Tuesday, Jun 17, 2008
Four-year wait for house price rally
FT: Four-year wait for house price rally
FT seems to believe the market will bottom out next year?
Only 1 year of prices declining, that's not good.
Posted by david20040_0 @ 05:43 PM (1123 views) Add Comment
14 Comments
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1. happyrenter said...
12 more months of Nationwide/Halifax's May figures would mean another 30% of the current 7% fall from last year's peak, then another 6 months of 'slowing falls' of another 7% drop to the end of December 2009 - compounded to around 50% all together. You're right, that's not good for those overleveraged and speculating on everlasting growth.
But, I see nothing wrong with that forecast
as a reasonably optimistic view from those economists who said it would never drop, based on the continuation of those sound fundamentals ie low inflation (oops strike that one), low interest rates (ah, that one too), growing household numbers due to cash rich former students fleeing the nest and more immigration to the vibrant economy (that one as well)....ah, well
...at least the oil price dropped at the end of the 2007 US driving season - as in dropped out of the frying pan....
Welcome back David 90210 - good to hear you're still upbeat
2. harold said...
"Only 1 year of prices declining, that's not good."
Neither is it true. When will people learn to ignor the siren calls of the MSM, such as the FT. They're VIs for God's sake. Get a grip.
3. confused76 said...
every year they will say next year for 4 years... market bottoms in 2012, like last time
4. confused76 said...
Welcome back David202020! we missed you.
You know, since you left, Northern Rock collapsed, Bradford and... almost collapsed, inflation is up, rents are flats or falling, and house prices have been coming down like stones
5. Orwell said...
Still up beat David? Still have the BTL's ?
6. scandinavian pessimist said...
Harold,
If you had actually read the article you would understand that it does not reflect the "opinion of FT". Furthermore, if FT published this in an attempt to talk up the market, they certainly picked the wrong survey! Watch the program, it is still on the ITV web page.
Sure, it could still be considered to be an optimistic view but then that's just human nature - if your job is on the line in the event of an economic down turn you would be pretty desperate to find anything positive on the horizon right now. Denial is the word here, not VI spin.
7. hpwatcher said...
I bet that david20040_0 had to do quite a lot of searching before he managed to find that one. It's just a survey of opinion's and means absolutely nothing. Let's just wait and see what happens next before drawing any conclusions.
The fact is that UK plc is in very, very serious trouble.
8. harold said...
scandinavian pessimist
Denial, VI spin? Either way the 'article' is worthless prattle, full of made-up statistics.
8 out of 10 cats said their owners preferred it.
9. scandinavian pessimist said...
Harold,
What do you mean with made-up statistics?? There is nothing made up here, it's a fairly extensive survey of a bunch of economist's expectations. Nothing more, nothing less. Opinions, that's it, no statistics, no analysis, no forecast. You can disagree with those economists' oppinions but you can't disagree with the way the survey was conducted, nevermind FT for publishing it, period.
10. sold out said...
These so called economic experts where saying 2 or 3 months ago that 2008 would be stagnant.12 months ago they where saying everything was all rosy and house prices where going to increase by 5 to 10%.How can anything they say now be of any worth? In fact i think, as far as predictions are concerned,the amateur economists on this blog are far more accurate and believable.
11. trough2010 said...
i think the bottom will be in 2010, that's quite different from saying that we'll reach 2007 prices again by 2010... but then again i may be a bit of a vested interest given the username I chose 3 years ago :)
12. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
Economists and experts lol.
Would it not be the case that if these people really were expert and here to offer their opinions in a totally inbiast way to help society ... we probably wouldnt be where we are now.
The fact is they are there to earn money from what they say.
They are bought. Will the expert witness please step forward ..... and take his bribe.
13. amjidk said...
"Only one respondent thought house prices would go up this year", lol and he's actually employed by someone as an economist?? which planet is he on!!
14. Rimmer said...
Well a prediction.
I honestly predict if oil reaches $200 a barrel and looks to stay there >>>
5 Million plus out of work.
House prices to half ( at least 1/2 )
Costs of bare essentials to double.
Massive effects on peoples standards of living and way of life