Thursday, Jan 24, 2008
Estate agent goes missing...
Argus - Local Brighton paper: Crash
The **** is hitting the fan.
Posted by kss @ 08:16 AM (1855 views) Add Comment
29 Comments
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1. hpwatcher said...
Nice article. Thanks for posting.
2. yorkshireman said...
What a great article. I particularly like the line - It's not as good as it used to be but it is still a good market. Most of the problem is that the papers keep going on about it and making people nervous."
We should all be thoroughly ashamed of ourselves, always going on about falling prices. I am off out now to beat myself with nettles. Hold on a minute ! Was it us who talked the prices up to the present ridiculous and unsustainable levels in the first place ? I think not. Oh well, the hair shirt is back in the cupboard and the nettles will live on.
3. M4nclad said...
Looks like they are a few nervous bulls in Brighton. Looking at the comments underneath......
"Brighton will buck the trend", and comments along the lines of the Media is talking us into a crash, etc.
4. M4nclad said...
My favourite comment is :
"Posted by: richboy, brighton on 9:11am today
I sold up in london and I've bought 10 flats in brighton 1 year ago. I'm not really that bothered if prices plunge as I'll just buy some more flats as I'm in it for the long haul. "
I'm sure the entire collection of Sussex EA's have hijacked the comments section!
5. M3 said...
We keep looking at Elliott analysis of the main financial markets - on the basis that if they all went up together, they'll all come down together now that the easy credit plug has been pulled.
But has anyone applied Elliott directly to the UK housing market and I've missed it?
6. hpwatcher said...
''We should all be thoroughly ashamed of ourselves, always going on about falling prices''
Thought crime will be the next thing.
I believe there will be a recession and will tell anyone who will listen, but some folks accuse me of starting it, by talking about it! Are things really that fragile??
7. sovietuk said...
"Mystery still surrounds the sudden closure of Farrells, the estate agents in Goldstone Villas, which abandoned its offices without warning more than a week ago."
The door to the office is probably still open with just a few odd bits of paper blowing around giving the impression that the occupants left in a hurry. The owners are probably now on a beach in Barbados.
8. Landedgentry said...
"gone to work on the trains".
HAHAHAHAHAHA
More like under the trains
HAHAHAHAHAHA
9. yorkshireman said...
hpcwatcher. I thnk things really are that fragile. The comments tell the real story IMO. People whose lifestyle is suported, not by their ability to work and provide for their families, but by the supposed "increase in their wealth" as a result of rising house prices. This situation is happening in parts of the North of England and it is being taken rather more philosophically. We have not talked this situation up, but have warned people of the unfolding problem. Sadly, they have not wished to listen. Ultimately, they will look for someone to pin the blame on.They cannot blame us, me or you hpcwatcher. It is down to their own individual greed and stupidity.
10. Landedgentry said...
"Posted by: Hoogstraten, Beating lowlife tenants with my Italian leather shoes" on 9:21am today
Classic
11. Colutd1 said...
i heard you guys talk things up. can you help me its my little col utd. my dearly beloved col utd. 24 th out of 24. please start blogging something like colchester predicted to win premier league 2009/2010 ny talking it up would be greatfully received thank you james
12. little professor said...
Oh man, the comments section is hilarious!
13. C'mon Correction said...
Col - there is no need to talk things up/down, house prices will fall back to trend (some 40% lower than at the peak in Aug '07) - fact !! Sadly people who have talked up the market over the last decade are the ones that have contributed to the UK's acheiving a staggering £1.5 Trillion worth of debt, that we gotta pay back with interest on top!
Blind leading the blind for too long.
14. Letthemfall said...
Note the range of abusive comments - I used to live in Brighton; still a charming place.(I wonder if that Hoogstraten post is genuine - could be, given his character).
Interesting, though, about the closed agent. I remember last time around (early 90s) the local Seekers going under.
15. cyril said...
judging by the comments the Argus has obviously touched a nerve with the good people of Sussex.
It's a funny part of the world - possibly the centre of conservative middle England although brighton itself has a few lefties.
16. techieman said...
m3 - I have posted before on Elliott. The problem is really that we dont have the data here - wwhereas in the US they do. Take a look at the market oracle site - there is a free Elliott wave subscription (im not affiliated or anything - jusyt you may find useful. I have personally asked for this data on here before - i think little prof did post a chart and i did ask him where he got it from. The other prob is that we have not had alot of owner occupancy for that long. However applying Elliott to the chart of the front of this site we can see the peaks in 1980 and the peak in 1990. Project that by the Golden Ration of 1.618 and you get 16.18 years to add to 1990 as a possible top. The 2005 fall looks like a 4th of the 5th - IF we assume we are in the 5th. Of course we could be in a 3rd with a 4th (now) and then a 5th to come. The point is at the very least this 4th should be (at the very least) the same magnitude of the 1990s fall. Alternatively if we have had the 5th then the fall will be bigger and probably be in an a-b-c form. So it depends on what happens after the initial fall AND the size of that fall. If we are in the 5th Elliott states that the fall will go to the 4th wave of one less degree. So in sum - down in an a-b-c pattern. As for how far - well big to huge!!!
17. sold 2 rent 1 said...
M3,
"But has anyone applied Elliott directly to the UK housing market and I've missed it?"
We are in Elliott wave 5 (wave 1 started in 1996)
Plus we are in Elliott wave 5 - one fractal degree higher (wave 1 started in late 1950s)
Conclusion: at least 50% crash like 1948-56
18. tick tock said...
I think that the comments revel the extent of what one of those blazing white toothed and big haired American quacks would probably call 'denial'.
You can almost smell the fear while reading the 'stop saying that and it will all go away' howls. 'It can't be true Kirsty and Phil would have warned us, the banks would have warned us, the landlord association said that bricks and motar were sound, strong fundamentals, strong demand ....' etc. etc etc.
They lied, you believed, we warned you, you didn't listen.
Unfortunately, its time to pay the piper and no amount of see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil, will change the new market 'fundamentals'.
19. techieman said...
Thanks S2R1 - looks like we agree - do you have a chart?? 1948 - 56 you are obviously a bit older and wiser than yours truly - maybe i should re-evaluate my views on the yellow stuff to co-incide with yours after all!!! ;-). I like alot of bloggers on here who say - I think it will be 10/20/30 etc. percent without having any idea WHY it will be their chosen percentage. Applying Elliott at least gives you a reason for the size of the fall and a "degree" of support!!
20. sold 2 rent 1 said...
This graph shows the 5 Eliott waves of housing affordability (ending in 1992).
We are now at 81 in the index.
It is unclear whether the previous pattern will be repeated.
My gut feeling is that the swings in affordability will be repeated but in much smaller timeframes.
If IRs get cut to 1-2% by 2009 then affordability may get much better again.
By 2010-2011 affordability could tumble again as inflation and unemployment take off
We could see the whole 18 year affordability cycle play out in less than half that time.
21. sold 2 rent 1 said...
techieman,
Junior gold stocks are battered now. They could be a much better buy than gold.
22. techieman said...
s2r1 - cheers for that. Its seems you have been away over the past few days. My general view is that there are two 4th waves in gold on the weeklies of two different degrees, Unless we extend on this 5th then we are heading down. I accept that this could be either way and i know your count doesnt agree. In any case i first pontificated (and traded) gold purely because it looked good to me based on a triangle 4th on the dailies, and then since i needed to get out i did some work on trying to spot the top (period) and a level - AND i got lucky. i have no real affiliation to it one way or the other, except i do have a core (non trading) holding which i've built up over the years (yes years) so i always keep an eye on it (long term weekly chart). Now as things stand it doesnt look an outstanding "punt" (sorry) on the dailies so i just look at other charts for other stuff that does look good. Eg, 5 wave initial move / other 4th triangles etc. It doesnt matter to me what the underlying commodity / instrument is!! Currently spot is $900 (and thats really on Dollar weakness). If the only thing that is moving gold is dollar weakness then frankly id rather trade the currencies!! If we hit a new all time high then im interested to see how far it goes - that would support the extension with the whole move up from dec 17th as a 1, and the move to 849 as a 2. So that would be mega bullish! But ive said on here recently that im sidelined.
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24. dbnazz1 said...
I have an understanding of basic economics but have to admit to being totally lost by all the recent postings on elliot wave. please could someone give me in bref an explanation about theses waves, how they relate to hpc and what they indicate that the likely reduction in prices will be.
25. sold 2 rent 1 said...
techieman,
Was in Chamonix - snowboarding
One website I subscribe to has declared phase III (final phase) of this gold bull to have started.
I am not convinced. I think we still have to have the final blow off on phase II first.
This should happen in the next 12 months
26. techieman said...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle - dbnazz1, essentially different technicians CAN come up with a different counts - but thats a good place to start. You will see mention of Prechter you can do a search on youtube for him. You can take a look at his site www.elliott.com and as i said above Market Oracle are doing a free subscription. At the end of the day its an art rather thn a science, and i use it with other overbought and oversold indicators.
27. C'mon Correction said...
techieman said - " I like alot of bloggers on here who say - I think it will be 10/20/30 etc. percent without having any idea WHY it will be their chosen percentage"
I think and often post that there should be a crash of 40% at some point soon. I say this from looking at the graph on the home page, this shows that prices are some 30% above trend, and the market has historically shot below trend (as it should !), thus I guesstimate 40% drop. I know that's simplistic and likely not to be that precise, but I like to think of it as a common-sense view of ultimately where the market will roughly bottom-out.
28. techieman said...
s2r1 -what a time to go!! - you have missed some fun and games!! Hope it was good - welcome back!
29. techieman said...
@ C'mon Correction - Fair comment! Of course nobody KNOWS its just interesting to get reasoned comments as to why a particular level is seen as a good low point. Should we calculate an average of our views or the median?