Thursday, Mar 20, 2008
Beginning of the end of the denial phase....
London Metro: Britain faces worse housing crash than US
''...Britain could follow the US into severe economic slowdown – and see an even worse house price crash, experts have warned. Parallels between consumer spending in the two countries are 'disturbing', said the respected financial forecaster Capital Economics.
...''
Posted by hpwatcher @ 06:33 AM (1315 views) Add Comment
22 Comments
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1. hpwatcher said...
For the the Metro to be saying it, really is something. They don't appear to been either particularly bullish or bearish on house prices.
2. Landedgentry said...
I'd see some glum commuters this morning if I had a "proper" job. LOL
3. Orwell said...
Roger Bootle may well have been right after all...
4. voiceofreason said...
A strong recession for 2008/9/10 will be a period of great opportunity to those of us who have been living within our means for the last 8 or so years.
With little debt and cash savings, we can start businesses and out compete existing highly leveraged competitors who are struggling with a massive interest payment burden.
We can use our cash to purchase assets at knock down prices.
Sure, business will be hard, but then it is in boom times too because of increased levels of competition.
Nothing to fear for some of us.
5. plato said...
So here we have an unbiased opinion like that of many on this site. The facts are there and have been there for some time, so stop complaining all you VIs and take the consequences like men.
6. hpwatcher said...
stop complaining all you VIs and take the consequences like men
They will squeal like pigs for rate cuts, and they will probably get em'
7. planning4acrash said...
I sense a few cancelled dinner parties this long weekend! The first house price casualty!
8. techieman said...
Capital Economics - Come on Roger make your mind up - it was a 20% fall starting in 2004 , then it was a 3% fall from the recent highs now its erm well what exactly is your prediction Mr. B - and can you have one that you actually keep to this time? No offence!
9. Debtfree said...
nearly all the commuters would have seen that page this morning.
its gone from riches, then bad to worse than the US sub prime crisis in a matter of months.
bet there were a few sunken guts out there today wondering how quick they can sell up and make some profit before they go under with the banks. what a shame. poor them.
10. doomwatch said...
techieman : to be fair to Capital Economics, I don't think even they anticipated just how stupid & greedy the lenders
would be over the last 5-8 years, thereby keeping the bubble going longer than sensible prediction.
11. Jaz said...
"The consultancy, led by one of the City's leading economists, Roger Bootle, has long been predicting that the British house price boom would come to an end."
What a genius - I wish I could borrow his crystal ball. Maybe I could then predict something equally profound such as autumn follows summer?
12. techieman said...
Doomwatch - fair point but i am talking about the recent months.I think the economic models these boys use are about as useful as a chocolate teapot. Didnt Roge go for a 3% fall only a few months ago or am i confused? Even the front of this website says under "predictions" . "Capital Economics see the economy slowing in 2008 and have cut their forecast yet again."
13. mark wadsworth said...
Fair play to Roger Bootle, he has been predicting a crash for about as long as I have (since about 2003*), sooner or later, history will prove us right!
* This was long before I met Fred Harrison, who has been pointing out the 18 year cycles since the 1980s.
14. Fools said...
@ plato said..... So here we have an 'unbiased' opinion 'like that of many on this site'
give the man a comedy award!!
15. techieman said...
Mark sooner or later the price of houses will again increase at a fast rate (unless there is a seismic shift in the fiscal policy as you yourself posted per Ricardo).
Using your logic we should just buy a house now and wait. Really anyone can say that and be proved right - but i would like my forecasters to get it right at about the right time and price - is that really too much to ask? You brought up Fred H, and he did stick his neck out and forecast against Roge at the time.You are right Roge did forecast a crash in about 2003 but how much did property rise since his forecast. I just think highly paid people who profess to know about the state of the economy using their resources should have a bit more of a handle on things.
Just in case someone misreads your point about FH (i.e. any newbies) FH has been pointing out the 18 year cycle for the last 30ish years. However the cycle itself - per FH - and excluding 2 WWs - is intact over 400 years. You could read your comment as the cycle has only been running since the 80s. Not trying to be a smart ar*e.
As i said the other day the smart money gets out NEAR the top, the lucky money gets out AT the top and the stupid money stays in PAST the top. These guys are paid to be smart.
16. renting2 said...
Beware, those of us thinking of snapping up bargains, they are the VIs of tomorrow!
17. techieman said...
Hey Fools - nice to see a Bull with some valuable input. Can we have some rationale for some bullish views please. Would still really like to give some more bulls the opportunity to try to convince me.
18. sold out said...
renting2
"Beware, those of us thinking of snapping up bargains, they are the VIs of tomorrow!"
What does that mean? I am certainly going to be taking advantage and buying myself a house at bargain prices, as and when i believe the bottom of the market has arrived( probably 2011,but thats my prediction).Why will i then become a VI?
I will just be buying a home for my family, without being indebted to the bank. The real VI,s are the property developers and banks,and then all the other parasites that feed of the "property market".I shall be shedding no tears for any of these people,because they are the ones who have profited and caused this ridiculous boom in the first place.On the subject of BTL's my feeling is that you cannot really catagorise all these people together and brand them scum etc,although some most defineatly are.There are some BTL's who have lost there pensions thanks to gordon brown (mr stability) and have then been poorly advised and invested in property at the wrong time and thats a shame.Hopefully Regulation of the property investment industry will be forthcoming soon and Estate agents etc will be forced to comply to financial guidlines similar to other industries and hopefully companies like Inside track will be made illegal.
19. paul said...
When I saw the headline on the train this morning I chuckled. Other commuters scowled at me.
Hehe.
20. Fools said...
techieman,
I neither a bull nor a bear, I enjoy reading the articles on here and some very useful contributors, eg happyrenterz etc, and have respect for fair debate but this site is now full of BS, and aftertiming on part of many!!, and then I think to myself....it's not like houseprices have actually dropped yet!! because utimately that seems to be the ambition of said folk. As for me I'm just a normal person, no BTL etc, not bought a house in the last 5 years etc
21. techieman said...
Apologies "Fools" - it was the name made me think you were saying people on this site were fools or maybe other people are fools paying over the odds. Personally i would like to see prices fall - not because i have anything against people making money from property but because i have sold mine and would like to re-enter at a sensible price. If im wrong i will be as we say "wearing it".
22. Fools said...
no worries techieman, I can understand your reasoning. I think I was reading a thread one day, which was really vicious about those loveable BTL's, and I guess my username had some of it's contributors in mind. In fact there's a similar one today wanting people to die with cancer and burn in hell, or whatever..can't remember exactly. Luckily I bought a property in '94 after Uni, and it's (almost) paid for. If prices do come down I have some ideas for investment, so I'm not really fussed either way. I think there is always two sides to every story, and I find this current world econony situation fascinating. I like playing devils advocate a lot of the time just to put the other side across, and probably end up sounding too bullish. I genuinely don't think a HPC in this country is a done deal, however likely it's looking at present. There are forces working which were not factors in previous downturns. It will eventually happen but if thats in a few years time it might be too many for lots on here. A bit of humbleness wouldn't go amiss rather thinking you're ( not you personally, techieman ) on a 1.01 shot and shouting it in everyones face. Anyway, don't know if anyone was watching Bloomberg after NYSE closed tonight and boy did they have some bulls on there. Look forward to some banter in the future!!