Friday, May 23, 2008
Look at oil exports not just production levels
Safe Haven: What the Export Land Model Means for Energy Prices
"To understand the importance of exports when discussing peak oil, ask yourself the question, "What's more important: the fact that global oil production is falling ... or that the oil-exporting nations are cutting off their exports?""
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:54 AM (367 views) Add Comment
8 Comments
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1. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Oil is the next bubble - but not the last?
When the oil bubble falters, gold will take over the bubble baton as the LAST AND FINAL bubble, as exponential change takes us to the singularity in 2011/2012
2. drewster said...
The Export Land Model featured heavily on www.theoildrum.com for the last year or so. Nice to see the HPC crowd finally catching up ;-)
Another factor is EROEI - Energy Return On Energy Invested. If an oil well produces 100 barrels a day and uses 1 barrel of oil to keep the pumps running, then the EROEI is 100. The Canadian tar sands use 33 barrels of oil to extract 100 barrels, giving an EROEI of 3:1. So if the Canadians claim to produce 133 barrels of oil, but 33 of those are unavailable, then their real production is only 100 barrels. Multiply that effect across the world and you can see how the IEA's figures for "Total Liquids" are distorted. The only number that matters is how much is exported to the West.
3. Dark_horse said...
Love the graph, though I'd venture to suggest it's actually four decisions. Even allowing for inflation that's a damn fine return!
What do you mean by "last and final bubble" though? Surely bubbles are a function of human nature when everyone piles into something and presumes it'll always go up (Japan, dot-com, house prices etc etc.). Are you suggesting that the human race will actually learn?!?
4. sold 2 rent 1 said...
"At the time the North Sea peaked in 1999, the U.K. was exporting 1 million barrels of oil per day. By August 2004, it had become a net importer."
We are in for a crude awakening
5. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Looks like the bubbles are turning from greed to fear based again
Gold (1980) - fear
Nikkie (1990) - greed
Dot-com (2000)- pure greed
Property (2007) - fear (of not getting on the ladder) and greed of BTL
Oil (2008) - primarily fear of peak oil and a bit of greed
Gold (yet to come) - pure fear of complete banking system collapse.
6. sold 2 rent 1 said...
So not only does a bubble run from fear to greed and back gain.
But the serial bubble process itself runs from fear to greed and back again.
7. sold 2 rent 1 said...
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