Thursday, Mar 27, 2008
gold over $1,200 in 2008
Safe Haven: Doug Casey: "Gold is Going to the Moon"
Just to reach its previous high in purchasing power, gold will have to go over $2,500 - probably more like $3,000 after you discount the phoniness in the government's CPI numbers. But because this crisis is much more serious than the one in the late 1970s and early '80s and much more far-ranging, $3,000 is actually a fairly conservative number. I'll say it again: gold is not just going through the roof, it's going to the moon.
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:33 PM (771 views) Add Comment
6 Comments
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1. harold said...
At some point in the cycle (historically) the DOW can be purchased for an ounce of gold. At the moment the DOW is north of 12,000, while gold is 950. This probably means that the DOW is likely to fall dramatically, while gold will rise dramatically. When, is anybody's guess.
2. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Gold Thoughts by Ned W. Schmidt
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9786.htm
"Most corrections have at least three phases, a down leg, an up leg, and a third wave down. That pattern is likely to be a fair guess as what is to come. Rush from paper assets to commodities lasted more than six months. Such a run is not likely to be corrected in a matter of weeks. Corrections have price, time, and emotion dimensions. All three will have to play out. Investors should build cash in order to buy $Gold when correction is completed. And the good news? This consolidation may set the stage for US$1,500, and perhaps higher"
3. sold 2 rent 1 said...
"At some point in the cycle (historically) the DOW can be purchased for an ounce of gold. When, is anybody's guess."
And my guess is summer 2011. Martin Amrstong's PI cycle low. This shoud be timed nicely with gold's stage 3 surge in 2010-2011. We are only in upleg 2 of stage 2 at the moment. Long way to go.
4. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Here is the graph you are looking for
http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/downloads/Dow_Gold.doc
5. cornishman said...
Just to offer a bit of balance here, don't overlook the fact that the BTL VIs are still talking up BTL investments and some equity people are making out that now is a good time to buy equities.
The information war works all ways.
[S2R1 - the absence of bank charges was the main reason why I moved my accounts to Abbey]
6. harold said...
sold 2 rent 1, great graph. It shows that the DOW has a long way to fall with respect to real money (gold), and therefore that gold is still in the relatively early stages of a secular bull. The ride will be bumpy, particularly if you favour gold's counterpart, silver, but shoule preserve your wealth well and allow you to move back into equities in a few years time (probably post 2012).
P.S. Just one question: how on earth is this country going to afford the Olympics?
I have no intention of being a tax payer here by then.