Saturday, Jun 14, 2008
Saturday night comedy club
Assetz: Housing starts collapse, as we predicted
Developers mothballing sites is going to mean lower supply - it is has taken until today for the trade to admit it fully and the BBC have really picked up on it today finally.
House prices will rise again through raw supply and demand imbalance with rents rising too extremely strongly in the short term and firmly for many years to come.
It is clear it is existing landlords who will benefit from huge income rises.
Posted by little professor @ 04:13 PM (1606 views) Add Comment
21 Comments
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1. icarus said...
Capital growth AND rising yields. Where do I sign?
2. yorkshireman said...
House prices will rise again ? Presumably wages will rise too and large amounts of money will suddenly be available to lend. Assetz may be living in hope, but they will die in despair.
3. Bimlam said...
did anyone proof read that article? it looks like it was typed in about ten seconds...
4. Bananasplit said...
You have already got 300,000 or maybe 500,000 properties on the market. New builds in my area have already got signs up saying huge discounts available and this is on the dorset/hampshire border. I think that the country is going to have more serious problems than house deflation over the next year or two including empty shelves at the supermarkets, Inflation around the globe combined with credit starvation will lead to worldwide disruption creating serious issues in all economies with some countries like russia having to raise extra revenue by doubling gas etc.More luxurious products will disappear with china and india benefitting from cheaper products. At home mortgage arrears will reach epidemic levels and this will also spill over into rentals where the courts will have a dilemma with thousands of families already homeless with no social housing.doom and gloom.
5. hpwatcher said...
silly sod still refers to the 'supply and demand' myth,
6. Stevie Dee said...
"It is clear it is existing landlords who will benefit from huge income rises."
I really don't think so.. this is the same guy that's been saying everything will be fine.. stick to picking horses mate.. you are a scarey man.. keep him away from the children.
7. David Hurst said...
Stuart Law from Assetz did you say?
I thought Assetz had gone bust and Stuart Law was doing the rounds of the working mens clubs as a comedy act.
8. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
"rents rising extermely strongly" bla bla "huge income rises."
Yeh yeh keep it coming Stuart.
People have to earn the money before they can pay huge increases. In a recession it is unlikely to be possible.
Poor little Stuart just doesn't know which way to turn.
9. Dbc Reed said...
This is only an extreme version of what the developers have been doing all along: keeping up house prices by leaving sites unbuilt-on.The whole idea of the Land Value Tax people is that they should n't be allowed to get away with it.Even a 1% tax on their land bank would cost them and force them to sell or to build in an uncontrolled scramble/dash for the lifeboats. Henry George said all this 130 years ago : a prophet neglected in his own land,if there ever was one.
10. taffee said...
housing starts have fallen of a cliff because no-one wants to buy property...there are also 800,000 empty properties in the uk...and rising
11. montesquieu said...
Can you believe this guy is selling Cape Verde as a big investment opportunity (spain and bulgaria having gone tit*s up for the foreseable). Shame a quick Google reveals the following (from the BBC no less):
'Poor in natural resources, prone to drought and with little arable land, the Cape Verde islands are heavily dependent on food imports, sometimes in the form of aid. [...]'During the 20th century severe droughts caused the deaths of 200,000 people and prompted heavy emigration. [...]From the mid-1990s, droughts cut the islands' grain crop by 80%, and in 2002 the government appealed for international food aid after the harvest failed.
Jeez what a star this guy is.
12. Davros said...
How ridiculous. The lack building is in response to lack of demand. There are already more houses in the pipeline than people to buy them, just look at the share prices of the major builders.
Please, let's see a proper headline like 'Assetz files for bankruptcy'.
13. Bananasplit said...
Yes! Cannot say anymore because my thoughts are never posted!
14. Doogle said...
"Housing starts to collapse, as we predicted" - If they predicted it, surely it would make good sense to provide a link so we can see their prediction? I searched about a bit in their archive and found nothing predicting a crash. I only came across predictions that house's would continue to be a good investment. Liars.
15. mark wadsworth said...
LOL
16. drewster said...
@montesquieu,
It's amazing how much dirt you can uncover with just the simplest research. If only those amateur BTL landlords had done their research the first time round, then we wouldn't be in this mess.
17. crash bandicoot said...
"House prices will rise again through raw supply and demand imbalance"
Why are they falling now then? Is there a brief suspension in demand that will have dissappeared by next year? Does he not realise that the fall in the number of starts has not affected the supply - there are still the same number of unsold new-build available. It's just that nobody wants to buy them.
18. dude said...
Hang on, "Not exactly rocket science but developers mothballing sites is going to mean lower supply" -- it clearly must be rocket science otherwise he would have grasped this (or he's just a bit thick, plain stupid or most likely arrogant). We already have a supply problem, with sellers not prepared to drop their prices and buyers waiting it out. So regardless of whether developers add more sites to the current supply or not we will not see a shift in behaviour, until either buyers give up and pay the asking prices (whey hey, look a flying pig!) or some sellers are forced to sell for whatever reason, thus setting the bar for other sales.
This guy's in denial. Still, you've got to laugh (those big, deep belly laughs, please).
19. symo said...
Wow,
Nothing to do with housing demand and everything to do with cheap credit. Not to worry thoze at assetz but rentz are going downz.
20. confused76 said...
Rents are definitely going down thank to a flash flood of properties that can t sell at ludicrous prices and sellers renting them out instead in the expectation banks will lend again next year
HAHAH HAHAHAHAH wishful thinking!
see another post from the observer today
21. new user 2007 said...
We will ignore the even bigger capital losses they will make i.e. abobe any alleged rental gains, and ignore the fact that there are so many of them that they have very little pricing power...(ignoring E Europeans going home and people losing their jobs), and ignore that interest payments have risen by more than than rental increases have and will. And best of all, lets ignore the fact that the reason that supply has fallen back is that no one is buying...so...
where is the shortage?
without funding prices will fall.
he is saying no one is buying but prices won't fall.
He should change his name to "Mr Best Case Scenario", my middle name is "please leave the facts at the door".
Idiotz.