Monday, Feb 11, 2008
More good news
My Finances: House prices down 0.3%
UK property prices fell by 0.3 per cent in January, but fears of a market collapse are groundless, according to the latest housing survey.
Chesterton's Poll of Polls conducted by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) found the average price of a property was £146,662 last month, compared to £140,276 in January 2007 - revealing prices have increased over the year.
Posted by bufferbear @ 08:49 PM (727 views) Add Comment
11 Comments
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1. Montesquieu said...
Lipstick on a pig ...
'Robert Bartlett, chief executive of Chesterton, the estate agency which commissioned the survey' .... concluded: "I think these figures show now is a perfect time to buy."
Jeez .....
2. Davros said...
With prices beginning to fall, now is a perfect time to buy!
Good advice there.
3. bystander said...
Chesterton's Poll of Polls - says it all really doesn't it
What is the point of doing these polls as everyone who commisions polls has a vested interest in one result or another. What is interesting at the moment is that there are a lot more people fighting their corner in the 'prices only ever go up' camp than there have been for a long time. There is real fear in the air - fear brought on by uncertainty. No-one knows what is going to happen - we can hypothesise, but until it happens, all we can do is prepare.
4. paul said...
"but fears of a market collapse are groundless, according to the latest housing survey"
But prices just ... keep ... going ... down. How inconvenient!
5. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
"Robert Bartlett, chief executive of Chesterton, the estate agency which commissioned the survey, said he thinks prices are undergoing a correction.
He concluded: "I think these figures show now is a perfect time to buy. There is a wide range of properties on the market and some bargains to be had."
LOL.
A poll on whether to buy a house or not paid for by an estate agent. LOL
That like asking Gordon Brown whether to vote Labour or not. Pointless.
6. new user 2007 said...
I think the key point is that each pillar is disappearing one by one so their stories are becoming shorter? i.e. it is becoming harder and harder to make up things as the data is becoming more and more obvious against their own words.
Nationwide prices
% change mom % change yoy annual % change
2008 Jan 180473 -0.88 4.18
Feb 180473 0.00 3.30
Mar 180473 0.00 1.91
Apr 180473 0.00 0.09
May 180473 0.00 -0.61
Jun 180473 0.00 -1.95
Jul 180473 0.00 -2.06
Aug 180473 0.00 -1.86
Sep 180473 0.00 -2.30
Oct 180473 0.00 -2.99
Nov 180473 0.00 -1.97
Dec 180473 0.00 -0.88 -0.43
So even if prices do not move at all in month-on-month terms we will start to see year on year falls in May. That is even before the impact of the majority (new) BTL starting to bail out to take advantage of the CGT changes in April. So no movement on m-on-m at all will lead to a panic trigger by April/May?
So the best case scenario (for them) is a 0.4% nominal fall (around 4% in real terms assuming inflation and wage growth of around 3%)
7. new user 2007 said...
mom = month on month...for Jan it is -0.88%. The month on month then remains at 0% for the rest of the year.
yoy = year on year...for Jan it is 4.18%.
The -0.43 is the lone figure and gives the annual.
8. Djc said...
I find it both amazing and hilarious that commentators can continue to claim with a straight face that the market will plateau after 11 years of growth, despite the fact that this has *never, ever happened*. In fact, history tells us that in the circumstances a crash is inevitable.
9. enuii said...
YOY growth of less than 4% will be the trigger for the mass exit, February is the key Month.
IMHO March will see large rises in property numbers for sale way above seasonal norms.
10. Yakov said...
bystander - "but until it happens, all we can do is prepare" !! - I think it's already here. There are properties being sold at massively reduced rates now. Febuary and March will see the VI's uncovered and the reductions will go mainstream. Property correction is here, now.
11. new user 2007 said...
I am not sure about the timing. I just think May as there is no way a newspaper can interpret that as good news i.e. having a year on year fall will play a key role in terms of sentiment. The timing of this fall will depend on the month on month data...
...I have just assumed an average of 0% month on month growth as I think there will be several months of up and down in the monthly data (month on month prices could rise from now to May but then start falling, but that would mean the year on year declines will take longer to occur).