Thursday, Feb 14, 2008
Barclays Capital - inflation, higher interest rates, lower house and share prices and economic volatility
Telegraph: Bleak outlook for economy echoes 1970s
Barclays Capital strategist Tim Bond predicted a period of painful retrenchment from today's "unsustainable" levels of household debt, and said the bursting of credit and housing bubbles was inevitable.
Posted by jack c @ 10:21 AM (774 views) Add Comment
13 Comments
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1. wdbeast said...
It would appear that the penny has dropped.
This kind of article is very important as it demonstrates the willingness of the press to start to discus (and disclose) the problems our economy and society are likely to face over the next decade.
It looks like Merv has opened dear old Pandora’s box!
2. wiltshire said...
Sadly, as with the state of the environment, it's all now too little too late. The discussions that are now about to happen should have taken place 3 or 4 years ago, so an attempt at deflating the bubble in a controlled manner could have taken place rather than the painful bursting we are about to live through. People on this site have known for years that it was all going to end in tears, how come it's taken this long for others to start discussing it? No one was interested whilst they were living high on the hog, they knew it couldn't last but they couldn't stop themselves.
3. hpwatcher said...
At last people are beginning to wake up.
4. dbnazz1 said...
Well, fair play to the man. He has been willing to publicly admit what not many other Vi's have.
5. techieman said...
but but but i dont understand Greenbay said there is no bubble, and he has built up a fewge portfolio of propertys and now hes a millyonhair, so he must know what hes talking about and must be a better all round heconomist and person than us. And he keeps remortgaging so them prices must keep going up.No Barclays bloke must be wrong - silly man!
6. nopensionnohouse said...
@ techieman "but but but i dont understand...."
Snigger, snigger!
7. sold 2 rent 1 said...
A return to the 1970s implies rocketing IRs and that is just not possible with todays debt levels.
Debt was not a problem in the 1970s - it is now.
Hyperinflation or deflationary depression are the only 2 options
8. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Debt was the solution the the 1970s problems which is why we are in such a mess now
9. handle_it said...
""It is highly likely that many economic enterprises and whole industry sectors will be unable to adapt." Would anyone like to expand on this ? Seems a bit vague
10. Larry Pickleman said...
At last I'll be globally competitive and will be able to export my web skills to make repossession websites! :)
11. sold 2 rent 1 said...
""It is highly likely that many economic enterprises and whole industry sectors will be unable to adapt." Would anyone like to expand on this ? Seems a bit vague
Any industries that rely on non-essential expenditure. That's pretty much everything except basic food and energy.
12. theboltonfury said...
sorry sold 2, I'm still not sure what sort of industries you mean?
13. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Travel, leisure, holidays, finance, luxury clothes, quality food/restaurants, cars, construction etc.
Even coffee and sandwich shops will struggle as people take teabags to work and make their own lunch.
We are looking at belt tightening at unprecidented levels.
There might be a short timelag before this happens as we take on even more debt to maintain our current lifestyle.
There will be a time when this debt bubble implodes through hyperinflation or deflation.