Tuesday, Apr 29, 2008
House prices increase by 50% next year.....NOT
The Press Association: House prices 'could fall by 30%'
House prices could drop by around 30% over the next few years if interest rates are not cut, a senior Bank of England official has warned................Could be worse than 30%
Posted by titaniccaptain @ 08:36 PM (880 views) Add Comment
14 Comments
- If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
- If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
- Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
- Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
- Please adhere to the Guidelines
1. whiteknight said...
There it is again. Who was asking me about that the other day?
2. Orwell said...
Could? 30%? Pull the other one!
3. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
The man is a whole sideshow unto himself. To paraphrase the first three sentence-paragraphs:
- WARNING HOUSE PRICES COULD COLLAPSE!!!
- However that's probably a good thing.
- BUT WE MUST TAKE AGGRESSIVE ACTION NOW! NOW! NOW!
Sweet Mr Blanchflower, either a complete lunatic, or a snake in the grass of the worst kind - the kind that purports to be looking after peoples' interests but is blatantly only interested in their own agenda. Oh, hello Mr. Brown, I didn't see you there, no, I wasn't talking about you as such..
4. renting2 said...
With all the other economic woes, UK house prices might actually be the least of our worries. Things like "how can I afford to get to work?" and "how can I afford to feed my family today?".
Business owners may start asking "how can I pay my staff this month?" and "how do I pay my supplier?"
We will probably see a significant rise in business debtor days, with the big businesses knowing they can shaft the smaller concerns.
HPC? More like UK Crash.
5. titaniccaptain said...
Well said Renting2
6. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
So, 1/3 would take it to 4x earnings? (ergo he sees the current situation at 6x).
4x salary mortgages were flashing warning signs as "dangerously large" barely a couple of years ago.
I'd say 4x earnings is well above trend. I'd expect the trough to come in around 3x.
Using Mr Fairyflower's figures here, that implies a 50% drop.
7. Lumsden said...
"House prices could drop by around 30% over the next few years if interest rates are not cut, a senior Bank of England official has warned."
And the last few cuts from the Muppettry Policy Committee have done a fat lot of good so far............
8. plato said...
That's exactly it Renting2
9. growler said...
... Indeed.
I can see many more redundancies looming - some will not make quarter three.
I know removal people, building trade, investment bankers and an estate agent relative share the same view: we ain't seen nothin' yet
Happy days. We're now dropping down the big dipper and all of the indices on the front page of this site will report that not only are MoM negative, all the YoYs will be too.
It doesn't matter if interest rate are nothing. There is no way anyone will buy anything - house included - if you think that it's value will fall as soon as you've completed the purchase.
As for the rented sector - I think this is delayed indicator. I'm renting since May (sold April 07) and the landlords around here (South Bucks) are coming to tenants with 4-5% requests for rent increases. That's not exactly boom boom. Once the "no onward chain vacant possession" property owners are weary of no income and no sale - rents will become VERY competitive.
10. bystander said...
"We will probably see a significant rise in business debtor days, with the big businesses knowing they can shaft the smaller concerns."
..love the idea of these debtor days renting 2 perhaps we could call them BANK HOLIDAYS.
11. bystander said...
"Mr Blanchflower said: "My biggest concern right now is that the credit crisis will trigger a rapid downward spiral in activity. I do feel that the slower rates fall, the further they will eventually have to go down to boost the economy."
...how the f*ck will cutting rates stimulate the economy when the banks and building societies aren't passing these rate cuts on to business or private borrowers????? This man has and always will be a one trick pony, and that pony is lame, blind, deaf and dumb.......glue anyone?????
12. Rimmer said...
However if you cut rates the £ will slide against the dollar and fuel will rocket to £10 a gallon, we may all then have to march on parliment and demand justice like "V for Vendeta".
Just how far would you like those rates cut?
13. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
This guy just doesn't know which end to talk out of.
In one breath he makes the statement that falls of 30 % would restore the market to a "more sustainable" house price-to-earnings ratio.
Which basically is the common dam sense thing to say.
Then in the next breath states that interest rates should be cut to stop it?
Is he that much of a complete loser? Really. How did he get the job again?
14. Jack said...
The best thing is that this made the front page on the London Metro. If public sentiment and expectation of house price rises was, as has been said, responsible for a third of the hp inflation over the last 5 years, then getting this kind of blunt warning message in front of the eyes of the public is exactly what is required to get that sentiment pointing the other way. With sustained coverage and media realisation that high house prices are good for nobody, phrases like "long-term average" will become common vernacular. I hope this crash over-shoots significantly and that the estate agents don’t somehow persuade the public that the crash has happened before its conclusion.