Tuesday, Jan 29, 2008
Is it me?
Rightmove: Rightmove.co.uk
Interesting graph from rightmove showing an apparent up-swing in the average monthly asking prices for January when in fact all their data shows a decline in the last three months. mmm. does appear somewhat misleading! ....or is it me??
Posted by stillwaiting @ 10:08 PM (722 views) Add Comment
11 Comments
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1. justwatching said...
It's OK, sorry folks, I sub contracted my 4 year old to draw the graph for them.
Priceless. 'Early January shows signs of market recovery despite time on the market and stock levels hitting record highs in December'
Jan -0.8%
Recovery? Where??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
2. Maihem said...
It looks like they're plotting data about quarter monthly, but the headline figures are month end and the growth figure looks about the monthly average. A great way to get advertising. The bullish papers talk about rightmove showing sudden growth, the bearish papers talk about them showing a stable average house price, and the sensible ones talk about them showing a steady, crash-significant (>=-2.6%pa) correction.
3. Craig said...
Looks like points for DEC and JAN are plotted correctly, the dip seems to be around christmas, either their interoplation has gone wrong or they sample more often than once a month and had some anomalous data at christmas time.
4. Moosetea said...
Interesting but possibly vailid. The trough is halfway between Dec and Jan, which suggests that rightmove collects daily/weekly data which it doesnt publish to the general public. On the same graph there are lots of change that occur in between months. Interesting ;p
5. quiet guy said...
I don't pay much heed to monthly data. I want to see a yearly trend before I get too excited. Personally speaking for properties in my area, advertised by Rightmove, I have observed the following:
- Shared ownership is dominating new build properties at the low end of the market. It wasn't like this a year or two ago. These shared ownership properties don't seem to be selling either. Even at £60K.
- Some properties that have been advertised for months are having a few percent shaved off the asking price; not much but this didn't happen a couple of years ago.
The question is will BoE go mad and slash rates to create another bounce like 2005?
6. converted lurker said...
quiet guy yes, IMHO they'll go further than 2005 and rates will be down to 4% in no time
7. Hyrax said...
I have found the ratio of the number of house asking prices above and below 250,000 mark is a useful ratio. Its also the point at which there is the 1 to 3% trigger in stamp duty.
Its also revealing as an affordability index. There has been a surge in certain locations such as Oxbridge and Southwest locations such as Bath and South Devon in the last few weeks,
that are aspirationally high for those areas compared to those houses already on the market (I am not talking sold prices).
In a nutshell, some second home owners (Londoners?) appear to be selling up high value propertes and are trying to ask their aspirational values (to cover their MEWing?)
rather than the existing local and realistic values - its a dead cat leap.
But it is also about location...the southeast is also moving west. One estate agent recently admitting that more than 60% of their southwest sales come those in the southeast. Interesting times to be sure.
8. Hyrax said...
I have found the ratio of the number of house asking prices above and below 250,000 mark is a useful ratio. Its also the point at which there is the 1 to 3% trigger in stamp duty.
Its also revealing as an affordability index. There has been a surge in certain locations such as Oxbridge and Southwest locations such as Bath and South Devon in the last few weeks,
that are aspirationally high for those areas compared to those houses already on the market (I am not talking sold prices).
In a nutshell, some second home owners (Londoners?) appear to be selling up high value propertes and are trying to ask their aspirational values (to cover their MEWing?)
rather than the existing local and realistic values - its a dead cat leap.
But it is also about location...the southeast is also moving west. One estate agent recently admitting that more than 60% of their southwest sales come those in the southeast. Interesting times to be sure.
9. drewster said...
The uptick appears towards the end of December. Not many people are putting their homes on the market between Christmas and New Year, so I suspect this is just a statistical blip due to low volumes.
10. su said...
Is the graph suggesting that the rate cut has reversed the housing downturn? If so Blanchflower should't need to vote for further cuts.
11. growler said...
I also think the rate will be cut 50pts. But I don't think it will all of a sudden cause a boom. Whilst the money might (big "might" since banks are increasing mortgage costs) be cheaper, they criteria to lend are tougher. On top of that, apart from rose-tinted bespectacled EAs insiting their particular area "is different", anyone I've spoken to is not thinking about buying. I've only heard about people buying a neew house because they want retirement pads (very long run) or HAVE to move due to work etc. Faced with this, I can't see a rise. Given the Land Registry is a lagging indicator, expect a few months at least of "market down" headlines in the news and TV. 3 months worth of LR falls will nip even the most confident of buyers' expectations in the bud. I have a friend who runs an EA on the south coast - he keeps telling me we've done the best thing getting out and renting. Certainly not what he told me 3 years ago.