Saturday, Mar 22, 2008
Gotta love the optimism
timesonline: Credit crisis: Experts assess how bad it is
"London house prices are unlikely to dip for long. The 1.5 million unaccounted for Eastern Europeans will surely underpin the rental market." - David Buik, partner, BGC Partners
...surely when you take into account the demise of sterl;ing against every major currency, especially the Euro, these hidden numbers will remain hidden, back in their country of origin.
"Conditions are unprecedented. The interconnected and complex financial system may itself fail catastrophically - if so, all bets are off. Consider accumulating a stock of barter goods. Rice is especially good - it stores well." - Jon Moulton, managing partner, Alchemy Partners
...ANYONE GOT A STORE OF RICE - I'VE GOT A COUPLE OF BAGS OF SUGAR.
Posted by bystander @ 07:22 AM (600 views) Add Comment
5 Comments
- If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
- If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
- Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
- Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
- Please adhere to the Guidelines
1. hpwatcher said...
"London house prices are unlikely to dip for long. The 1.5 million unaccounted for Eastern Europeans will surely underpin the rental market."
I think you will find that no-one from eastern europe can afford the high rents that are required to pay other people's mortgages, on the hugely overpriced properties that they have bought.
2. uncle chris said...
Oh my goodness - their only hope for the housing market rests with unaccounted 1.5 million unaccounted Eastern Europeans - seriously, is that all they have to cling to !!!!! Well, could I suggest checking the vast caravan complexes at many farms (tied accommodation), or large victorian rentals which have 5/6 people to a room, or even tents in local parks or along the canal system. I believe well over 50% of people attending soup kitchens are now from Eastern Europe, so why not send your mortgage advisors there. I think (as commented above) that you'll find that the vast majority (90%+) will be sending all their spare cash (if they have any) home. They certainly won't be stumping up £60,000+ deposits for homes in London.
I have to say, I'm starting to think that this crash will be far worse than the 30-40% I was predicting a couple of years back. FTBs ... gone. BTLs .... gone. Bank of Mum and Dad ..... wise to the situation. Now we have the "fundamental" of unaccounted Eastern Europeans propping up the market - talk about desperate!
3. hpwatcher said...
I'm starting to think that this crash will be far worse than the 30-40% I was predicting a couple of years back
I agree. I thing we will see a return to mid/late 90's pricing, aside from a UK/US depression.
4. Scottie said...
. Lenders will reduce valuations as has already started and then perhaps only lend 75 % of property values if at all,in a rapidly falling market . Already the average buyer should be looking for a 15-20 % reduction off the listing price.
Equations quite simple. not enough finance. no of sales reduced, houses then will loose more value. Eventual falls will probably exceed 30% might even get to 50%. Look for the party to really get going end of spring 2009. Lots of people will hold their prices up for about another 6 -8 months then have to face reality and accept the market
These professionals are protecting their jobs refusing to face reality.
5. drewster said...
The Eastern Europeans are leaving Britain for several reasons:
1) The Pound is losing value against most other currencies (except the dollar) - it's at a recod low against the Euro. The Polish zloty has increased in value from 6.11 to the pound in 2006 to 4.6 today. That's an increase of 33%.
2) The economies of Eastern Europe are improving. In Poland, salaries are up 10% a year since 2006.
--- Combined with the increase in currency, that's a 50% improvement!
3) The cost of living in Eastern Europe remains cheaper.
4) Jobs are becoming more plentiful there as Western European companies export jobs.
5) Soon, Eastern Europeans will be allowed to work in France, Spain, Italy, and many other Western European countries. (Germany is keeping its labour market closed for now).
Taken together, this means the million or more Eastern European workers have good reason to be heading home!