Wednesday, May 28, 2008
map of missing properities
sydney morning herald: Empty homes now for all to see
Gmap of vacant properities in Australia. I like the community aspect of creating this map and the way it shows up where people might be sitting on investment properties.
Why isn´t there one of these for the UK? a good addition to HPC.
Posted by al @ 12:44 PM (436 views) Add Comment
12 Comments
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1. lvmreader said...
You have to see downtown Sydney to see property armageddon. Unreal.
2. drewster said...
lvmreader, interesting comment. Could you expand on that, tell us what's going on there? Are there empty properties everywhere?
3. angonamo said...
Well spotted al .... really interesting site. I can think of 2 empty properties near me in cambs.
4. lvmreader said...
@Drewster,
Why certainly old chap. I guess "Property Armageddon" isn't a good enough clue. I will make a mental note to spell everything out for you in future like you had the mental capacity of a 6yr old child.
Yes I can elaborate. I have spent some months in Sydney & Brisbane in both 2006 (twice) and 2007 and had a wonder around the business district. Property meltdown several months ago and getting worse. I thought London was bad last summer, but Sydney was worse in terms of "for sale" and "to let".
The Aussie papers are full of stories of property woes and one of their largest pair of banks has recently merged. The multiples of "salary" in Sydney were up to 12 with a median of 8.5 in 2007. We are suffering with multiples of 5 - 6 here in the UK.
5. Phil said...
lvmreader it would seem that you really are the smartest guy in the room however, mere dumb mortals like myself who only lived in Sydney for about 18 years unlike you a tourist. To this I can tell you that your prognosis is completely wrong. a twelve times multiple of salary only applies in the CBD and other popular areas, areas such as Bankstown, Paramatta, Emu plains etc are much cheaper. However a smart guy like you would also realize that in relation to wages per city Canberra or Perth are much more expensive.
6. drewster said...
Thanks for the clarification, lvmreader
7. Micthemike said...
ivmreader the two big banks you said have merged ie westpac and st george have not as yet merged in fact nab and commonwealth bank are another two interested parties, try not to be so clever and get your facts right/
8. lvmreader said...
@Phil,
I guess it is a good thing that I clarified I had walked around downtown. It was where I was looking for office space. So I will soon be a resident in Australia.
9. lvmreader said...
@MicTheMike,
I don't need to TRY to be clever. Unlike you (who is Drewster anyway) who probably can try as hard as he wants and has no chance.
Here is my information source, sent to me by one of the many friends I have in Sydney: http://business.smh.com.au/banks-agree-on-67b-merger/20080513-2diw.html
I guess you write for the SMH and you know better than them. All power to you, but it would be sensible of you to ask me where I got my facts first.
10. lvmreader said...
@Drewster,
If you want a flame war every post, I (and many others) will gladly give you one.
You need to remember that you will reap what you sow. Use as many aliases as you want.
11. lvmreader said...
http://www.rpdata.net.au/news/rp/20071002.html
"Perhaps the most striking stories of 2007 are the evaporation of the Perth house price boom combined with the turnaround in the Sydney and Melbourne markets. While Sydney and Melbourne experienced very sluggish growth during 2004-2006, the Perth market grew at an incredible rate. However, the tables have turned in 2007. In the first seven months to 31 July 2007, Perth property prices rose by only 2% while Melbourne and Sydney prices have increased by 10% and 5.7%, respectively. Interestingly, the Perth correction is largely restricted to house prices, with Perth apartments continuing to show robust growth." Mr Lawless said.
Sydney retains its mantle as Australia's most expensive housing market with a median house price of $561,199. This is followed by Perth ($508,140), Canberra ($475,554), Brisbane ($424,207), Melbourne ($407,544), Darwin ($385,506), and Adelaide ($365,508). It is interesting to see that the typical Brisbane house is substantially more expensive than the median Melbourne house, which is most likely a function of the tighter supply of properties that exists in Brisbane.
12. lvmreader said...
http://tinyurl.com/5b3rac
29 . How overvalued is Australian residential property?
Adam Schwab writes:
Another US house price survey, another decline in value. This time it was the National Association of Realters which revealed a 7.7% drop for the year to March -- the largest fall the association has recorded since it started taking records in 1982. The average median house price in the US is now $US196,000. Leading the way down were Sacramento (29% fall), Las Vegas (20.2%) and Phoenix (15.4%).
The correction seems to be heading across the Atlantic, with David Blanchflower (who is a member of the Bank of England) suggesting last week that UK house prices could fall by 30%. Blanchflower’s view was based on the fact that "the UK average house price of £178,555, according to Nationwide Building Society, is six times mean earnings. That’s way above the long-term average multiple of 3.7. To get there, UK house prices would have to fall 30 per cent, even counting in three years of 5 per cent growth in average earnings."
The logical question arises -- if the US has fallen by upwards of 30% in some regions, and the UK is priming for a big drop -- exactly how overvalued is Australian residential property?
There are two schools of thought. Property bulls will suggest that while prices appear high in historical and relative terms, the number of people moving to Australia exceeds the number of dwellings being constructed -- supply and demand suggests that this will continue to put pressure on house prices. This view is supported by increasing rental yields.
The contrary opinion is that Australia is in the midst of a housing bubble in which prices bear absolutely no reflection of underlying economics. Using the metric suggested by Blanchflower -- the median price of a house in Sydney is $551,000, while the Melbourne median is above $450,000. According to the RBA, average weekly earnings for all employees are $45,729.
Therefore, the average house price in Sydney is 12 times earnings, and in Melbourne it is 9.8 times earnings. Sydney house prices are therefore almost double those of the allegedly overpriced UK in relative terms.
Another metric which is considered to be more telling is the ratio of monthly mortgage payments versus income. In the UK, the current rate is 50%, which is significantly higher than the long-term average of 37%. In Australia, the ratio is above 57%.
It appears that Australian residential property is one giant Ponzi scheme of sorts, with property owners relying on ever-increasing house prices to vindicate their investment.
The US has slumped, the UK is looking extremely wobbly, yet Australia continues to sail through, despite its residential property appearing far more expensive than our Anglo-counterparts.
The key for Australian residential property is employment. Not only is Australia virtually at full employment, but despite consumer confidence being down, few workers expect to lose their jobs. If that changes, our housing market could experience a very substantial correction.
Pretty much on the money I think