Wednesday, Apr 30, 2008
Nationwide goes YoY negative!
Press Association: House prices fall 1% in one year
House prices have fallen by 1% during the past 12 months, the first year-on-year fall since 1996, figures show.
The cost of a home dropped for the sixth month in a row during April, sliding by 1.1%, as the credit crunch continued to take its toll on the property market.
The fall helped turn annual house price growth negative for the first time in 12 years, leaving property values 1% lower than they were in April 2007, according to Nationwide Building Society.
Posted by little professor @ 07:57 AM (1704 views) Add Comment
35 Comments
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1. little professor said...
2. hpwatcher said...
I guess it's a start, but I want to see more, a lot more!
3. planning4acrash said...
That is a signal to fire sale for sheeple who didn't offload quietly in response to the real warning signs, the falling shareprices of banks, builders, etc. etc. last Christmas.
4. little professor said...
Report pdf here:
5. str 2007 said...
Looking at the figures on the graphs house prices only have to stay level to be showing YoY falls of 4% by October.
But they're not they're falling at 1-2% per month so we could be looking at 10-15% YoY falls by October and that doesn't include a year of inflation.
It's going to be busy here today.
6. uncle tom said...
OK, try this:
Go to http://www.houseprices.co.uk/ and look up your home postcode. Count the number of transactions in the most recent month shown (in my case, to 20th March) and then look back to the same period last year.
Where I live (CB11) there have been six transactions in the month to March 20th '08, compared to 33 in the same period last year - an 82% drop in activity!
7. Orwell said...
MPC time?
8. confused76 said...
Sorry someone said I cannot laugh....
MWUH AHHA HAHHAHAHHAHH HA AHHA AAAHAHHA HAHAHAHAHH
9. cornishman said...
@ UT
we have 7 transactions this March v 29 last March. A drop of around 75% in activity. Major chain of estate agents has shut nearby branch.
[ ! lol ! - the "u" and the "i" key are right next to each other and I initially mis-typed i for u in "shut"...]
10. Runforthehills said...
I visited house prices. In my area, N8, looking at transactions from Feb 18th-March 18th 2008, there were 28 transactions. From the same period a year previous there were 67! That's a drop of 58%. How unfortunate. April will be a massacre. Also, unless house prices rise, we are in for as least a year of Y-O-Y falls. Bigger each time for a while as well.
11. Ijjhall said...
Keep it going Confused - I love your laughs.
12. geed said...
Got me out of bed this did! and it was worth it. Expect the press to whip up a frenzy. Lurvley.
13. growler said...
@str2007: Absolutely. With the front end of the line now dipping below the back end of the line, as the months go on, the YoY will go into FREEFALL
WHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAHAAAHAHAH
14. rickyb said...
In my town there were 46 in March 2007, and 3 in March 2008. I wonder if this data is up to date for March though, as February 2007 saw 38, and February 2008 saw 21, only a 45% drop.
15. C'mon Correction said...
"She added that, unlike the 1990s crash, more people were on fixed-rate than variable-rate mortgage deals and this helped the stability of the market. "
Fixed-rate mortgages of more than 2-3 years is still really rare in the UK market, most people will come off their fixed-rates from past few years - so NO IT WILL DO VERY LITTLE FOR THE STABILITY OF THE MARKET.
I WISH THESE V.I.'S WOULD STOP COMING UP WITH BULL-SH!T AND JUST LET THE MARKET FIND AN AFFORDABLE, SUSTAINABLE LEVEL AGAIN AND NOT ENCOURAGE MORE TO GET INTO FINANCIAL DIFFICULTIES FOR THE REST OF THEIR LIFE.
16. uncle tom said...
Rickyb,
The listing is up to date to March 20th, so you need to count from Feb 22 onwards (not forgetting the leap year!) and then compare with Feb 21 - Mar 20 last year
I've tried a few more postcodes - some rural areas are 90% down, but in London the change is much less - e.g. N14 down 24 to 18.
This is a buyer's market without precedent, except that only a fool would look to enter the market or upsize now.
17. str 2007 said...
SL7
to 25th March '07 & '08
'07 = 21 transactions ave. value 423k
'08 = 8 transactions ave. value 540k
Assuming they've all been posted that shows a 66% fall in transactions but a 27.5% increase in price.
I think this is the problem with a small sample.
But about 450 transactions in the year at an ave. of say 450k x 1.5% = just over £3m / by about 8 Estate Agents = about 380k each.
More than enough money to support a shop and 3 salaries and advertising.
Now take 380k -66% and £120k is starting to get pretty tight I reckon.
Hope they've been putting some by in the good times.
18. Baroo said...
Some people here seem to be miss interpretting this graph.
str 2007 @ 5: Where do you get 4% if things stay the same from? Look at the numbers in the table. There is not enough info on the graphs to easily find out what the price falls will be in Oct if pricecs stay the same. Price now=£178555, Price last Oct=£186044. Therefore if things stay the same the YoY price fall in Oct 2008 will be:
178555/186044*100= 6%
You are right about 10-15 for a 1% monthly fall though:
178555*0.99*0.99*0.99*0.99*0.99*0.99=168105
PriceNow * -1% * -1% * -1% * -1% * -1% * -1%=PriceOct2008
so YoY fall in Oct 2008 at -1% pm:
100 - (168105/186044*100) = 10%
or
100% - (PriceOct07/PriceOct08*100) = 10 %
A bit more at -2%
growler @ 10
YoY price fall will only go into FREEFALL if the prices themselves go in to free fall. Not sure what you mean by "front end of the line now dipping below the back end of the line". Look at the numbers, not the graph.
19. waiting for the crash said...
Up to feb available in my postcode
08 - 20
07 - 33
20. Sold My Soul To The Never Never Never said...
I like using home.co.uk figures. According to their statistics only 1 flat sold (sorry apartment) in January 2008 in my area - there were also 184 on the market at that time according to their statistics - at that rate it would take 15 years to clear them all! Since then a glut of flats have been dumped on the EA's.
21. str 2007 said...
SL7
Feb '07 24 No.
Feb '08 18 No.
That's 25% down
But sales registered in February I suspect were agreed in November.
I expect we will see more significant falls in transactions to come.
22. waiting for the crash said...
Update - Just done the avg sale price in my postcode
Feb 07 - £350,828 volume 34
Feb 08 - £322,714 volume 21
Thanks little professor I was thinking about how I could use houseprices.co.uk to monitor prices last night.
23. voiceofreason said...
For me the best news this morning was reporting of Mervyn King's remarks yesterday.
He laid into the whole City of London industry.
Took his time, but maybe he can only attack now that the City is on the back foot .. ?
24. waiting for the crash said...
Correction:
My earlier credit should have included uncle tom for the comment about houseprices.co.uk. I would also like to credit little professor for the post.
25. Dave The Dog said...
Sale volumes in my postcode
Feb 07 = 64
Feb 08 = 27
26. str 2007 said...
@ Baroo No. 18.
186k - 4% = 178.5k.
That's where I get my numbers from.
How do you make that 6% ?
27. Baroo said...
@str2007
you are indeed correct. appologies.
28. Jonathan said...
GU9 =
07: 43
08: 33
-23%. Not too excting yet ...
29. Jonathan said...
@ Baroo
I make it a clip over 4%
30. Mfarley said...
WC1 activity
2007 - 26
2008 - 7
That's a 73% fall !!!
So much for the central London market holding up
31. Rentslave said...
WC1
2007 - 26
2008 - 7
That's a 73% fall !!!
So much for the central London market holding up
32. Btl Rules said...
SL3
prices still going up, at least for brick built houses
33. Mattkw007 said...
Been following this site since early 2006 just after I sold my house to rent in December 2005. My area is SO40, 7 sales in March 08, 84 in March 07 ! Keep up the good work guys.
34. letthemfall said...
11 plays 41 2007 in my part of Surrey. The site's page links need sorting out though.
35. Bfskinner said...
Btl rules @ 32
SL3 = 75 HOUSES with price reductions between 1 and 18%
over 300 price drops for houses in Slough as a whole. (propertysnake.co.uk)
maybe they are still 'rising' in the sense that they are higher than a given point last year. Much in the same way that a plane about to crash is still higher than it was just before take off