Monday, Jun 23, 2008
Most Uk Property Buyers Believe The Downturn Will Last 1-2 Years, Findaproperty.com Poll Reveals
FindaProperty.com: MOST UK PROPERTY BUYERS BELIEVE THE DOWNTURN WILL LAST 1-2 YEARS, FINDAPROPERTY.COM POLL REVEALS
A snap poll of consumer confidence in the housing market, conducted by property search portal FindaProperty.com, has determined that most UK buyers believe the current downturn will last around one to two years.
The poll of property buyers from across the UK demonstrated that 33% of buyers felt that the downturn would last around one year, while an almost equal 32% of buyers felt that it would last up to two years. 20% however believed that it could last even longer.
Posted by findaproperty.com @ 09:21 AM (243 views) Add Comment
3 Comments
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1. waitingfor hpc said...
and would these be the same people that though house prices would be 50% dearer in 2 years time only last year??
2. need-a-crash said...
These expectations as mainstream public opinion tie in quite well with the Right Move data. ie. no need to reduce prices that much because the trouble will all be over in 1-2yrs time.
As pointed out @1. waitingfor hpc.... these probably are the same people who thought prices only ever went up!
Obviously we think they're mistaken, there are many more people to experience rising mortgage rates as they come off fixed deals later this year and the impact this will have on consumer spending, combined with rising unemployment, lack of City bonuses at Christmas 08 will mean 2009 will only be the first year of real trouble!
3. drewster said...
Let's do the maths. The peak of bad lending was in 2006 and the first half of 2007. We had the highest income multiples, the highest prices, the lowest LTV ratios, the highest levels of interest-only mortgages, and the most BTLs. Most buyers took out 2-3 year fixed rate mortgages; so those people will be looking for new mortgage deals between 2008-10. By summer 2010, the last pre-crunch buyers will be scrambling around to find a non-existent cheap mortgage. After a few months drawing down savings and buying groceries on the credit card they will default on their mortgages. Repossession will occur a few months later. So the peak of repossessions will be in 2010 and early 2011. Early 2011 would be the best time to hit the auction rooms.
In contrast to the article, I conclude that the downturn should last at least 3-4 years. There is of course the full possibility of a Japanese-style depression lasting 10-15 years. This is without taking into account the current oil shock or any other possible crisis.