Tuesday, Feb 12, 2008
Mortgage approvals fall from 125,000 to 75,000 in January
Firstrung: Mortgage approvals for January down 38% vis a vis January 2007
This is what Connels say: "Mortgage approvals for house purchase rose 3 per cent in January according to the latest data from Connells Survey & Valuation. Mortgage approvals rose to 75,300 in January from their December low of 73,000 representing the first increase in mortgage approvals since May 2007"
This is the reality:
However, approvals have fallen 38% compared with January 2007, when almost 125,000 mortgage were approved, while approvals have reached their worst January level since Bank of England records began in 1994.
and the mainstream 'meeja' wonder why some folk are suspicious (at best)
Posted by converted lurker @ 11:11 AM (951 views) Add Comment
11 Comments
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1. maddison said...
It's not news that transactions are down and estate agents are worried. What really matters to us is the actual prices that people are prepared to pay. By now I would be expecting to see more BTLers starting to market their properties at least.
2. Si said...
Maddison
Looks like they may be over here. New properties coming to market peaked at over 200 in one day very recently.
(Search Bristol, last 24 hours, in rightmove)
Si
3. shipbuilder said...
To be fair we can't start quoting the yoy figures here and dismiss them when talking about price falls. As always, the real trend wille emerge over a few months.
4. Japanese Uncle said...
To: Ross Bowen, managing director of Connells Survey & Valuation
From: Royal Institution of Professional Property Charlatans
Re: Designation of Certified Property Charlatan (CPC)
You are hereby qualified as Certified Property Charlatan in consideration of your recent valuable contribution to the rigging of the UK property market by offering effective propaganda to the potential house buyers, without regard to the damage to your good reputation (if any remaining). This is an exceptional case of designation which usually involves successful completion of the following modules.
Philosophy & Theology (Mammonism)
Manipulative statistics
Manipulative economics
History of bubble economies
Instigative media psychology
Creative accounting & window dressing
Legitimate tax evasion
Demonstration of your selfless dedication to the industry deserves our utmost recognition and appreciation. In particular, the phrase as follows in your recent statement shall be remembered long in the halls of property charlatanry as one of the most skillful cases of manipulative statistics by which you gave the impression that mortgage transaction was on an increase by not providing year-on-year comparison, but referring to the change from the previous month only, resulting in a spectacular success:
---------------------------
"This modest increase in house prices reflects the slight improvement in mortgage demand. It is likely we will see monthly rises and falls in prices in the first half of the year."
------------------------------
Yours Sincerely,
Humpty Dumpty,
Chairman
Royal Institution of Professional Property Charlatans
5. japanese uncle said...
To: Ross Bowen, managing director of Connells Survey & Valuation
From: Royal Institution of Professional Property Charlatans
Re: Designation of Certified Property Charlatan (CPC)
You are hereby qualified as Certified Property Charlatan in consideration of your recent valuable contribution to the rigging of the UK property market by offering effective propaganda to the potential house buyers, without regard to the damage to your good reputation (if any remaining). This is an exceptional case of designation which usually involves successful completion of the following modules.
Philosophy & Theology (Mammonism)
Manipulative statistics
Manipulative economics
History of bubble economies
Instigative media psychology
Creative accounting & window dressing
Legitimate tax evasion
Demonstration of your selfless dedication to the industry deserves our utmost recognition and appreciation. In particular, the phrase as follows in your recent statement shall be remembered long in the halls of property charlatanry as one of the most skillful cases of manipulative statistics by which you gave the impression that mortgage transaction was on an increase by not providing year-on-year comparison, but referring to the change from the previous month only, resulting in a spectacular success:
---------------------------
"This modest increase in house prices reflects the slight improvement in mortgage demand. It is likely we will see monthly rises and falls in prices in the first half of the year."
------------------------------
Yours Sincerely,
Humpty Dumpty,
Chairman
Royal Institution of Professional Property Charlatans
6. Converted Lurker said...
no no no...mortgage approvals are the best indicator of where this market is headed. Unlike other indices you can't fudge them other than by downright invention, even then you can't invent mortgages, unless you pay people to take them out and Northern Rock have already tried and failed at that...
Most people can only use other peoples' money to pay the prices asked, now that money has evaporated the market (mortgage and houses) implodes.
7. Bye_to_let said...
Yeah but signs like this are making it look like the next few months are going to go in the right direction
8. dbnazz1 said...
As the old saying goes, what a difference a day makes.
It took just one day to show the comments from Connells as the utter bo*lo*ks that they were talking.
9. converted lurker said...
bdnazz..yep a weird one, although TBF the Connells release was OK, it's just that the meeja got hold of it and re-spun it alarmingly. It was only 21% down vis a vis December now 38% down vis a vis Jan, this is very, very scary given how quickly this turnaround has been. Approval figures were relatively steady up until Sept/October, since then they have been pushed off a cliff with Wil E Coyote ACME sponsored tnt strapped on for extra boost.
The next 'official' approval figures from the BBA, followed by the BoE, will be as dire as Connells IMHO, this is THE 'space' to watch
10. happyrenterz said...
Nice find CL, we got to keep these VI's honest by exposing their devious stats.
11. jack c said...
Good postings Converted L - the other thing that would give us a better idea of precisely what is happening in the market is a breakdown between approvals for purchases and those for re-mortgages - seems a lot of brokers at the moment are relying on re-mortgage business which is really just revolving the same old money.
I agree this is one of (if not the) best indicators - in the short term I think we will get price stagnation before the falls (and a cliff could be fast approaching)