Friday, Feb 15, 2008
Hoping for the best.......
times online: Bonus rich bankers to reignite UK housing market
''Spring house buying will be revitalised by bankers who expect City bonuses to match or outweigh last year's.
Signs of life are re-emerging in the property market as it prepares to enter the spring buying season, as agents herald the return of bargain-hunting first-time buyers and City professionals with bonus cash to spend.''
Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:18 AM (1277 views) Add Comment
28 Comments
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1. inbreda said...
I think hope is all they have left.
2. hpwatcher said...
The real meat of this article:-
''“The ones that have been notably missing are Citibank, Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Bear Stearns, UBS and Société Générale.''
Which indicates a real cut of the number of people who are looking.
Moreover, any banker prepared to waste their money buying property deserves everything they get; there are far better things to invest money in than property.
3. techieman said...
This is all about perception. Of course they know that the bonus earned for this year may be different from the bonus earned from last year, so they may very well be a little more cautious - particularly since they also see a potential for a recession. In any case remember the "green shoots of recovery" and how wrong that was, and how many times there was no recovery - falling knives and all that. The rest of the article concerns the BTLs and how they are looking for bargains. That may also be true but the professionals will stay out until (or if they can find a repossession) when the numbers stack up. Infact because of the tax rule changes they could lock in some profit and repace the portfolio with some new properties, again subject to my point before, a bit like a "bed and breakfast"deal. Even though the transaction charges would make that a big risk.
I dont think people should get carried away on this site - we are bound to see retracements on the way down if we have hit the top (and the first retracement is often quite pronounced). I wouldnt be surprised at a massive campaign in the spring and for a move back up when people would be saying that the "doomsters" are wrong "again".
4. theboltonfury said...
where i now live there has no been no 'retracement' at all, nevermind anything pronounced
5. quiet guy said...
It's a bit of a mixed bag this article. It starts off talking about banker's megabonuses then switches to FTBs?!?
'Peter Bolton King, chief executive at the NAEA, said he expected the market to be relatively quiet until May, before picking up for the rest of the year: “The return of buyers and particularly first-time buyers early in 2008 marks a significant change in the fortunes of the market.” '
Then it go on about BTLers as well.
I can believe that rich London bankers may create a mini surge in London prices but FTBs and BTLers? I doubt it.
6. handle_it said...
Didn't this paper used to have some credibility ? So a few daft FTB with some money from daddy and Tarquin in his 911 are going to save the day ! Hoooooray :o)
7. hpwatcher said...
It's a pretty mixed up article....from a mixed up journalist.
She must be losing her marbles.
8. theboltonfury said...
aren't rich London bankers considered to be shrewd with money (obviously not all). Surely these people would be acutely aware of economic predictions and house price trends. Even thought they may buy, isn't it just as likely that they prey on the falling knife and make lo-ball offers, thus setting a precedent for even lower prices?
9. hpwatcher said...
'' dont think people should get carried away on this site - we are bound to see retracements on the way down if we have hit the top (and the first retracement is often quite pronounced). I wouldnt be surprised at a massive campaign in the spring and for a move back up when people would be saying that the "doomsters" are wrong "again".''
Indeed. Funny how bad news for the housing sector is quickly followed by some GREAT news i.e. usually from Daily Express. All in all, it makes for very confusing reading for anyone wishing to make sense of it all.
10. paul said...
This is a joke.
Hardcore property porn queen Judith Heywood.
She's getting desperate - for the sorry lack of buyers right now, next it'll be gonzo shots of her showing herself around properties cooing and muttering "I'll take it! Yessss. It's lovely. Oooh yeah give me more ... yeah I wannit so bad ... "
Time to look at career options love. Your current one is not becoming ...
11. Davros said...
This is journalism, this is advertising.
12. Landedgentry said...
They really are clucthing at straws now,
13. confused76 said...
The article is a joke
"Spring housebuying will be revitalised" (meaning is dead) "by bankers who expect City bonuses to match or surpass last year's rewards" but noticeably no UBS, Merril, Citi, etc,
"Agents are expecting a steady market from now until the end of spring as confidence seeps back into parts of the market, despite rising inflation dashing hopes of a further interest rate cut." so there is really no news here. It is agents who expect to cling on their jobs. what else?
"with particularly interest in property in Kensington, Belgravia, Clapham and Fulham." so if you are in Hammesmith, Islington, no chance
“We have seen people lots of people come in from Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers and a few from JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank.
“The ones that have been notably missing are Citibank, Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Bear Stearns, UBS and Société Générale."
AH HHHHHHHHHHHH HAHHHHHHHH HAHHHHHHHH HAHAHAHAHH H
AAAHHH HHH AAAAAAHHHAHHAHAH AHH AHHAHHH
now the estate agents are head hunters too!!!
This statement is a joke, it is manufactured! I cannot believe buyers would register and tell where they work and how much was their bonus!!!
AHH AHHHAHHAHAHH HAHHAHAH
Shame on the journalist and the Times!!
14. stillthinking said...
Who cares what the people think now?
The banks have lost confidence in housing.
15. techieman said...
@ bolton - I didnt mean a retracement (against a downward trend) NOW, i just said on the way down there will be retracements. I dont think we will have a major retracement this spring (but we will have a campaign for one) and that ANY retracement will be heralded as a trip to new highs and we should be aware of this possibility. When they will say the doomsters are wrong i think they will be! Now NEXT spring we are more likely to have a more meaningful retracement. Having said that i think there may be a small blip up in the next couple of months that the bulls will obviously exaggerate . Sorry if it wasnt very clear.
Doesnt change the trend though. Your second point is right IMO - they are generally shrewd so i think "obviously not" is "obviously not" right ;-).
16. monty032 said...
Judith Heywood is shamelessly talking up the property market, but fails almost completely to produce any statistics to support her arguments. If I were to plug Invensys shares as shamelessly as this, then I would have to state that I own Invensys shares and options, otherwise I could quite fairly be accused of talking up the market for my own profit. (And if I did I would at least include some relevant statistics to support what I was saying.)
It is time that property journalists be made to state at the end of each article, for example, "Judith Heywood is an owner-occupier in Kensington and owns buy-to-let properites in Clapham and Fulham". (I made this up, but she does make a point of talking up those particular districts, among others.) Then everyone could see whether the journalist has a vested interest.
17. C'mon Correction said...
This is a critical time for the V.I.'s, if they can't talk up the market in the spring-time, then the battle is lost and prices will keep falling right through the year. They will go in over-drive in the amount of bull-sh!t and twisted stats they produce in their housing reports. I predict we'll have some Nationwide and Halifax etc reports stating 0.5% - 1% increase in prices over the next few months - it won't be true and will contradict a lot of other data but they'll publish it.
The government will/has done the same with the ONS reporting 2.2% CPI - virtually every other country in the world has reported a much larger jump in their CPI's.
Next 3-4 months - V.I. bull-sh!t over-drive - it'll be annoying to watch but fun to see how far they'll go with it !!
18. Bye_to_let said...
There's more chance of turning water into wine!! They deservce their bonuses if they can pull it off
Pure desparation and it's great to see!!!
19. A Saver said...
monty032@14
Couldn't agree more re disclosure of vested interests by journos and this should apply to ALL media (BBC and Channel 4 take note!). Unfortunately there a great many people who are not bright enough to work this out for themselves. Anyone care to start a campaign? Write to the Broadcasting Standards Authority?
20. Bank Cheque said...
So let me see, the bankers allow any Tom, Dick and Harry to have a mortgage, then package up those sub-prime mortgages as AAA rated bonds. All of a sudden they change their tune and admit they bought and sold each other toxic debt. Suddenly we have a credit crunch, refinancing is unavailable and the ninja mortagees get repossessed. Tens of billions of dollars worth of assets held by the banks get written down and yet the very people who started the catastrophe are rewarded with continued massive bonuses - which they use to buy up properties going cheap due to the credit crunch.
You couldn't make it up. Essentially what we're seeing is a transfer of wealth out of the hands of bank shareholders via customers into the hands of bank employees. Surely this is embezzlement by proxy?
21. Letthemfall said...
Has there ever been a time when so many attempts have been made to talk up a market? Old Norman Lamont was one for his 'green shoots of recovery', straight from the book of Chancellor cliches, but the deluge of wide-eyed property pumping is something else. Perhaps it shows the numbers of people who stand to lose a lot of money from sticking all they have (plus big borrowings) in a single investment. When the likes of Konnie Huq are into this, you know it's really caught hold. Blue Peter will never be the same again.
22. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
"bargain-hunting first-time buyers"
Maybe she would like to define exactly what she means by that statement. Any buyer should be looking for a bargain.
As well as the fact I don't see many bargains around? Yet.
Once again the she is trying to imply that the nations housing market is pinned up by City bonuses.
I wonder how much she gets paid by interested third parties to write this stuff?
23. wdbeast said...
The property market is fundamentally dependant on the purchasers of entry price property, we have historically called these “First Time Buyers or FTBs.
During the last decade FTBs have become priced out of the market and have been mainly replaced by the Buy To Let Investor or BTL.
Nothing new, we all know this.
We now have a market that has destroyed BTL as an investment (nil capital growth and low yield).
FTBs are not only priced out of the market, they would struggle to get a mortgage even if they did want to buy.
Unless these City boys with their large bonuses are planning to underpin the UK housing market by purchasing all the inner city BTL disaster flats and all the starter homes on the market at current asking price, there is only one possible result!
Pull up an armchair and enjoy the rest of the show!
24. techieman said...
Letthemfall - Konnie Huq can do no wrong in my eyes...but i agree she has a degree in Economics i think from Cambridge - so she should know better!!
25. James said...
Gents - as a 'City boy' I can honestly say this is piffle. Absolute nonsense.
Some firms (esp. Goldman's, the lucky sods) have been able to pay their people properly this year - *most* banks' comp is flat or down on last year. Also, don't forget that banks had a great year pre-July, so there was 6m of earnings to spread around. Year coming looks a bit more difficult...
From personal knowledge, all my peers with decent bonuses but no mortgage yet are sitting this one out. Besides - if things get really bad, City jobs will be the first to go and who wants to be stuck with a brand new mortgage in that case? Distinctly imprudent.
26. techieman said...
James were Goldman's really lucky? Or did they just control their traders from the back-office and the whole firm decided that CDOs were no longer a long play and should be shorted. Not sure thats luck - regardless of whether or not its - shall we say - interesting practice. I would accept an interesting comment on this from a "City Boy". Thats not meant as an insult btw.
27. James said...
Not taken as an insult! Self proclaimed after all.
Naw, 'lucky's facetious. I doubt they've got any more controls (in the compliance sense) than anyone else particularly. What they do have is an extremely strong management team, able to see the big picture and tell their CMO 'experts' where to get off if they thought they were holding positions for any longer than necessary to bank the fees.
As for it being 'interesting' practice - forgive me if I assume you mean slightly unethical (that seems to be the way we're perceived generally) dealbreaker did an excellent post on this:
http://www.dealbreaker.com/2007/12/post_630.php
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