Thursday, May 15, 2008
The Great House Price Crash...ehm ops sorry it's dated 2005 !!
BBC News: The Great House Price Crash
I think house prices will fall from peak to trough by around 20%
Roger Bootle, Capital Economics
03/03/2005 !!!!
Posted by des @ 07:45 PM (819 views) Add Comment
12 Comments
- If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
- If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
- Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
- Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
- Please adhere to the Guidelines
1. denzil said...
The fact that it took over three years longer for the market to crash probably means Bootles estimate of 20% is well off the mark. If I were an Estate Agent I would considering a new career.
2. icarus said...
Didn't he revise this estimate when the market stayed up (smaller falls) and then revise it again (some falls) and again (larger falls) as the market went down?
3. Ferretman said...
Bootle has been predicting a crash for years. Eventually you get it right I suppose. Not a great predictor! I'll call a boom...in 4/5/6 years there'll be one for sure.
4. voiceofreason said...
And now, I feel all is well in the world.
Our work is done. Even the govt (Caroline Flint) is getting the message.
I shall now be devoting more online time to frivolities like http://www.superdickery.com...
Oh yes, and working on our HPC party invites for the 30% fall mark in mid 2009 outside Land Reg HQ.
5. confused76 said...
1 year, 3 years who cares? But "things are different now"! Northern rock, the US house price crash, the "pound in your toilet".
Nice try, Des, but homeowners would wish the crash had happened in 2005... you know, falling from a raised ground floor or from the roof may make the difference on survival rate
6. voiceofreason said...
"pound in your toilet" reminds me of when I was Inter-Railing in Bulgaria in '92 and I needed to use the loo at Sophia station.
You had to purchase toilet paper by the sheet.
I handed over a Bulgarian note and received a sheet of toilet paper barely bigger than the note....
Why bother buying the loo paper I thought.
7. crash bandicoot said...
You only have to look at the graph on the home page to see that it should have been 2005, but the unwarranted rate cut and lax lending pumped prices higer and higher. Prices will fall back to the same level because that is where the real support is. If you are counting on having property as an investment Des you'd best be selling it now while it still has some value. Oops too late. 2008 news is that houses are not selling any more you're in it for the long term now - like it or not.
8. Dbc Reed said...
I really can't figure why this bloke (Bootle) is the papers' Mr Ever Ready Rentaquote: to his basic lack of insight,he brings only leadenness of phrase.
9. letthemfall said...
You have to admire the logic don't you. Someone makes an incorrect prediction at a given time: therefore what they claimed never will happen!
Bootle noted that houses were way overpriced, which they were. Therefore, he reasoned, they would fall. These things are always a matter of likelihood. Bootle would have known that he could not say with absolute certainty when prices would drop. We all thought they would carry on going down in 2005; but for the intervention of the Bank to give the bubble one last puff they would have. The more inflated prices go the greater the chance they will fall. Eventually it happens, as we now see.
10. James said...
9 - No. Like most people on this site, the prediction that Bootle made was wrong. Just that - wrong. If I say that you will die tomorrow, and then you don't, have I just deferred being right?
11. Rental John said...
Nice archive article - but was still looking at the inevitable....nice name 'Mr Manic' struggling to get on the ladder...
I put my house on the market in Feb 2005 - and eventually sold Nov 2005 - after loosing one buyer, and cutting the price.....so that I could get on with my life.....
12. crash bandicoot said...
James, was it right to buy in 2005 or 2006? Bootle said that prices would fall when most others were saying that they always rose in perpetuity. What's your view on Finnouala et al still calling the market as flat to modest rises through 2008 in January- or Stuart Law predicting a 5% rise in prices this year?
I'm no investor I just want a house for my family. I'd rather wait two years to do the right thing than spend twenty years regretting a rash decision.