Tuesday, Jul 15, 2008
Do I hear 5000?
FTSE taking a hammering
57 Comments
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1. hpwatcher said...
It's been overvalued for years and years.
2. beartil2010 said...
I'm shorting the ftse already... I reckon it'll hit the 4,000 mark within 6-9mths
3. str 2007 said...
Thank you for posting that mken
I posted yesterday WTF is going on - all the bad news Friday yet all was ok.
Today no news that I've heard yet and all hell breaks loose.
I'll ask the question again - what's with the delay from Friday - which I assume is the news causing this ?
PS Do I hear 5000 - with the news around at present I wonder how far we are away from 4000 or less.
4. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Gold up to 984 too.
The "fifth night" destruction is reaching its final stages.
kitco.com website has been down all morning - overloaded with users I guess.
Hope you guys have your savings in a good place.
5. str 2007 said...
Great minds think alike beartil2010, our posts crossed.
6. sold 2 rent 1 said...
beartil2010,
"I'm shorting the ftse already... I reckon it'll hit the 4,000 mark within 6-9mths"
I think we will see capitulation in weeks, not months.
7. mark said...
i think we are NOT being told something, maybe a big bank is about to collapse??
8. Whostolemyendowment? said...
See banking sector shares = http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/shares/3/498/0/default.stm
9. crash n burn said...
FTSE broke the 38.2% previous rally retracement and strong support, hence the vertical drop - probably instigated by the hedge funds. Lost a little as I hoped for a bounce - may dip my toe in again at the 5,000 level which should provide some more support. Anyhow, the next relief rally is going to be a mean machine and you can be sure I'll be in!
As for gold. We are on the next leg up - lets see a nice clearence of the $1000 / 1030 level and its up up and away! :)
10. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
11. beartil2010 said...
Thanks str - I started shorting at 5,400.
Yesterday, those who did not know too much about economics were okay with the government bailout. All of yesterday those who do know something about economics were shouting various things, like 'it doesn;t matter if the bailout sounds good, if USgov takes on $100 billion debt it'll smash the dollar' or 'think about all the smalle banks that now won't get saved'.
Seems like it took a day for everyone to wake up and smell the coffee. And the inflation figures seem to be going down a storm too.
12. beartil2010 said...
Crash n burn... are we really going to see rallies? I can't believe anyone is going to be bullish at the moment... but then I did see an article saying only yesterday saying the ftse was good value. Too many space cakes for that fund manager!
13. mark said...
sold2rent
funny..lol
but remember last week, freddie and fannie, we are OK... a few weeks earlier BB said it was OK, now look at them, banks are just plain liars... generally rumours have some truth in them.. so maybe citibank is about to go? lol they are rubbish anyway so it wouldnt bother me...lol
14. sold 2 rent 1 said...
mark,
Whatever happens, it is going to be huge (a consciousness change)
This is what Calleman said in 2004 about what could happen in 2008
The difficult Fifth NIGHT (Nov 18, 2007 to Nov 12, 2008)
http://tribes.tribe.net/mayancalendarcode/thread/931c2f26-a8e9-46fe-a5d7-8c6276b3bb95
I thought it would happen on 6 July, but maybe from 6 July - early August we will see the core destruction.
Exciting stuff.
15. crash n burn said...
@ beartil2010
Its a short term play - no I think the FTSE's going DOWN!!! But there will be some value investors poking through the dustbin of sold stocks, looking for a bargain. I am utterly convinced we will see an upswing soon. The FTSE is very over sold at the moment. Would be great to see a "spinning top" from candlestick analysis. That would be a great buy signal. Remember - buy at a time of maximum fear - be a contrarian, it pays off... Look at all of us, we were contrarian to the house market and it will soon pay us ALL dividends for the patience.
16. george monsoon said...
I hope it TANKS big time. I hate stockbrokers with a passion.
17. shipbuilder said...
I think we're all in danger of putting too much faith in the market's ability to make rational judgements at the moment....just an opinion from an onlooker with only a little interest and little knowledge.
Surely one should be looking at where the falls are concentrated - for a major crash, I would imagine that the bad news would have to spread beyond the finance sector to the profits/results of other companies - until that happens, I am guessing that a crash is not on the cards.
18. shipbuilder said...
Are we not being told something? Why is it heading down today, not yesterday?
Who knows? I think that we are placing a bit too much faith in the 'experts' here.
19. beartil2010 said...
Markets are complicated unfortunately/fortunately depending on how you look at it
Sentiment for future developments plays a big part
Inflation figures increase costs
That combines with consumer spending slowdowns to impact the big companies
Inflation costs also mean your discounting rate on companies makes them worth less now = lower p/e ratios = money taken out of companies across the board
Debt concerns are spreading from the banks to all companies that are leveraged, irrespective of sector
Pound and dollar weaknesses influence multinationals of FTSE size
and it goes on...
20. beartil2010 said...
so to summarise, I think all companies are affected, and as the news worsens from the triple whammy of debt/banking issues, housing market and consumer woes, and inflationary pressures, the market will tumble for the next year.
That's just my opinion - but I am betting on it.
21. handle_it said...
I was amazed yesterday (actually I wasn't really) that the BBC suggested the bank bail-outs in the US were in some way stabilising to the world economy. "Don't worry your pretty little heads,everything is okay". I'm not sure about a change of conciousness to be honest but STR does seem to have (along with others without star charts or pixie oil) predicted a chain of events that seem to be accelerating towards a meltdown of this format of FIAT currency ?
22. shipbuilder said...
I came to this website a few years ago becuase I couldn't believe what I was seeing in the property market - the naked greed, the naivity, the lies and lack of logic. I found myself learning, my previously held opinions confirmed. What came as an eye-opener was the sheer cr*p in the press, the utter lack of consistency and the complete lack of accuracy in the opinions of highly paid 'experts'. I was glad to be a contrarian, find other contrarians and feel vindicated in the choices I have subsequently made.
HOWEVER - I think that we may be starting to lose the run of ourselves a bit.
Good news stories were universally derided on the way up with sound logic applied. Unfortunately doom stories on the way down are being accepted and praised without question.
When 'experts' and commentaters exaggerated on the way up, why wouldn't they exaggerate on the way down?
I'm starting to feel like a bit of a contrarian again because i'm just not buying the hype. I'm going to stick my neck out here and say that things won't be as bad as the worst doom stories.
Prices are dropping like a stone so, yes, we will see huge reductions - I reckon 40-50% is possible. A severe recession? Most likely.
But a 1930s depression? No. Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation? No. Mass unemployment? No. An end to our financial system with collapse of major banks? No.
Call me naive - i'm not particularly knowledgable on economic matters, but having said that, I don't believe that anyone else on here are the soothsayers they like to believe, no matter what their qualifications. This was brought home to me the other day when I realised that even the most famous and respected economists in the world can't agree on how the economy actually works.
To me, there's a world out there where no matter what 'markets' do, people will still be driving around, buying stuff, working, growing food and getting on with life. Sometimes it's easy to forget that.
23. Yerhavingalaugh said...
Just listened to Jeremy Leaf/James Naughtie interview. The RICS is an INSTITUTION not an Institute and Mr. Leaf should be in one! lol
24. planning4acrash said...
Yes, Shipbuilder. 1930's will be a walk in the park compared to what we have today. That time it was USA, this time, its global, with financial instruments with a worth many multiple times more than anything close to the total value of the planet. We are DOOMED!!
25. Notaguru said...
The Spanish building company Martinsa-Fedesa (one of the biggest over there) went into administration today after defaulting on debts of 5.2 billion Euros. How long before something similar happens in the UK?
http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/Martinsa-Fadesa/anuncia/mayor/suspension/pagos/historia/Espana/elpepueco/20080714elpepueco_4/Tes
26. beartil2010 said...
That's all true - I think to remove fiat currency you'd have to have a global revolution, which won't happen, and I don't believe the oil bubble will pop, at least not quickly and catastrophically.
However I do think that the global debt issues are still crystallising, which will cause massive impact to the US and UK stock markets; this will devalue the dollar; gold will go up significantly; housing will drop in the UK by 30-40%, 40-45% in real terms with inflation.
Some of the doom and gloom stories do go too far - but I will defend the HPC brigade, yesterday's doom and gloom from rees-mogg was soundly rebuffed as being rubbish, and I think there is some quite healthy and well informed debate on here! Always take everything with a pinch of salt and form your own opinions I believe.
27. pelethar said...
Agree with your assessment shipbuilder. I actually think those who believe the entire economy is going to implode are in a fairly small (if vocal) minority; having said that, they do liven the place up.
28. sold 2 rent 1 said...
ship,
"To me, there's a world out there where no matter what 'markets' do, people will still be driving around, buying stuff, working, growing food and getting on with life. Sometimes it's easy to forget that."
This view assumes we live in a linear changing world.
What if change/evolution is exponential?
We haven't always been driving around.
We haven't always been buying stuff
We haven't always been working.
We haven't always grown food (hunter/gatherer).
Think about what we were doing 100, 1,000, 10,000 and 100,000 years ago
Remember BLT landlords had a linear view of house prices (always go up)
Are you applying this assumption to life/evolution, and making the same mistake.
29. i remember the 90`s said...
Well said Shipbuilder ,you put it just how i read it ,and to add i been visiting here for two years as well.
30. hpwatcher said...
I think we are looking at the beginning of the end of banking in it's current form.
31. shipbuilder said...
p4ac, s2r1 - I think you missed my point to an extent. The 'driving around' etc. were just examples. The point is - life goes on and the trillions of debt and so on are just numbers. Real things happen in the real world - and humans cope with much, much, much worse on a daily basis. There are people producing things and others willing to buy them - in comparison, our debts are not real - theoretically they could be wiped out with a keystroke.
As for the exponential thing - I see what you are saying, but there are physical limits. Perhaps you don't believe them anymore, which is where we differ.
32. inbreda said...
Whhooooooaaaa!!!!!! Back up the truck.....!!
Sold2rent1 - are you expanding the timelines for your predictions from months to several hundred millennia??
In that case I predict there will be another war!
33. Shipbuilder said...
beartil2010, pelethar - It wasn't actually the more obvious doom-mongers I was talking about - even some more reasonable posters appear (to me) to be getting carried away. Who knows, they may be right.
34. paul said...
Indeed inbreda.
35. sold 2 rent 1 said...
shipbuilder,
"As for the exponential thing - I see what you are saying, but there are physical limits. Perhaps you don't believe them anymore, which is where we differ"
You are right; physical limits apply to most exponential systems
EG populations grow exponentially in a J curve and then fall off into an S curve.
But evolution of consciousness is not physical. When the physical limits of one consciousness/reality are reached the consciousness itself moves to the next level and opens up a whole new world of possibilities.
This is how the Singularity can be reached in 2011/2012
36. planning4acrash said...
Shipbuilder: "Real things happen in the real world"
Absolutely. But, the fact is that the financial system actually puts the breaks on. If a 1913 £1 coin had the purchasing power of today's £10 instead of 1p, our country would be so strong and we would be on 20hr weeks and 6month yrs at work. If Henry Ford's hemp car had been produced after it was demo'd just after the turn of the century (many times stronger and lighter than steel, could hit it with a sledgehammer and no scratch or dent), then we would still be driving around in beautiful vintage cars, spending our money on other things instead, for example. Just one of many.
The reality is, not that the current financial system is breaking, but that the power structure that got us thus far, is no breaking down, just in time for us to take things forward, now that we have free information via the internet, i.e. that we are now empowered to make decisions without being dictated too. This will let us spring forth and blossom as a race. Unfortunately we will have growing pains in the meantime. If you have already reached that level of consciousness, you will be bailing out of fiat into real assets and will get through just fine.
37. pelethar said...
Eh? Hemp car? Does it run on water by any chance?
38. d'oh said...
shipbuilder - I'd like to agree with you, but I can't. Banking and loaning money are completely intrinsic to the functioning of this economy. Once the money merry-go-round stops, the whole system grinds to a halt...and that is a depression. It's complete lunacy, but that is how it works. Think about most of the people you know and what they do for a living...how much of that relies on people passing pieces of paper from one to another without any exchange of goods. The service part of our economy is based on confidence that you can pay for some people's services because other people will pay for yours. Without the confidence, there is a Wile E. Coyote moment. I must admit, I am getting very afraid...very, very afraid. I doubt my company will still be here in six months time. I suspect a lot of others will go bust too.
39. debtfree said...
down 3.3% now - somethings up (not the ftse though)
40. debtfree said...
@pelethar
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=839_1214659991
41. sold 2 rent 1 said...
d'oh,
"I am getting very afraid...very, very afraid. I doubt my company will still be here in six months time."
Once you understand Calleman's model there is no need to be afraid.
This destruction process is necessary to reach global enlightenment in 2011/2012
42. debtfree said...
Slightly off topic from the FTSE, but had to post this with reference to the Hemp car.
Sports car made from cashew nuts, potatoes and runs on fermented wheat !!
Boasting tyres made of potatoes, brake pads made of ground cashew shells and a body built from hemp and rapeseed oil, this speedy racer — which can attain a top speed of 150 mph — runs on a special biofuel made entirely from sugar beet and fermented wheat. Besides for the car's steering-wheel, seat and electrics — which are all made from conventional materials — only the car's chassis is made from a non plant-based material: steel. As a result, Eco One is 95% biodegradable.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-470818/British-racing-greens--zero-150mph-potatoes-cashew-shells.html
43. Bullish Bear said...
S2R1
Before you start talking again about the water car, oil crashing etc;
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7243247.stm
Yes, it's a REAL air powered car. (You must have missed this one). My point is that cars already can run without oil - and they will do so more in the future. However, the modern world cannot run without oil - for the home, for the vitamins, for the food, for the cosmetics, for the plastics and for the entire economy. Oil may lower in price - but it will never crash.
44. pelethar said...
And no parking costs - when you get to your destination you simply eat it.
45. Mytimeisnigh said...
Do you think my savings are safe in the HSBC?
46. Whostolemyendowment said...
Or smoke it....
47. nooneo said...
"This destruction process is necessary to reach global enlightenment in 2011/2012" - How are the seventh day adventists nowadays?
So, exactly how many millions of us are going to have to DIE before this enlightenment is going to happen s2R1 - Your postings are scaremongering and quite franjkly becoming dangerous!
So when are you expecting the messiah, and will he have to walk everywhere as economic collapes will be in full flow - Or is Mr Calleman a prophet who advocates worldwide economic collapse without the need for war or famine then? Please enlighten us oh Great Sold 2 Rent 1 for I fear I will be left behind in the new order of things.
48. last_days_of_disco said...
As usual off the rails, riding off into the sunset in our cannabis car.
49. nooneo said...
last_days_of_disco....
absolutlely hilarious. not sure the even the cannabis car can account for some of the posts.
Howabout the magic mushroom motorway or the Lysergic acid diethylamide (lsd) lorry . Now i wonder if we can run a car on MdMA.....
50. sold 2 rent 1 said...
nooneo,
Both Martin Armstrong and Carl Calleman's models show a low in 2008 and another one much larger in 2011.
Just as NR was the warning for the crisis we are now in, so this crisis (2008) might be the warning of the destruction in 2011.
As for who "makes it", I don't know.
I am hoping the destruction in 2011 will be less physical and more mental.
The consciousness changes (fifth nights) are becoming more mental than physical so this would make sense.
My only advice: what you pay attention to, you become conscious of.
Everyone has a choice.
51. nooneo said...
S2R1 - You don't get my viewpoint at all - I simply (and boy am I simple) don't think you can PREDICT this or indeed almost anything but the bleedin obvious.
If I jump from a tall building I predict that i will almost certainly fall to a painful death, now that's obvious. But predicting "the end of money" or a "change in global conciousness" requires me to actually suspend my own intelligence in favour of:
A.Rumour
B Supposition
C.Other peoples convoluted views on such things as economics, the psychology of those easily led and the view that things can change because "external" forces say so, the laws of physhics and other "fundemetals" (you know elements, molecules and atoms - crazy ***t like that).
You see I don't think there is any such thing as "global conciousness" so I can hardly beleive that something I don't think exists can change! I would dearly love to see the world change and move away from it's present course but I see nothing and I do mean NOTHING to change my point of view.
Do a poll S2R1 express your views on how almost all aspects of our modern world will change and mine that we are about to go into reccession or possible worse and I will bet you a whole case of St. ella of the Artios (belguim not british - I personally would rather drink lambs ****) that I win hands down.
I think the closest this world came to actual, global change came in the late 60s (and I'm just old enough to actually remember being there) but all that turned into was eccessive drug taking (peace) loads of people sh@gging each other without commitment (free love) but it did give us a fresh view of how the world could change although to be honest very little actually did.
Please don't bang on about my mind being just influenced by the mejia and my mainstream education (my catholic upbringing taught me all I needed to know about sects/cults and other dangerous mind controlling influences).
Why do you persist in thinking that all this is predictable. It simply isn't. The whole world isn't a conspiracy, although I'm sure that many things are conspired into being or manipulated once events occur. All these people you qujote, they've all got books out, have followings or are just part of their own gradiose delusions that only certain types of people follow.
A very good friend of mine was a member of the Church of Scientology, right in the begining back in the late 70 s. He now admits the whole thing is a cult and that these people are almost paranoid to the extent of being sectioned and he even admits getting people hooked on the stuff, in some strange way it empowered him to be able to "influence" those people that can be manipulated.
Be careful your not being manipulated S2R1, it's a scary world out there.
52. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
48.
Well if all else fails - could we at aleast try the 60's thing again.
Sounded really good to me....
53. swamp said...
STR...
21 /12 / 2012 11:11 is a key date and time
This is the UTC Date and Time of the Solstice and is also the end of the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar used by the Maya civilization among others as it completes its final thirteenth cycle.
Some believe this key date and time is when humanity enters its 'next stage' or 'major cycle' and consciousness moving to a higher level. However having seen some of the barely double digit IQ peeps around my local town I often wonder ;)
I don't think the world will end aka doomsday, but we will certainly see many changes leading to this date.
54. shipbuilder said...
38. d'oh said...
"shipbuilder - I'd like to agree with you, but I can't. Banking and loaning money are completely intrinsic to the functioning of this economy. Once the money merry-go-round stops, the whole system grinds to a halt...and that is a depression. It's complete lunacy, but that is how it works. Think about most of the people you know and what they do for a living...how much of that relies on people passing pieces of paper from one to another without any exchange of goods. The service part of our economy is based on confidence that you can pay for some people's services because other people will pay for yours. Without the confidence, there is a Wile E. Coyote moment. I must admit, I am getting very afraid...very, very afraid. I doubt my company will still be here in six months time. I suspect a lot of others will go bust too."
D'oh - i'm certainly not saying that everything is rosy, but the banking system will survive (maybe not unchanged, though), for the exact reasons that you state. No matter how much we might think it is unfair or wrong, the banking system won't/can't be allowed to collapse because so much depends on it.
But i'm not sure we're even near that yet - let's put things in perspective - banks are simply making losses, the big deal being that no-one knows how much yet, which is crucial in a market/system based on confidence. Companies like GM sustained huge losses for years - a loss doesn't equal collapse. Bad for shareholders, yes, but the collapse of the major banks? I'm not convinced.
Of course i'm no expert - just trying to be rational about the whole thing.
Yes, economic troubles can still be extremely severe and there's no reason to believe that the UK is any different to Argentina or anywhere else - past performance is not an indicator of the future etc. etc.
The reality is, though that because of the comfortable world we live in, we have a tendency to think that with every upset or bad news, the end of the world/collapse of civilization is just around the corner. This climate of fear is good for newspaper sales and government control. Looked at from a dispassionate point of view, the world (and the economy) have been getting more stable for decades.
I'm certainly no fan of the way the world is, but even I must admit the facts when I see them.
To me, the best we can do is switch our focus from money to the more important things in life - life is more enjoyable, less stress, less reliance on money and less answering to those in power. Really the benefits are so obvious I wonder how we ever let ourselves be convinced otherwise.
55. shipbuilder said...
36. planning4acrash said...
"Shipbuilder: "Real things happen in the real world"
Absolutely. But, the fact is that the financial system actually puts the breaks on. If a 1913 £1 coin had the purchasing power of today's £10 instead of 1p, our country would be so strong and we would be on 20hr weeks and 6month yrs at work. If Henry Ford's hemp car had been produced after it was demo'd just after the turn of the century (many times stronger and lighter than steel, could hit it with a sledgehammer and no scratch or dent), then we would still be driving around in beautiful vintage cars, spending our money on other things instead, for example. Just one of many."
I just don't buy the idea that life would have been rosy had we not been ruled by some evil elite. Sadly, we get the governments we deserve - the tragedy of democracy is that people en masse are cruel, greedy, stupid and make bad decisions.
Read Bertrand Russell's 'In praise of Idleness'. The working week would never have been reduced as the extra production capacity would be used to make more, fiat currency or not - that is capitalism. Sadly, it is what we want and what we vote for. Likewise, a car company will not build a car that lasts 100 years.
You are falling into the trap that I fell into years ago. For example, we see the damage that Tesco does to communities, but we still shop there - ultimately we are the ones responsible. I am surprised that you still have the view that you do because personal responsibility is the very centre of Libertarianism.
56. techieman said...
Sorry for posting so late. The Oct 2005 low was 5130. That was pretty obvious support (i think we breached by about 10 points then recovered), I agree with beartil2010 we go lower but i would be surprised if we dont have a short squeeze first per crash n burn . Where to? 5400 first target. then a bear trap pullback then move back up to around 5500, then the fall. Well i need to play around a bit to get more specific targets but thats where i'll be betting. After that then when the 5130 low gets taken out properly its a big deep breath. These markets can be brutal - the volatility indexes are getting pretty high (time value of options are getting more expensive) but i think its very brave to take all out futures positions at the moment unless you are comfortable with the risk (for me options too dear so have initiated [small size] longs with a locked in out the money put for three quarters of the exposure "just in case") . And a break below 5130? Well 4775 (april 2005) looks like the next major support.
Gold? Hit the top of its channel so some profit taking was to be expected. Also the Dollar / Euro today was very nasty. New all time highs followed by a key reversal. And Crude? thats volatility folks!
None of this stuff is for the faint hearted. Am out of £/$ - was short at 2:03 and took no profits around 195 out at 199. So am licking wounds at the moment. Still looking for all time highs in the Euro / GBP but thats looks a bit iffy too (7870 key resistance)
57. handle_it said...
Regards the Mayan Calendar. I'm not able to comment with any real knowledge but my take on it is this. Clearly their understanding of the cosmos was advanced given that telescopes hadn't been invented. I'm not sure how this is explained, but it is of interest to me. I do have an interest in metaphysical subjects including a firm belief that reality is for the most part, an illusion, however,I do believe that our future isn't foretold or inescapable. It is true that certain police forces expect there to be more incidents during a full moon. It isn't necessary for every policeman/woman to believe the statistics but none the less the incidents seem to back up the theory. Given that a small rock can influence some humans by it's gravitational position it's not hard imagine that other planetary positions can in some way effect us. The question is by how much ? Having spoken to astrologist's on this subject the replies can vary from "great influence" to "virtually none at all". To those that believe the influence is small the explanation is that our will is immovable but that certain forces that are only good can help us develop as human beings in this cycle of our existence. Others believe we are more reliant on the solar system. I tend to believe that sociological and genetic conditions will be more of an influence on a human than planetary ones. We are very fragile creatures and seem to seek answers that probably are far beyond our comprehension for the most part.