Friday, Jun 13, 2008
FT/Acadametrics needs to review its methodology
FT: FT index shows third monthly fall in house prices
The FT house price index is showing a modest fall. In trying to explain why it doesn't track the behaviour of other indices, Peter Williams of Acadametrics tries the argument that his index is more "representative". He fails to mention the fact that for the current and recent months, the index in fact relies mainly on a model using other indices, rather than real data; nor that it supposedly represents completions rather than current offers. Even so, it is quite noticeable that changes in behaviour of buyers and sellers are invalidating previous model correlations: vendors now set asking prices way high, expecting to discount, and sellers gazunder even after they have a mortgage offer.
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