Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Double digit falls predicted for 2008 and 2009
Times Online: House prices will fall 7% in 'uncertain' market
Conditions in the UK housing market will "get worse before they get better", with mortgage lending expected to fall by 21 per cent this year while house prices will decline by 7 per cent. "...it is looking ever more possible that house prices will suffer double-digit falls both this year and in 2009"
Posted by dan @ 01:13 PM (309 views) Add Comment
3 Comments
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1. Verymeanreversion said...
"double-digit falls both this year and in 2009"
With 5% inflation, I make that a minimum 27% real-terms drop by end 2009.(0.9*0.9*0.95*.95)
I never thought I hear a VI let that sort of prediction out.
2. growler said...
I had a relly belly laugh whilst reading the clip from CML when they made their prediction in October 2007 (listed on the HPC site). In it I found this dream comment from a person that must be the most fickle the financial world has foisted upon us folks.
Apparently someone thought the CML prediction of just 1% growth was a bit too conservative:
"To suggest house prices will rise just one per cent in 2008 represents an overly cautious approach from the CML. With an anticipated period of lower interest rates and the credit crunch now receding, I would predict a more realistic house price increase of five per cent in 2008, given the continuing supply/demand imbalance," said Stuart Law, chief executive, investment experts Assetz.
"While I would agree with the CML sales volumes are likely to fall next year, I do not expect this to have a significant impact on price. With fewer sellers than buyers expected in the market, this will in fact support prices, keeping them buoyant."
'nuff said, really. Every line has been proven total fantasy. Best of all is "fewer sellers than buyers". Since this is totally wrong, does Stu therefore think prices will not be "buoyant". By anyones logic this must be the case. But then, Stu is a special case and there will doubtless be a rephrasing to avoid looking a total Azz (sp?)
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