Thursday, Feb 28, 2008
'fessing up
CNBC: Bernanke's Bank Comment Rattles Stocks
"I expect there will be some failures''
Posted by alan @ 04:49 PM (882 views) Add Comment
17 Comments
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1. harold said...
Gold up again on the news...
2. hpwatcher said...
I just don't think he knows what he is doing, or he sadly lacks the courage of his convictions...
3. techieman said...
These shares are Duke of York markets!! Violent whipsaws and stuck in a range, not for the fainthearted. He does know what to do...hes gonna cut and hope that inflation sorts itself out. Most of the agri commodities look like blow off tops and are extremely overbought. There could be a big fall in those and it could be quite soon, perhaps after a bit more blow-off action. He said yesterday that its the relative increases from where we are now thats the issue (so he is accepting some more inflation coming through in the short term). Now if he is wrong then .......
4. jack c said...
Fortunately George W knows the score having said the US economy is not heading towards recession but is in a "slowdown". news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7269529.stm
5. hpwatcher said...
''However, he does not anticipate a period of stagflation - where stagnant economic growth and inflation coincide - saying that economy's current problems are "nowhere near" the set of issues that led to the stagflatory environment of the 1970's.''
How can he possibly know?
I think what is happening now is potentially far worse...
6. techieman said...
hpwatcher - what he thinks and what he has to say are two different things. Of course hes going to say that - he cant say everything is rosy in the garden because EVERYONE knows thats not the case. But clearly he has to put positive spin on these things. They are all the same - Look at Lawson and Lamont - both of them admit there were forces beyond them (but they didnt say that at the time!). Look at Greenspan - I mean of course he knew that he was putting off the recession by coontinuing inflating but he also knew (and has been quoted) as saying that eventually things would get very nasty.
I mean where he is now is inherited, he will actually probably go down in history as the worst Chairman of the Fed...but we shall see.
7. jack c said...
@ techieman - your post at (3) A rogue trader dealing in wheat future contracts has caused his company more than $140m (£70m) in losses. Trading giant, MF Global, said it detected unusual trades at one of its US offices on Wednesday.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7269532.stm
8. Hpwatcher said...
''...what he thinks and what he has to say are two different things...''
Yes, but the danger is that his actions will look more & more out of touch.
9. techieman said...
Thanks Jack - yep its gonna get hairy!! Gold is spiking. up to 972, im looking to sell (liquidate 10% of core holding - not short) on stop at the lower low (so 952 tomorrow) and if it goes higher again tomorrow i'll get out on stop below that low. Dow staging a recovery and Ftse - bless it - keeps on bouncing off that trendline!
10. trough2010 said...
fair enough techieman to liquidate gold - especially after its fast appreciation - but what else hedges better against inflation? the Fed has lost the plot and is endangering the credibility of the entire fiat money system built around us since the abandonment of the gold standard. unless you find an alternative store of value fast in the current economic climate, i see no other direction for gold but up. we'll see $1,000 breached very shortly.
11. harold said...
techieman, you sure sound as if you know what you are doing - thanks for the posts. However, IMHO it might not be a bad idea (at the moment) to forget the charts and ask yourself a simple, psychologically based question regarding gold: what does the market want? As I'm sure you know markets are aspiring and inquisitive places, and right now my guess is that it wants to know what $1000/oz feels like. The market aspires to it and sooner rather than later it will have its way. Yes, I think you're right that gold is spiking, but how far has it to go? As I've said before, I think the current bull could go to ca $1250 (S2R1 thought $1500) before correcting (probably to current levels). What correction there is however will in all likelihood be realively short before the bulls take charge again. The inflation genie is not about to be put back in the bottle.
12. sirgoogle said...
The money has to go somewhere now property and techy stocks have been found out
Alternative Energy - thats the next bubble. Start investing and see the rise as the sheeple follow in a year's time !!
After Alternative Energy the next bubble will be ..perhaps .. tulips again ?
13. happyrenterz said...
Techieman you are a trader and probably know what you are doing. But for the likes of me, don't sell gold now! This is like cancelling your insurance as soon as the fire breaks out. The inflation in these commodities and gold was born in 2001 when interest rates went to 1%. It didnt happen then because of China. But now inflation in commodities is only playing catch-up so not a bubble waiting to pop. Oil and agri shortages are based on supply issues not speculation. China and India are burning more oil, eating more meat and therefore need more grain, and alt energy is required to offset global warming.
Bernanke has only said what we all know. Financial institutions are not revealing their losses, not "marking to market". Hedge funds and small banks are going to fail, they are not going to be able to stay solvent long enough till the big money starts investing again in their products.
14. techieman said...
hey well as someone once said you never get poor taking a profit. I am long of a quite large core holding averaging around $350 from ages ago. I sold some (40%) at 916 - am looking to sell the next 10% around these levels. Basically when (and this is not meant to offend anyone) everybody thinks its going up then thats when i get nervous. I still will have 50% left, so its not like i disagree with you or anything - its just a long while back i decided to liquidate near these levels - am im not going to change that view. All this talk of it going to the moon may be right or it may not - so im just being conservative. Although you may think i know what im doing everyone has an opinion to which they are entitled. Maybe im mr contrarian by nature! When i was buying everyone thought i was mad ;-).
15. happyrenterz said...
techieman glad you have done well. Well done, you surely earned it if you bought at $350 when they called gold a barbaric relic. To me gold is "money in the bank", except I don't trust banks or fiat currency with all my savings. I don't mind if gold stays around these levels for another year while the mayhem plays itself out in the financial world. If it goes to the moon then all the better, but that chance may be smaller than winning the jackpot.
16. harold said...
techieman
"...when everybody thinks its going up then thats when i get nervous." Agreed, and a correction is sure to come. However, gold-fever on a large scale has yet to happen. The views of a relatively few HPC bloggers do not constitute "everyone" - like we're the sheeple. Well done on buying at 350 - I was only in a position to invest when we sold-up and rented in late 2005.
17. techieman said...
harold - yes well by Everyone i'm not really referring to here. I mean the market...im not talking about the Drewster hairdresser indicator - if we go to the moon then that is the indicator for liquidiating the rest IMO. No, I was talking about the Commitment of traders.
See this: http://www.technicalindicators.com/gold.htm.
Also see http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacbtlf.htm and do a search for "GOLD".