Wednesday, Jan 16, 2008
Is this Elliott wave number 4
Market watch: Gold falls first day in six as traders take profits
Gold is down to $882. If this turns out to be Elliott 4 then it could correct down to the low 800s. What we want here is a longish consolidation and for the 200 dma to catch up before wave 5 takes off and we fly through the $1000 mark.
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:04 AM (583 views) Add Comment
10 Comments
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1. sold 2 rent 1 said...
I might be getting ahead of myself here but there is a real possibility that the wave 5 in gold may coincide with the final capitulation of the USD index down to 72 ish. At this point, after the gold gains have been made, everyone will be totally bullish on gold and totally bearish on the USD, this will then be a great time to switch some of your gold into USD to preserve your prrofits.
What do you reckon techieman.
2. techieman said...
s2r1 - im basking in my glory of caling the (short term) top in gold :-). Although of course i got out too early on the way up! Actually i been in this game too long to be cocky as that often bites you in the proverbials...And all I was doing was applying some rules, which worked......this time. I'm also glad i bought deep out of the money FTSE calls rather than some outright longs in the index itself, so my analysis re the Footsie was just plain wrong. So as always its not what you think its maximising the profit when you are right and minimising them when you are wrong thats the issue.
I'm a bit tied up on stuff I'll have a look later, but i quite liked the COT post yesterday re £ and the funny thing was the reaction of bloggers here to that. Very Agressive ...interesting. The fact remains that in Commodities the Commercials are virtually always right against the small specs.
3. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Do you use Martin Armstrong's model?
It has an amazing track record of tracking capital flows around the world.
It correctly timed the US banking sector's top on Feb 27 last year.
The low in March 2008 will be in the sector where all the money is leaving. What could this be? The banking sector again. The USD? A gold high. Any guesses
The high in April 2009 is the biggie. Which sector will this be? China? Emerging economies? The end of a gold correction before gold mania goes full mainstream.
4. happyrenterz said...
Seems unlikely that gold will correct now when stocks are crashing. It is more likely to be linked to oil but that has been going down for more than a week.
5. techieman said...
@hr Depends what you mean by "Correct" - its fallen from 914 to 880 WHILE stocks are "crashing" or are stocks "correcting"?
6. Urbanbear said...
Taking profits seem dumb, if the delta isn't enough to cover sell and buy back trading costs.
7. happyrenterz said...
@tm it is not about the words used. The point is why would people sell gold when the market is gripped in fear?
8. techieman said...
@hr your right not about words - its about actions and they are (selling that is) or perhaps they are just "profit taking". I'm really not sure myself to be honest, but the price action over the next week or so will determine.
@Urbanbear - what trading costs?
9. techieman said...
s2r1 - I will get back re your dollar index point, ive had a quick look at the dollar index and it looks like some consolidation (with an upward bias) before a new (exhaustion) low to me, and then you are prob right, time to buy . But as ive said thats a quick look - Ill try to work out some levels.
As for the model - no not used too "long term" for me - but looks interesting, thanks for pointing it out (although have seen you post before). If the low then would make sense to be the bank stocks - but again March is a few weeks away, so yes that would be a complete guess!
10. happyrenterz said...
@ tm and s2r The good thing about your charts is that it restricts impulsive buying and selling which can only be a good thing.