Thursday, Mar 27, 2008
Hhhhmmmmm Tempting
Property People Magazine: Spread betting on house prices
Spreadfair clients were predicting that the average UK house price would decrease by the end of 2008, but in the last month they see the average UK house price to be three per cent higher by that date than their estimate two months ago.
Posted by titaniccaptain @ 09:31 PM (628 views) Add Comment
9 Comments
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1. Btl Rules said...
keep dreaming losers, house prices only going up
2. new user 2007 said...
Interesting. But, as I suggested when the same spread betting was suggesting a fall in prices a few months ago, this is just some people gambling. The trades will probably not even reach the end of the year methinks i.e. they will be unwound well before then.
3. titaniccaptain said...
@New user 2007
I know its a gamble but what about betting against a bank i.e. Barcleys a week ago or northern rock last year when the new hit the headlines...when news of that magnitude hits the press the following day a day trade might be a good idea????? what you think guys...I really dont know...if another bank seems to be going northern rock would it be a good idea to bet against it?
4. Mbk said...
This is really desperate. The speads are predicting a fall of 9% in 9 months ie a proper HPC and they interpret this as good news. lol
5. drewster said...
How many people are using this SpreadFair thing? The figures are fairly meaningless if there are only a handful of players.
6. new user 2007 said...
titanic...
The difference is that stock markets move in real time and require constant monitoring of positions. I think the positions/contracts betting on the housing market will be closed well before they are due to expire (although I am not an expert on spread betting so I may be missing something) as the market moves so slowly.
Betting on a falling bank share is probably a good call, but like anything it will depend on the timing and the terms of the contract. I am only at the stage of buying real shares and do not touch derivatives at all...lack the confidence and guts:)
At the end of the day it is all made up. The professionals merely make it sound like they have backed it with anything other guesswork and that the market does not just move with sentiment...when US rates dropped by 75 points recently they had already been priced in BUT shares went up as markets expected 100 points...
...this meant that they thought "the Fed was not as worried as feared". Yet it could have been a drop as "markets had priced in a drop of 100 points and did not get it, suggesting that the Fed was not acting enough to prevent a recession".
7. Sax4 said...
This story doesn't portray what the source data tells us.
Per the actual spreadfair site, those in this market believe:
The average house price in Dec '08 (Halifax Quarterly House Price Survey) will be somewhere between £180.0k and £183.5k, a mean of £181.75k.
For December '07 it states the average per the same source was £197.1k, so that's a £15.35k or 7.79% pa drop.
8. Afcone said...
Interesting spin - spreadfair is predicing London prices will fall by 17% (in nominal terms!) over the next three years. But according to "Property People" magazine, this is *bullish* news...
9. titaniccaptain said...
New user
I think it needs more looking into ...ie. if I heard that HBOS was going down the tubes at midnight tonight then to put a spread bet on at 9.am the following morning could be a good idea.....you can pull out instatntly I believe with spread betting within an hour and also Day trading I also believe is tax free but dont quote me on that....still looking at it...there is a video demo with barcleys on finacial spread trading thats worth a look.....But I think its worth investigating and any opinions on this are welcome