Tuesday, Jan 29, 2008
This months report
Land Registry: House price index for Dec 2007 - Released 29th Jan 08
The December data shows a monthly price change of -0.4 per cent and an annual increase of 6.7 per cent. This month’s average house price is £184,469.
This month’s data provides evidence of a downward trend in house prices. Although the annual growth rate remains positive, this month’s price fall is a clear indication of a weakening market.
This month is the first time since the minor slowdown in 2005 that average prices for England and Wales have experienced negative monthly change.
Posted by nopensionnohouse @ 12:59 PM (1360 views) Add Comment
23 Comments
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1. nopensionnohouse said...
Steady as she goes …. Is that creaking I can hear?
2. Bubbles. . . . said...
ITS starting to hissssssssssssssss!!! slowly but surely just hope no more air is pumped in..to re-inflate..!
3. Landedgentry said...
Fire in the hole!
4. nopensionnohouse said...
You can't polish a turd! The more you rub the more sh1t comes off!
5. wdbeast said...
Whenever I look at the land registry stats they always appear to be rubbish if you drill down into them.
Big headline reads that East Midlands (where I live) prices -3.3% on the month.
However:
Derbyshire -0.4%
Leicestershire +0.1%
Lincs -0.2%
Northants +0.1%
Notts +0.9%
Rutland +0.2%
Total E.Midlands -3.3% ?????????
These were the counties that made up the East Midlands the last time I looked!
They cannot have used any weighting, so if the East Midlands figures are cr4p, it is a fair assumption that the rest of this report is toilet paper too.
6. wdbeast said...
The North East's +2.2% looks a little dodgy too!!!
Northumberland +1.7%
Tyne and Wear 0.0%
Durham +0.1%
Total North East +2.2%?????
7. nopensionnohouse said...
Good points well made!
I have written to the landregistry and asked them the question.
I'll post a reply in a new topic if & when they reply.
8. nopensionnohouse said...
Actually it's all here if you can be bothered to read it!
http://www.calnea.com/LandRegistryIndex.pdf
9. Ttimgg said...
I have posted this before, so apologies for the repetition...
It is strange but true that the price of every house can go down, yet the average go up.
Impossible you say! No - because you have to take DISTRIBUTION into account. If proportionately more expensive houses are sold in the second sample, it will push the average up, even if the price of all houses goes down. This explains the strange results of drilling down into the stats.
10. wdbeast said...
Thanks nopension, I have had a look at Calnea's methodology, which is very interesting if somewhat complicated.
They do not explain however how they compile their regional data.
It in the regional data that is beig widely reported in the headlines (London included)
It looks to me as if Calnea may be producing robust core data that is then being intrusted to a plonker at the land registry who compiles the report for our digestion.
I would appreciate if anyone could shed further light on this to shut me up.
11. nopensionnohouse said...
I called Calnea up and spoke to a very helpful bloke. He is looking into it, has my contact details and is going to get back to me.
He may also reply on this blog (I explained how to get to it).
I’m looking forward to hearing from him!
12. Mark Wadsworth said...
That thing from Calnea is pure genius. It all looks so convincing, but we mere mortals don't have the faintest what they are talking about. I bet these statisticians get together in the evening and have agood old chuckle at how the public let themselves be blinded by science.
13. wdbeast said...
Thanks nopension, should be interesting.
14. confused76 said...
CAMDEN (LONDON) MINUS ONE F*****G PERCENT!!! YES!!
15. confused76 said...
Great post nopension!
But statistics is scam anyway...
I think they doctor these numbers to remove "seasonality"... they are hopeless, how seasonal the Northern Rock fiasco was? why do they bother remove seasonality
At any rate, now we start observing the impact of credit crunch and NR on the transaction prices at deed registration (ie. three months on average after offer acceptance). So.... december minus 3 months that is september, less than half of NR impact is in these numbers, then we are missing the stock market problems, the firing of 8000 people in the city, .... MWAH AHHAHHA HAHAHHAHAH HAHAHA HHAHH AHA
16. ttimgg said...
If proportionately more expensive houses are sold, the average price can go up even if the price of EVERY individual house goes down.
(I know, it sounds impossible, but it's true)
17. sirgoogle said...
For me I need to see a drop in the annual rate of HPI, not just monthly .... before I believe the HPC is happening.
18. nopensionnohouse said...
Hi Jonathan,
Thanks for taking the time to indulge me / us. I’m still very much interested in hearing your detailed words.
The link below shows that many here disbelieve / question statistics… even more so if they can’t be properly explained to the layman. Why bother releasing them otherwise?
Actually, from where I’m sitting the average person on housepricecrash seems to have a better grasp of what is happening out there than most of the so called experts and many have been proved right over time!!
We need accurate information…. We just want it to make sense otherwise we have to ignore it.
I’m sorry if the site crashed on you. I have never heard of this happening before… and for the record I always cut and paste from word as I can’t spell for toffee!
I have taken the liberty of CCing this email to the webmaster of HPC for his FYI.
Please resend me your message and I’ll see to it that the HPC bloggers see your words
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2008/01/blog-this-months-report-10037.php was the original discussion.
Best Regards,
Nopensionnohouse.
________________________________________
From: Jonathan
Sent: 29 January 2008 18:12
To: nopensionnohouse
Subject: Land Registry HPI
Hi nopensionnohouse,
I just wrote a long reply on the blog and now the site has gone down - I'll try again in the morning - a lesson in saving things to notepad if ever there was one!
Thanks for your interest - but as you spotted the difference is in the rolling averages.
Kind Regards,
Jonathan
Calnea Analytics
www.calnea.com
19. planning4acrash said...
What does that mean? That the difference is in the rolling averages? I'm confused!
20. justwatching said...
Patience Sir Google, it will come. I just like seeing red arrows, the more, the merrier.
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