Friday, Jun 13, 2008
Blast from the ... last October
Metro: 'House prices to cost 13 times salary'
Has Prof S Nickell resigned in shame over this blatant misinformation yet? Nope, thought not...
Posted by mark wadsworth @ 09:42 AM (1122 views) Add Comment
24 Comments
- If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
- If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
- Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
- Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
- Please adhere to the Guidelines
1. hpwatcher said...
What an absolute pig to spread rubbish like that.
2. Papabear said...
I think there should be a "hall of shame" page on this site exposing all the nonsense that was said about the housing market by politicians, journalists, et al. that has shown itself to be complete rubbish.
3. renting2 said...
Thanks for reminding us of this. And also helps us to recall all the other people agreeing with that view (including the media). How things have changed in a few short months.
4. japanese uncle said...
Professor Nickellodeon promoting trick for kids
5. taffee said...
I also remember a well known pundit explaining that housing was now a luxury for the rich at the expense of the poor.
Just shows how everyone gets wrapped up in it.......all asset classes historically return to the long term avarage
6. crash bandicoot said...
Is he the housing market specialist from Reading University or is that another expert with little expertise.
7. Countingmymoney said...
Did Roger Bootle resign for wrongly predicting the market for the last 3 years?
Did Merryn I-Haven't-Got-A-Clue-Somerset-Webb resign for wrongly predicting the market for the last 3 years?
No they didn't.
8. taffee said...
it was the strategy expert of a high street bank on bloomberg!
haven't seen him recently
9. another alan said...
I think he's based at Oxford. I'd love to read a response from him about what we have known about houseprices for sometime.
The fact that is comments come after the run on NR, and the start of the credit crunch, make him seem even more spectacularly wrong.
We - I certainly did! - knew he was wrong when he made these claims. Hopefully he realises this now too.
Government advisor on housing!!
10. Mark Wadsworth said...
Crash B, Nickell is a professor at Oxford (where that other economically clueless tw4t David Cameron did PPE) and a former BoE policy maker (not sure if he was on MPC, it wouldn't surprise me).
If we're having a Hall Of Shame, are we going to dispatch John Wrigglesworth to The Moon to look for Elvis? While Krusty eats a hat, and so on.
11. d'oh said...
Well, just goes to show that even Oxford can't attract decent academic economists these days. Pygmies in the ruins...
12. Fwiw said...
Thanks for bringing this to my attention:
Also see this page for a more (but still crap) recent article:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/05/cnecon105.xml
I can't believe someone in his position is so baffled by economics - this reminds me of what Taleb recently said regarding an Economics teacher and Fat-Tony. A coin is tossed 40 times and comes up heads everytime. The economics teacher and Fat-Tony are asked what is the probability that it will come up heads again for the 41st time? Economics teacher says 50%, Fat-Tony says 99% because that coin must be dodgy!
These masters of economics people should get out into the real world and stop causing havoc for hard working families. I am disgusted that even after so much hard evidence that the game is up they still try and hold on to their views.
We should all add some text to his Wiki entry!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Nickell
13. doom&gloom said...
Here's the original source:
http://www.communities.gov.uk/housing/housingsupply/nhpau/archivednews/2007/tentimesearningsrelease/
Looks like the group had noble aims in trying to lobby for increased housebuilding. But they made a classic error of trying to predict future trends without referring to enough past data, eg. only looking at the last 15yrs of house prices instead of the last 150yrs.
The past headline that annoyed me even more was, "50yr mortgages to become the norm", and all that rubbish. I nearly walked into an estate agents when I read that one.
14. tinker said...
Good reminder. I remember seeing this at the time and thinking how ridiculous and insane the notion of 10x + salary for a house was. Yet there was a Govt advisor spouting this utter nonsense. Obviuous question: 'how will people afford such prices?'
Another pig with snout in trough, towing the party line. There are a few of them at it. Completely out of touch, living in lala land. These people really should be put up against the wall for what they have done to this country.
As Jim Royle would say: "Expert, my behind". (Can't say ar5e)
15. uncle tom said...
The horrid truth about the MPC is that they are not the wisest heads to be found, but instead, rather nerdy people who have shown themselves able to become engrossed in the most mind numbingly boring economic theory.
Part of the mantra of economic theory is the notion that if you look at the numbers long and hard enough, the future will unfold before you. The trouble is though, that it doesn't work.
You get a much better insight from talking to real people, doing real jobs in the real world.
Sentiment counts for volumes, yet most of these theorists seem unable to grasp the most elementary notion, that if house prices are falling, people will be reluctant to buy.
Why can't they grasp it? Because they can't put a number on it..
Oh well....
16. renting2 said...
It's actually as ridiculous as exptrapolating the current trend and announcing that all houses will free in 10 years time.
17. confused76 said...
Countingmymoney,
AH HAHHAH HAH AHHA HHAHH AHHAHA HAHAHHA HAHAHHAHAHAH
AH HAHHAH HAH AHHA HHAHH AHHAHA HAHAHHA HAHAHHAHAHAH
AH HAHHAH HAH AHHA HHAHH AHHAHA HAHAHHA HAHAHHAHAHAH
AH HAHHAH HAH AHHA HHAHH AHHAHA HAHAHHA HAHAHHAHAHAH
AH HAHHAH HAH AHHA HHAHH AHHAHA HAHAHHA HAHAHHAHAHAH
Nice try!
18. inbreda said...
Yeah - I spotted that one as well C76. Of course the obvious answer would be to say "because they spoke sense and, as it turns out, they were right - in stark contrast to the chump that obvioulsy doesn't know how to use a calculator"
19. Countingmymoney said...
Inbreda,
Both Bootle and Webb have been incorrectly calling the top of the market for years. I can predict as well as those so called experts...VIs the both of them!!!
20. Mark said...
His quango should be shut down - at least some taxpayers' money would be saved that way.
21. Another Alan said...
Regarding the crash predictions that many people - academics, analysts etc - made and did not come true until now, it is difficult to judge them harshily. The crash has been ripe for sometime, and these people would have been right (i.e. a crash a few years ago) were it not for (1) the utter irresponsibility of lenders (125%mortgages, 6 times salary etc)
(2) fraud
(3) greed (mortgage brokers, btl, property as way of making easy money, financial companies slicing and repackaging mortgages etc)
(4) the media... Allsop Location Location Location etc
These factors put it off for a few years, and have made the crash much worse than it was going to be.
DO NOT BUY FOR AT LEAST 18 MONTHS.
22. another alan said...
Regarding the crash predictions that many people - academics, analysts etc - made and did not come true until now, it is difficult to judge them harshily. The crash has been ripe for sometime, and these people would have been right (i.e. a crash a few years ago) were it not for (1) the utter irresponsibility of lenders (125%mortgages, 6 times salary etc)
(2) fraud
(3) greed (mortgage brokers, btl, property as way of making easy money, financial companies slicing and repackaging mortgages etc)
(4) the media... Allsop Location Location Location etc
These factors put it off for a few years, and have made the crash much worse than it was going to be.
DO NOT BUY FOR AT LEAST 18 MONTHS.
23. C'mon Correction said...
I agree alan@18.
I like the warning at the bottom of your post, I might include that on all my posts from now on! Estate agents should have a public health (financial health) warning smacked all over their windows -
DO NOT BUY A HOUSE FOR AT LEAST 18 MONTHS, IT COULD SERIOUSLY DAMAGE YOUR WALLET.
!!!!!
24. crash bandicoot said...
another alan, they are enabling factors, but it has been driven by greed (as you say) and the fear that if you don't buy now you'll never afford it. Now that fear and the other factors are gone all of the support is removed from the market.
counting my money, how about you give us a three year prediction on the future directon of the market then.