Wednesday, Apr 30, 2008
FTSE down to 4300 by end of summer????
Mclaren report: April 16 2008 CNBC Powerlunch Europe
Comparing the 1969 bear campaign to now. Could we have a 37pc drop in stocks by the end of summer
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:51 AM (217 views) Add Comment
7 Comments
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1. Landedgentry said...
Sell in May and go away.
2. Btl Rules said...
think you will find there are a few sectors suffering on the FTSE, and there is no gereral problen. So whilst a drop from peak of 6600 to 4300 is always possible, even the gloomsters that inhabit this site will see that as unlikely.
3. plato said...
No........... I disagree Btl. I see this as highly likely and have already taken steps to avoid the consequences of such a drop,although I've probably commited myself a bit early. The problem for me is not 'whether' but 'when'? It is extremely difficult if not almost impossible to get the timing right. This is the basic problem and I think s2r1 has a very valid point here.
If you could choose the right sectors it would be easy,as would many IFs, but you may do well to heed his warning in my view. Nothing to do with 'gloomsters' ---------- Just an alternative view backed by stats.
4. Btl Rules said...
Fair enough Plato, I hope it works out for you mate. I did sell a load of Easyjet shares the other day @276 and find that they are @310 a couple of days later but as you say it's all about timing and an amount of luck.
5. jack c said...
FTSE100, DAX, CAC, DOW all currently up today - however whilst I'm a very long term investor I'm monitoring markets more closely than ever before - I'm now leaning towards taking a VERY defensive position (probably after the bank holiday)
techieman - your thoughts/input please
6. techieman said...
hey jack. My thoughts havent changed actually - bullish this week but i think ive given levels. i.e. FTSE 6200 and Dax 7100 Having said that before the cut tonight i thought the Dow would respond well unless they didnt cut. Now though it looks like after a rise above 13,000 Dow - as i write this back down to 12,830. Thats not good.
Not particularly helpful - sorry , my account is only small up on the move and i would have really hoped for a significant move up by now. Instead its making really hard work of this.
But after this bullish move disapates (if it is a bullish move!) then i'll probably turn bearish. - have always said we are in a bear market rally just thought it goes higher than some of the other "gloomsters" first. Why is it that these BTL folks all have such a great sense of humour? Interesting level on £/Eur and interesting action today (i.e. couldnt hold gains).
7. jack c said...
techieman - how bizarre my thoughts are almost identical FTSE to reach approx 6200 level at which point I'm out of the market and into cash - the ISA platforms now offer a cash reserve or cash park facility !
Why is it that these BTL folks all have such a great sense of humour? - they need a sense of humour in the current market - the mortgage market is in turmoil - although greenbay will tell us otherwise - having said that he didnt respond to our previous postings on Sundays thread.