Wednesday, Jan 16, 2008
Hear no evil...
Firstrung: 2008: Falling house prices probable...a house price crash unlikely - Lombard Street Research
Bad news on the residential property market is coming thick and fast, with real mortgage approvals down by a third since July and the prices balance of the RICS survey now at its lowest point since 1992. The fall in average house prices that was registered in Q4 last year looks set to intensify in coming months. But a peak to trough collapse in prices of 15-20% à la the early 1990s does not seem on the cards.
Posted by converted lurker @ 06:57 PM (440 views) Add Comment
4 Comments
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1. Davros said...
Lombard Street Research, forecasters du jour.
Strange how every headline is saying 'not since the last crash has......'.
Sorry, it's different this time isn't it?
2. European-bear said...
True a crash of 15-20% is not on the cards. I would go for the crash of 30-40%....
3. talking rot said...
There has been much discussion on this Blog about cycles, waves and theories. Historically, the difference between peaks and troughs is approximately one third of peak price. I can not agree with Lombard Street Research peddling the idea that house prices will fall less then a third.
House prices are still more expensive n they were last year although the rate at which they are increasing is lower then before. They have yet to fall at all. When they do start to fall, a degree of momentum will be reached and the "experts" will debate how low will they go - just like last time.
4. Reader said...
"The introduction of home information packs (HIPs) last year [...] have no doubt added to the weakening of housing demand."
How bizarre an assertion is that? Would there be anyone no longer interested in buying a house because they get a free HIP with it now? The only possible effect of HIPs is that speculative sellers who are not really interested in selling but just want to test the waters might not put their house on the market now that it costs them £400.