Monday, Apr 28, 2008
SCARY-there were only 15,800 repossesions in 1989
scotsman: there were only 15,800 resossessions in 1989
holy cow...we are already double the repos than end of 1989 which was 17 months into the slump.
Really scary statistics imo..could we see 150,000 repos at the bottom?
Posted by taffee @ 01:20 PM (1003 views) Add Comment
18 Comments
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1. uncle tom said...
"could we see 150,000 repos at the bottom"
I'm prediciting 2.5 million (including 500,000 BTL's) - too many to evict though, and expect some creative language to bypass the word reposession.
People will probably start talking about mortgage 'failures' - or borrow a term from the Japs, and talk of 'non-performing loans'
2. renting2 said...
Or 150,000 bank/government buy-back-and-rents?
3. jack c said...
.........."The sad news for those drowning under a sea of debt is that last week's 0.25% cut in base rates, which should trim £16 off a typical £100,000 mortgage, may do little to help" - what are they on about the last interest rate decision was Thursday 10th April.
In any event the reason why it is different this time around is because of the huge amount of unsecured lending running concurrent with secured mortgage lending.
This is going to be so big I suspect a bail-out of some kind is now almost a certainty
4. sold 2 rent 1 said...
UT,
"I'm prediciting 2.5 million (including 500,000 BTL's) - too many to evict though"
Exactly. The bailouts will have to continue, otherwise the banks will go bust and we will have social unrest on our hands.
Anyone with cash savings needs to take action now.
Gold is holding at 889 with its support on Friday of 877 intact.
Just added more gold positions today.
I still say gold to be 1500+ by the end of June
5. jack c said...
S2r1 - correct we need a hedge against inflation - hard earned cash in a Bank/BS is being eroded in real value day by day due to high taxation and inflation.
6. wiltshire said...
There are a huge number of savers in the UK. The banks and government will sacrifice them at their own peril.
7. waitingfor hpc said...
hey guys - don't forget money in the bank is performing better if you are waiting to buy a house....
8. sold 2 rent 1 said...
waitingfor hpc,
"hey guys - don't forget money in the bank is performing better if you are waiting to buy a house...."
Don't be so sure. Real interest rates are negative as inflation is really in double figures
The GBP is set to fall sharply against the USD.
More UK inflation on its way as all commodities are priced in USD.
9. Cheekie Charlie said...
S2R
"Don't be so sure. Real interest rates are negative as inflation is really in double figures"
If all your savings are for a future house purchase then any decrease in house prices is directly your gain.
10. mark wadsworth said...
It is true that real interest rates, after tax, are showing a small minus, maybe 1% or 2% per annum. That's still a sight better than anything else on offer.
11. mark wadsworth said...
Anyway, getting back on-topic, the worst years for repossessions came much later (incredible time delays and messing about involved). There were about 190,000 in 1990 to 1992.
Don't forget the number of actual physical repossessions is FAR LOWER than repossession orders, that is just the first stpe, and presumably a lot of people manage to straighten things out again and stay in their homes.
If I had to make a wild guess, I'd go for half a million over the next few years. 2.5 million seems a bit over the top, that's one-in-eight households, it ain't going to happen.
12. titaniccaptain said...
At what point in the last HPC did the government and media admit that there was a crash?
And what would happen to housing market if Barcleys and HBOS go down?
13. planning4acrash said...
What happens to the housing markets if the whole financial system falls? The loss of Barklays would surely be enough to precipitate events leading 2 that. Makes me think of those big domino rally adverts currently on tv. Is that 2subliminally prepare us?!
14. uncle tom said...
"that's one-in-eight households"
In the US, where the bubble did not inflate anything like as high as it has here, there are already 17.5% of mortgage holders who are defaulting on their payments.
2 million mortgaged owner occupiers throwing in the towel in the UK is roughly the same proportion. Half a million BTLs is also realistic, as the portfolio brigade are set to get snared.
Britain's mountain of debt is very unevenly spread - I estimate that the most indebted 10% of the population are carrying more than 50% of the total. There's probably over a million households whose finances are beyond redemption, even without a house price crash - their finances having been bailed out by repeatedly MEWing.
15. planning4acrash said...
This is what annoys me. I'm debt free. Why should I suffer!
16. jonb said...
17.5% of mortgage holders is not the same thing as 17.5% of households. A surprisingly large number of people own their house outright.
17. uncle tom said...
"A surprisingly large number of people own their house outright"
In the UK there are roughly 18 million owner occupied properties, of which approximately one third are owned outright. The US has a similar percentage of tenants, but of owner occupiers, the percentage who own outright is higher than in the UK.
My estimate of 2 million UK owner-occupier mortgagees throwing in the towel represents about 17% of the total.
18. micasasucasa said...
@uncle tom
I suspect a contributing factor in the US is the fact that people can walk away from mortgage debt - they can't here!