Monday, Feb 11, 2008
The latest VI data from Connells Survey & Valuation.
MortgageSolutions: Mortgage approvals rise in January
Mortgage approvals for house purchase rose in January from their December low, according to the latest data from Connells Survey & Valuation. The change represents the first increase in mortgage approvals since May 2007. Approvals increased by 3% in January to 75,300 from 73,000 in December. Connells has seen a rise in housing stock coming onto the market and renewed interest from househunters.
Posted by jack c @ 10:42 AM (611 views) Add Comment
12 Comments
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1. hpwatcher said...
They wish!
I will wait to see data from a more independent source.
Not that I will be buying anytime soon, with inflation, HPC and a UK recession....
2. Jackas said...
"Despite the improvement, the January figure was the weakest January since Bank of England records began (in 1994). Compared to January 2007, the decline in approvals was 38%. Mortgage approvals had fallen in ten of the last twelve months."
That says it all for me.
I think the collapse of mortgage lending is the biggest single factor we have on our side hoping for a correction. It's comforting to know that even if the VI machine continues to influence the sheeple, unfortunately there's just not buyer firepower there used to be. It's over. Fact.
3. Pelethar said...
There's nothing wrong with this data or even the way they've presented it - no reason for anyone to be getting defensive.
They point out very clearly that although there has been a very small uplift in absolute terms from December to January, this still represents the worst January since records began 14 years ago, and is 38% down from January 2007.
They do not provide the historical data but I suspect there is always an uplift in numbers in January just because of normal changes in activity between those two months. The trend line is still steeply heading downwards, and I think that's pretty clear from this article.
4. p. doff said...
I saw something that greatly amused me whilst out for a constitutional walk through town with the missus yesterdays sunny afternoon. The local estate agent has those rotating board displays in the window and every single property had a red tag saying 'new instruction'. Must be a load of people suddenly deciding to sell for some reason, I thought. As I watched, all the boards simultaneously turned round and every property on the other side had a red tag saying 'price reduced'!!!
Connells may be right about the rise in housing stock for sale, but as we all know, greater supply may lead to more competition between sellers and hence a reduction of prices.
5. Uncle Fargas said...
They will always rise in January - I assume there is no seasonal adjustment here. There are fewer business days in December.
6. jack c said...
The local free paper turned up on my doormat last week for the first time since Christmas and roughly 50% is dedicated to Estate Agent advertisements - a quick flick through and I found the majority of houses had "new/reduced prices" on them !
7. monty032 said...
Well of course mortgage approvals increased from December to January, because there were only 19 business days in December but 22 in January. So in fact there were 3,842 approvals per business day in December and 3,423 in January - a FALL of 11%. You have to wait to the second paragraph to get a meaningful figure, which is that mortgage approvals compared to last January fell by 38%. The writer was obviously told to come up with some positive figure to put in the first paragraph, however misleading.
8. uncle chris said...
Good work Monty :-)
9. The Haunted said...
Well spotted Montey. The trouble with statistics is they can be made to show almost anything you want them to depending on the context youu set them in. I'll just keep an eye on the house prices that I see getting reduced etc. and form my own opinion. If only the rest of the peeps were not as trusting and challenged what they are being told.
10. dugmug said...
Headline: "Surprise, Surprise, there aren't quite as many houses sold in December because everyone's more interested in Christmas!"
What a shock. And conversely I bet the number of turkeys that were sold was lower in January too!! Unless buying a house right now is the same as buying a "turkey".... :-)
Spot on Monty, the key point here is "Compared to January 2007, the decline in approvals was 38%"
11. Maggot said...
saw it was a vi and gave it the seconds it deserved.
12. new user 2007 said...
I think these numbers are harder to fudge, so we will see the work day effect next month. To be fair to them, in a country of 60mn there has to be some moving and mortgaging going on:) And they do give a balanced representation in the story.
Think of it as the natural rate of unemployment (even if there were two jobs for everyone there would still be a 2%+ unemployment rate owing to job changes, chosen breaks etc).