Thursday, May 22, 2008
Why there's a 95% chance of a recession
MoneyWeek: Why there's a 95% chance of a recession
New research reckons there is a 95% chance that Britain will go in to recession. It'll be long, bleak and hard, and the government won't be able to do a thing about it.
Posted by damien @ 01:46 PM (987 views) Add Comment
11 Comments
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1. hpwatcher said...
It's a 100% certainty for me.
2. uncle tom said...
I'm comfortable with 95% - a surefire certainty in theory, but life is full of little surprises, and the way these things are calculated is always a little bit opaque...
If the 5% probability prevails, we will see growth tantalisingly close to zero for a very long, depressing period - better to have the bust and get it out of the way as quickly as possible.
3. Neo-serf said...
For me 5% possibility of recession - 95% possibility of depression.
A protracted one too.
4. Landedgentry said...
Bring it on, let see some suffering :-)
Will be loads of sales on, will find out how "never knowingly undersold" John Lewis actually is.
5. george monsoon said...
Landedgentry - 95% of the country will suffer, myself included. Where do you fit in:? I presume you are loaded and have no worries.
I myself have a family, no mortgage and no debt, but I still have to work to provide a meal and a roof for my dependants. I for one do not want a recession, let alone a depression, although I do accept that it is a near certanty.
6. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
Recession doesn't mean you can't eat. It just means you maybe can't eat out as much in my opinion.
It is the service sector that will suffer the most.
I would certainly be more than willing to have a little less if it means that I can one day buy a property without taking out a life loan that can never be paid back.
7. Slysmiles said...
An interesting article about recession/depression and inflation.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/katz051208.html
Well worth reading.
8. hpwatcher said...
I myself have no family, no mortgage and no debt and want sense in the housing market rather than a recession......but it's a recession that we're going to get!
9. plato said...
I'm going 100% unless there's a big burst in the oil bubble,interest rates go up,and they stop printing excessive amounts of money. What do reckon the chances of that are?
10. Landedgentry said...
@george monsoon
My regrets. I wish you the best of luck.
11. titaniccaptain said...
Well im getting geared up for growing my own food........im not a fan of the good life sitcom either but hey with rising food bills it aint funny whats around the corner