Monday, Jun 30, 2008
Hometrack: -1.0% MoM, -3.2% YoY
Guardian: House prices fall for ninth month running
House prices in England and Wales fell for a ninth month running in June, leaving them 3.2 percent lower than a year ago, a survey by property research company Hometrack showed on Monday.
The survey also revealed a rise in the length of time a property spends on the market and a smaller proportion of the asking price being achieved.
Richard Donnell, Hometrack director of research, said, "In the short term it seems inevitable that prices will continue to post modest falls until such time as confidence improves."
Posted by little professor @ 12:37 AM (933 views) Add Comment
11 Comments
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1. Andyh said...
He he, but what he avoided saying was that the RATE of decline is picking up very quickly; last month it was 0.5% this month its doubled. The Nationwide figures out (later today?) should be DIRE.
2. Davros said...
Wouldn't it great if the average person could afford the average house again without having to spend the next 30 years wondering how and if they're going to pay the money back?
3. harold said...
"In the short term it seems inevitable that prices will continue to post modest falls until such time as confidence improves."
-1.0% MoM, modest? Looks to me as if the crash is gathering momentum, which is not at all compatible with the idea that this is "short term".
Richard Donnell is still is denial.
4. Dbc Reed said...
Th reference to the only factor supporting prices is that less property is coming on to the market is of concern.If the market goes into hibernation,this could slow down a house price crash,
5. paul said...
"The only factor supporting prices was a slowing in the amount of property coming onto the market."
That's optimism for you, and it doesn't really make sense. Like saying after a flood that because its not raining as hard that the damage will be limited.
6. mark said...
Davros, easy solution we ask the tax payer to bail us out when we cant pay....lol bit like gordon brown does with banks
7. mark wadsworth said...
DBC makes a fair point, but the buyers' strike is far more relevant and powerful than the sellers' strike.
FTB's are cannon fodder for the rest of the chain, if it is far cheaper renting than buying, then FTBs are at a huge advantage as they can sit this out for longer - there is no immediate financial pressure on them to buy (quite the reverse, actually).
As Andyh says, the June Haliwide figures should be fun!
8. techieman said...
Dbc Reed - We have had the hibernation period. The first thing that happens is that the transactions dry up. The reason for this is that sellers refuse to sell at the prices buyers offer, so there is a stalemate. At some point in time one side has to capitulate because some people have to move. Now transactions will decrease, because some sellers will wait until "things get better", although they will underestimate the time that takes. The price that determines a market are the prices at the margin. That price affects valuations for similar properties because people acted at that price. It doesnt matter that lots of people didnt act - the price level is still established. Therefore yes there will be decreased transactions - as i said in part because of peoples denial but also in part because of buyers in ability to pay. BUT that wont have a major difference on how fast or otherwise a market crashes. Towards the bottom volumes will probably spike as people that have "hung on" cant anymore.
9. denzil said...
One of the things that makes this really significant is that the falls are occuring during the traditional spring bounce. The pace of falls will gain momentum towards the autumn.
10. Bananasplit said...
confidence has nothing to do with banks lending sensibly in the future and valuations reflecting true value.
11. techieman said...
Banana how do you define "true value"? Surely its all about confidence. Confidence to lend and confidence to borrow. Valuations may be high (exactly what we have had prior to these falls) but banks still lent and borrowers still borrowed, because they were confident that (for the banks - well lenders ) they had security and (for the borrowers) prices would continue to rise. Now there is no confidence the lenders dont provide the ability for a borrower to lend which results in a loss of confidence of that borrower. Potential buyers see this and hold back from bidding up the asset.