and pasting charts without really understanding them. And that couldn't be the case, eh?
Rejoice!
33. holding out said...
GM - You must have been having a crap afternoon!
S2R is good for Gold predictions even when they aren't proved right. I know some people object to gold talk but I like it.
34. nopensionnohouse said...
>S2R is good for Gold predictions.....
.... when gold is increasing!!!!
I have sold all mine.
35. holding out said...
In fairness, S2R (not wishing to put words in his blog) had predicted a pull back to possibly $920 on the basis of falling oil prices. Gold has fallen to 935 odd from approx 975. My view would be that it was caused by the loose coupling between oil & gold. S2R would no doubt have a more sinister explanation.
36. george monsoon said...
Guys, I find the banter very entertaining, STR1 is the screaming lord such of the HPC forum..
No offence S2R1, to be fair, a lot of what you have said in the past has been valid and true, but global conciousness will change over millenia, not weeks..
37. nopensionnohouse said...
GM Uh,oh. Now why did you have to go and say that?
38. James said...
holding out - errr, no. In the *one* falsifiable prediction, which we absolutely had to wring out of him, gold was predicted to be at $1,500/oz at the end of June. Which was wrong. Short of that, he's said gold will go up and down, but ultimately up, and backed this with a lot of stuff and nonsense. Without a timescale, such a prediction is untestable and worthless.
39. sold 2 rent 1 said...
holding out,
Gold is now at 925, hopefully it will find some support around 920.
The weak hands have been flushed out (no offence nopensionnohouse)
The gold/oil ratio is 7.3 (up from 6.3 last month). Get ready for take-off
4 years of oil ramping and gold suppression are about to give way over the next 6-12 months
40. renting2 said...
George Monsoon @ 30 - Screaming Lord Sutch was the first to come out with outlandish ideas like allowing all-day drinking .........
41. nopensionnohouse said...
>The weak hands have been flushed out (no offence nopensionnohouse)
None taken. It takes more than that.
I joined the party late but bought in early Dec and I sold mid March!
So I'm doing OK.
Just watching right now although I have a smallish buy order running at 850. You never know.
42. str 2007 said...
S2R1
Won't the collapse of oil price itself increase the Gold/Oil Ratio.
Surely if the ratio at $930 oz against $135 for a barrel of oil = a ratio of about 7 then if oil corrects to half what it is now ie $70 per barrel (only last years price) then that would get your long term ratio of 14 restored.
If oil returned to $35 a barrel (back to 2005 rates) and still 25% above long term world rate of $27 a barrel, wouldn't that cause Gold to halve in value to keep the 14 long term ratio ?
43. sold 2 rent 1 said...
str 2007,
Markets always overshoot.
In the 1920s the gold/oil ratio ranged from 7-20
In the 1930s the gold/oil ratio ranged from 20-140
See info for prices
http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/downloads/US_Economy_1910-1940.pdf
http://www.indiabullion.com/gold.php
We know the situation is at least as bad as the 1930s.
So an oil price of $35 and ratio of 40 would still give a price of 1400 for gold
44. nopensionnohouse said...
I don’t buy the oil / gold ratio deal. It doesn’t resonate with me.
I reckon doing this is more akin to “an educated roll of the dice”.
45. nooneo said...
S2R1. Sometimes historical data is useful and sometimes it is not. "We know the situation is at least as bad as the 1930s." What the oil/gold ratio or what? Do we? OR is it just you? -
The gold/oil ratio may be of some use to speculators but it really hasn't much bearing here. It's historical importance, again, really only concerns speculation. It also has very limited relevence to HPC. I firmly believe comparisons of a metal that has limited industrial/commercial use as opposed to the black stuff that currently powers the world are more off the mark the further we get away from our medieval/fuedal systems of the past.
You see a man cannot live on oil/gold alone, they may need house too. Just a thought.
46. James said...
educated?
47. denzil said...
Is it not a bit misleading to post two graphs side by side, one from 1978 to 2008 in $$ and the other showing percentage falls between between 2001-2008 along with the title "still have a long long way to go"? I can appreciate there is some correlation between the two but it looks like a case of comparing apples with a completely different food stuff.
Is it misleading?
48. icarus said...
I'm sure montesquieu is correct - 'ment' is a common suffix of nouns, nowt to do with 'mind'. Anyway, if government were an instrument for mind control it wouldn't tell you its agenda in such an obvious way. For the same reason, when Rockefeller or George H W use the term 'NWO' they don't mean what some here take it to mean - they'd be too obviously giving the game away.
As for the HP graph 1978-2008 it doesn't even indicate whether it's nominal or inflation-adjusted values, and, given, the guy's criticism of official inflation figures, whether any deflation is based on his own shadow statistics or one of the govt inflation measures. I'm assuming it's nominal and therefore meaningless.
49. iguana said...
Allow me to muddy the already clouded water;
Government............a misspelling of both 'gubble' meaning trouble for the gullible, and menthe, being the creme of the same name that causes confusion when imbibed by the pint.
50. Planning4acrash said...
Icarus. Hitler always stated that, if you want to tell a lie, tell the biggest one possible, because people won't expect it. Check out to discover why they would lie in our faces.
51. Mytimeisnigh said...
STR1, please pardon my financial ignorance, but could you tell me:-
Where do you buy gold from?
Can my bank buy it on my behalf?
If I order it from the internet, how do I know it's the real thing?
Are coins best? Are Krugerands best?
How much is a bar? What sort is best?
Where would you keep gold, hidden at home or in a safe at the bank?
How do dou know what to pay?
How do you sell it?
Thank you so much if you answer.
52. gardeniadotnet said...
Icarus said...As for the HP graph 1978-2008 it doesn't even indicate whether it's nominal or inflation-adjusted values, and, given, the guy's criticism of official inflation figures, whether any deflation is based on his own shadow statistics or one of the govt inflation measures. I'm assuming it's nominal and therefore meaningless.
Look at the NAR website, then you won't have to assume anything.
53. nopensionnohouse said...
>Mytimeisnigh: Where do you buy gold from?....…Thank you so much if you answer.
It is really easy to own gold. You can even visit your stash if you want! Or withdraw it but it costs to get it back into the (trading) system again because they have to inspect it to make sure you haven’t cut it with something cheaper. Then stamp it etc. It stays in a controlled environment till someone withdraws it.
I can’t tell you about Krugerands except that some here love to boast about owning them and flipping coins over of an evening. I reckon they are all made of heavy chocolate.
Very sad. Anyway:
You can hold it in London, Zurich or New York and in pounds, dollars or Swiss francs (with my dealer anyway).
Oh yeah, and you can buy & sell in Troy Oz or Kilograms. Talk about a learning curve!
Makes it more interesting to figure out. Hope you have decent excel skills.
Don’t ask me for advice though I just did OK on a bull run. I got carried away here last year… reading the gold fever posts.
Anyone can do that. Personally I think now is the WRONG time to buy. I sold mid March…. Purely luck BTW. I roll with my gut.
See http://www.bullionvault.com/ for info. Press all the buttons, follow all the leads. Google them and then look for the FAQ.
You can call them and visit before signing up and you get .pdf statements every month for your accountant.
There is also a web interface if you are clever enough to write a trading bot… and they give you some free gold to get you in the mood when you open account.
I’m sure you were after a fight with s2r1 but really it’s really easy after a little reading & research.
OMG did I just hear myself defending s2r1? A mistake surely? I feel dirty. I’m off for a shower.
Bluuuuuugh.
54. Mytimeisnigh said...
Nopensionnohouse, thanx very much for the answer. I'm going to cut and paste it and study it tomorrow. I wasn't after a fight with STR1 at all. I'm a serious saver, because I have always had my suspisions things were going to go tits up and put off buying a house. However, as a public sector worker, buying and selling gold is just not something I come across day to day. After studying this site, I have started to broaden my horizons. I will take your advice and just buy a little gold to start with. Thanks.
55. icarus said...
gardeniadotnet @ 52 - it's up to the writer of an article to clarify such things and to cite his sources properly.
p4ac @ 50 - But it's not a lie if you're correct. Are you saying their telling a big truth in the hope that we won't believe them? If that's the case why did Bush and Rockefeller say 'NWO' just once and that the best part of 20 years ago? I ask you again: if they have the power you say they have (and that may well be the case), what extra do they need that the NWO will give them?
56. gardeniadotnet said...
>it's up to the writer of an article to clarify such things and to cite his sources properly
This is a blog, not a treatise.
57. nopensionnohouse said...
>This is a blog, not a treatise.
Lol Innit? If I had any say here, I’d ask certain bloggers to pipe down a bit. Shhhhhhhh! Less is more. Don’t speak. We don’t care. Really.
>Mytimeisnigh
Good luck! Do your own research and don't do it unless it feels right. Listen to people for sure but more than anything: listen to your gut. You will be surprised what you "know" already!
Don't bet (because this is what you are doing) more than you can afford to loose.
If it doesn’t feel right it probably isn’t. How do you think I chose my HPC name? I might just change my name to “vindicated”.
58. gardeniadotnet said...
>We don’t care. Really
You should. And you will.
59. nopensionnohouse said...
>You should. And you will.
I’m talking about the weird stuff. Not HPC related stuff.
60. icarus said...
gardeniadotnet @ 56 - I'm talking about the article, not the blogs. If you put out a graph you gotta say have things are measured.
61. icarus said...
"how things are measured"