Monday, Jun 30, 2008
Today's gold fix = $932.75/oz
Kitco: Today's gold fix = $932.75/oz
Given the amount that certain people talk about gold, I thought this might be of interest.
Especially when viewed alongside this:
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2008/04/blog-goldsilver-bull-not-over-12623.php?comment=added
Posted by james @ 11:39 AM (592 views) Add Comment
19 Comments
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1. James said...
s2r1 choosing not to defend his beloved Calleman 'model'. I think his silence speaks volumes.
2. planning4acrash said...
S2R, Techieman, any tips on getting Krugerand and Soveriegns at not too much above spot in retail stores in London? Charlitans in the West End tried to charge me 5% above spot this weekend. Any tips? Because I've decided that its late enough in the day now to stop speculating and to go for hard, mobile currency.
3. debtfree said...
have you tried :
Baird & Co. Ltd.
137 High Street
London E15 2RB
United Kingdom
Tel: 0208 555 5217
4. debtfree said...
by the way, 5% is not bad !!
go for Bars or United Kingdom Britannia's.
ok, thats all for now.
5. drewster said...
p4ac, just out of interest is there any reason you prefer physical gold instead of a storage service like BullionVault?
6. renting2 said...
Full one page spread in D/Express about it being the 'perfect time to invest in the precious metal'.
That means the sheeple will soon form a nice bubble with the stuff. Does this mean it's soon time to get out?
7. James said...
p4ac - you spectacularly miss the point. s2r1 predicted, in the one falsifiable prediction he has *ever* made, that gold would be at $1500/oz now, based on his fraudulent model.
Why on Earth are you asking him for advice?!
8. techieman said...
p4ac - i just trade the stuff ;-) dont own the actual physicals. Personally i think i would probably be out before (and i think its a huge if) they confiscate or anything like that. I have said i am out a fair proportion of this and actually i am only still long so much because of s2R1. I have the luxury of having a lot to begin with and of having sold enough to just leave this as an insurance / punt. Having said that i am very surprised we are heading up, if i were punting naked (i.e. i wasnt long) i would be looking to possibly go short.
9. holding out said...
One of the reason Krugerands are more expensive is that you paying for the minting process. The problem with owning gold yourself is guaranteeing authenticity. Even if you have a certificate of authenticity at the time of purchase because you have taken it away you could have done something to it and therefore to resell it you need to get it authenticated again. It all costs.
10. techieman said...
James this has obviously been sitting on your diary!!! As things stand it was a brash $1,500 an ounce estimate, but to be fiar no-one KNOWS for sure where these markets go, the best we can do is calculate based on probabilities (and then for me Chart patterns - whereas some others will go for Fundamentals). Now i know what you are about to say, if the basis is the mayan calander and lots of "mumbo jumbo" that encourages people to put their life savings into somthing then thats really not good. To my mind yes we are all (well i assume we are) adults here, so if people (which i certainly wouldnt advocate) want to be a large proportion of their savings into an asset class which is notoriously volatile -and has recently been shown to be so - then thats up to them. Turning to mumbo jumbo - as a chartist lots of people (tick tock on here for example) has labelled what i have put down as "b0llocks" and i do understand that.
But i used to trade fundamentally and found that i was continually uncomfortable and losing money. So we all go with what we are comfortable with. Sometimes it comes off and sometimes it doesnt and i need to take it on the chin. If someone though wants to put their store on a calendar rather than as i do some squiggles on a piece of paper then i cant be a hypocryite and say thats wrong. However the problem i have is that when someone is too invincible in their predictions - for example i met some German guys last week - nice enough but really didnt consider that spain had any chance last night. Arrogance? Maybe and being blinkered to other posibilities because they "cant be " has been many a persons downfall over the years. LTCM springs to my mind.
11. str 2007 said...
James
Well done for being consistent.
S2R1's Black Swan hasn't appeared yet.
Due on Sunday I believe.
So I guess gold has until the end of next week to reach $1500 oz.
The more I look into 'safe havens' for savings the more conflicting evidence I seem to find.
A chartist I know predicted last summer 1.22 Euros/GBP which was frankly pretty accurate. He anticipates further falls, possibly down to parity.
I then listened to the Bloomberg link posted earlier today bloomberg which suggests the Euros not so strong due to problems in Spain amongst other things.
All very confusing.
I guess you put your eggs in different baskets and hope you don't hatch any black swans.
12. James said...
Oh, what a lot of guff! s2r1 has made ONE falsifiable prediction. It was WRONG. 100% incorrect. If he wants to make another one, fine, we'll test that too - until then, he really ought to shut up about this Mayan nonsense. The consensus estimate at the time was about $1,000/oz. s2r1's predictions were spectacularly worse than the financial community's, so he doesn't get to act all superior and call other analysts idiots.
13. James said...
str 2007 - please note that s2r1 hasn't even read Taleb's book (comment 76 below). He's just got a picture of one. What a joke.
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2008/06/blog-sp-index-of-wall-street-equities-is-likely-to-fall-by-more-than-points-to-around-by-september-14377.php
14. cornishman said...
"hope you don't hatch any black swans"
- but if you were to have the swan, you would know where it is and what it's doing...
15. waitingfor hpc said...
always have 10% in gold & silver - I use the Perth Mint
IMHO gold will rise as oil drops ..... and as the economic news gets worse (if it does)
16. str 2007 said...
I know there are various measures by which to price gold, but given it's 3 times what it was 5 years ago, doesn't that make it as if not more expensive as houses ?
17. Rentinginthesouth said...
James - I love your obsession with s2r1.... it makes comical reading, although I'm sure you're a little guilty of thinking of him late at night ;)
18. Boz said...
James, you do seem a tad obsessed.
If we want to get into debates on predictions as far as 18 months back s2r1 was wisely telling people on this site to buy gold - even you must admit this was an excellent call. He was also one of the first to highlight the coming credit contaction back April 2007. You really should look a bit further back in the archives.
Personally I see s2r1 as one of the best contributors to this forum and always look forward to his posts.
19. James said...
Boz & Renting - s2r1 is incredibly arrogant, thinking that his model based on the Mayan calendar is better than the accumulated knowledge in the City. Whilst the latter may not be worth much, the former is worth even less, or indeed 'worthless'. All I try and do is get falsifiable predictions and challenge them.
Boz - s2r1 may well have said those things. He also said (and just from memory) that there's a Bilderberg group secretly running the world, that the US has a machine that caused the earthquakes in China, that the 'NWO' (his irritating phrase) is responsible for 9/11, etc., etc., etc.. and of course, on the only falsifiable prediction I've ever seen him make, he was massively wrong. Why not get your analysis from reputable sources, instead - many of which were saying the same things?