Friday, Mar 28, 2008
Euro rate cut - April, May or June
The Telegraph: Euro too strong, Sarkozy tells the City
The French President, who arrived in the UK for a state visit on Wednesday, also used his speech at the Guildhall to praise Britain's economic model, saying France would do well to emulate it.
He is right. The French couldn't emulate our boom. They won't have a chance at emulating our bust.
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:46 AM (330 views) Add Comment
8 Comments
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1. bystander said...
Euro now trading at 1.26 to the pound......call a referendum and get the GBP into the Euro at an exchange rate of 1.40 and all will be well. If not quit with the rate cuts and give sterling and the British public a chance....if there is a recession inflation will drop eventually, as is hoped in the US, but secondary inflation and public disordewr will have magnified. Trust in an already tarnished government and financial system will just prolong the agony. No-one trusts their bank, and now no-one trusts those organizations set up to safeguard the public from the sort of fraudulent practices of the past decade. Rate cuts won't make this go away, it will just perpetuate the problem. Strong currency equates to confident public.
2. techieman said...
bystander: 1. Euro - forget it, its a flawed system because you have divirgent cultures, economies, etc etc. Really was only a political football which the germans and French have used to score own goals (open to debate there). 2. The pound - i am in a minority here who thinks that both the £ and $ will rise soon, in both terms of time and price. New all time highs of the Euro / £ and Euro / $ - will in my view exhaust the up move, perhaps occassioned in part by intervention and / or Rate cuts a la Mr T. Is my money where my mouth is? Yes - hold Euro cash investments which i will be hedging soon and have sold the £/$ at 2.03 as believe the $ gets stronger against both £ and Euro (but Euro more obviously) but waiting for a top then retrace towards prior high on Euro / $, before i initiate Euro shorts. Bystander - this is not a personal vendetta against your views - and yes the cod was particularly good the other night. BTW did you see the post yesterday re HBOS - gone strangely quiet though hasnt it?!?
3. inbreda said...
I would appreciate anyones comments regarding the fact that I plan to move to France in 12 to 18 months. Should I hedge the currencies now (i.e. sell the GBP against teh Euro) in case it gets worse between now and when I buy, or should I hold off?
4. bystander said...
Techieman - I appreciate your point of view and hope you are soon proved to be right. I too believe the euro is based upon the strength of one, maybe two country states and these two, you named them, don't trust each other and have very different agendas, as can be seen by Sarkozy, cosyiong up with GB. You have proved, in the past to understand the workings of many financial and exchange systems, much better than I, and your opinion is important and well received. Glad you enjoyed the cod. I did see that post and look forward to seeing the chairman and the board offloading their shares, a la the bear in the near future.
5. shipbuilder said...
Sarkozy's praise for the UK economic model will look like an embarrassing mistake in a year's time and he will be slaughtered for it in the French press. He won his election on the promise of economic reform similar to the UK, so it will be interesting how the French react to our HPC and recession. Maybe they will get a lucky escape. I wonder if Sarkozy realises he has nailed his flag to the mast of a sinking ship - his praise of a failed government and their policies will not bode well for his own political career - Howard's support of the US sank him in Australia.
6. sara said...
inbreda - we've just agreed to buy a place in France - I bought the deposit at 1.2975 a couple weeks ago just hours before it dived and forward bought the money for the remainder of the house a couple of hours afterwards (whilst it was dropping) at 1.2750 and have been heaving a sigh of relief since then. However, I agree with techieman the rates will go the other way, so I'm holding on before exchanging the rest of our money. If your not looking to buy immediately then I'd wait, but be prepared to move fast because it's definitely going to be a rocky couple of years. FYI - I used www.currencies.co.uk and was really happy with the service.
Disclaimer - this is my opinion not professional advice ;-)
7. bystander said...
Can't seem to post an article from the timesonline entitled "Goodbye Rip-Off Britain", which is a shame as it is very good and the comments below are worth reading: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/martin_samuel/article3634764.ece
This section stands out, especially when considering GB's real agenda, with regards to the sterling (IMHO he is deliberately orchestrating the demise so he can profit, the country can profit, from his astute busines acumen, rather than his ridiculously short sighted behaviour with 'our' gold reserves in 1999), enjoy:
"Brown got away with murder because he was Chancellor in the days when chimps could make money. In May 1999, he sold half the country's gold reserves during a 20-year low in the market at an average price of $275 an ounce. Yesterday morning the price of gold was approximately $946 an ounce. Brown bought euros instead, which have done well, but even so the cost to the nation of this mistake is measured in billions;"
8. Fed Up said...
I doubt whether an ECB rate cut will help Sterling because it will only encourage the BoE to cut rates further. The ECB's 'hawkish' stance so far has acted as a brake, without which the BoE will feel free to slash rates the way the Fed has done.